"Possibly doctored" cards at the National.....

calvindog · #1 06-25-2019, 11:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by steve B

The only difference between buying that and buying stuff in my range like 52Topps commons in similar grades is that the picture is different and it costs more. Of course I'd examine it more closely than a cheaper card, but from a technical standpoint, it's the exact same decision.

There's a reason seemingly near mint Hall of Famer cards on the BST that are raw are offered at a fraction of the PSA 7-8 value they would receive if graded don't sell. There's a reason why near mint Hall of Famer cards in non-PSA or SGC slabs are offered for a fraction of the value of the identically graded PSA or SGC slabs -- it's because people know the cards are altered or else they'd be in PSA or SGC slabs. There's also a reason no one would ever sell a raw, near mint 52 Mantle -- because he'd be leaving huge money on the table by not getting it slabbed by PSA, because every buyer would assume the card was altered. Which is why no one would ever buy a raw, near mint Mantle for the price of a PSA 6 when the card "looks" like it might be a PSA 7. The difference between a PSA A and a PSA 6 for a 52 Mantle is around 50K. You'd risk 50K to make 50K when the odds are clearly not in your favor?

steve B · #2 06-25-2019, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calvindog

There's a reason seemingly near mint Hall of Famer cards on the BST that are raw are offered at a fraction of the PSA 7-8 value they would receive if graded don't sell. There's a reason why near mint Hall of Famer cards in non-PSA or SGC slabs are offered for a fraction of the value of the identically graded PSA or SGC slabs -- it's because people know the cards are altered or else they'd be in PSA or SGC slabs. There's also a reason no one would ever sell a raw, near mint 52 Mantle -- because he'd be leaving huge money on the table by not getting it slabbed by PSA, because every buyer would assume the card was altered. Which is why no one would ever buy a raw, near mint Mantle for the price of a PSA 6 when the card "looks" like it might be a PSA 7. The difference between a PSA A and a PSA 6 for a 52 Mantle is around 50K. You'd risk 50K to make 50K when the odds are clearly not in your favor?

So lets say the card is at a 6 price, but looks like it could be a 7. I'm confident enough that I could tell if it was altered that I might go for it.
Assuming I don't find anything that would keep it from being a 6, worst case, it comes back a 6 and I've paid full price and will have to wait a bit to flip it. (Or, if I happen to have that much to spend on cards not flip it.) Best case, it comes back a 7 and I have a slightly tougher choice, keep the bargain or flip it.
I would be far less confident if it was a decision between a 7 and 8 and still less if it was between an 8 and 9.

I totally get that hardly any cards of HOF players that are really nice will be offered ungraded. And if I was selling any of my better cards like that I'd probably get them graded. But they are out there, and not every situation is a purchase from a dealer.

The only way to make it anymore as a collector without a nearly unlimited budget is to know more and have a good eye for things. It works better in other hobbies, where the difference between the cheap and expensive is in details that even most dealers don't bother to check for.

packs · #3 06-25-2019, 12:10 PM

But how would a raw 52 Mantle make it to the National at all? Why would it be there at the largest gathering of collectors and not be graded for maximum value? Seeing a raw 52 Mantle should be an immediate flag at any venue, most notably the National. There's no reason for it to be there other than it can't be graded.

calvindog · #4 06-25-2019, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

But how would a raw 52 Mantle make it to the National at all? Why would it be there at the largest gathering of collectors and not be graded for maximum value? Seeing a raw 52 Mantle should be an immediate flag at any venue, most notably the National. There's no reason for it to be there other than it can't be graded.

Of course. And the same goes for seemingly very valuable cards in non-PSA/SGC holders.

drcy · #5 06-25-2019, 02:02 PM

I used my blackllght at the national (on photos), and I would have to go underneath a draped table to use it

I assume many dealers won't let you do that with a Mantle

tschock · #6 06-25-2019, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by drcy

I used my blackllght at the national (on photos), and I would have to go underneath a draped table to use it

I assume many dealers won't let you do that with a Mantle

Would a canvass bag work or possibly even a heavier paper back work? Put the card and the black light in the bag and open the bag up enough to look inside. I haven't tried it (yet), but that might work.

Or for the McGyvers, rig up a 400 count-ish sized box with a black light and hole big enough for your cell phone camera.

steve B · #7 06-25-2019, 03:59 PM

My old blacklight that I need to get working again was usable in a room that was sunlit but not brightly. I never tried it in direct bright light.

But the Versalume was a bit bulkier than the pocket ones that are common.

drcy · #8 06-25-2019, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tschock

Would a canvass bag work or possibly even a heavier paper back work? Put the card and the black light in the bag and open the bag up enough to look inside. I haven't tried it (yet), but that might work.

Or for the McGyvers, rig up a 400 count-ish sized box with a black light and hole big enough for your cell phone camera.

Yes. In fact, rock and gem collectors use that bag technique in the field.

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