Pre-War Correction underway?

[pokerplyr80]

It doesn't take much to move the needle one way or the other with how often many prewar cards come to market. A few guys jumping out or sitting a few auctions out and it can look like the market is crashing. A few guys with deep pockets decide they all want similar cards and prices can jump so fast it looks like market manipulation.

There are a couple prewar cards I'd like to add to the collection. If a drop in prices let's me get in a little cheaper I won't be complaining.

[griffon512]

the matty dark cap psa 6 in ebay currently looks like a 4 at best with the corner wear. not sure what's going on there -- may not be legit. the one with the same grade that sold for $3,100 is off center and has the paper loss you mentioned. the cy young sgc 6 portrait had very poor registration, to the point where part of his face looks removed. it is also miscut. i would have guessed it wouldn't have gone for less than $5k, so $5,800 seems like a good price. i haven't looked at the others you cited, but if i'm surprised by anything it's the resilience of the market overall to this point, ignoring outliers. i think the card market is much more likely to correct from a sustained stock market correction versus any other scenario. the suspension of disbelief is strong.

[barrysloate]

Ryan- be patient and buy good quality cards when the opportunity arises. Don't feel you have to overpay to get nice cards. Things you think will never come around again will in fact come around again, and may be cheaper the second time. You've already put together a beautiful collection so keep adding to it. Being in for the long term is a great way to go.

There may be a short term blip due to this grading fiasco, but long term the hobby will right itself and you should do just fine.

[oldjudge]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Ryan- be patient and buy good quality cards when the opportunity arises. Don't feel you have to overpay to get nice cards. Things you think will never come around again will in fact come around again, and may be cheaper the second time. You've already put together a beautiful collection so keep adding to it. Being in for the long term is a great way to go.

There may be a short term blip due to this grading fiasco, but long term the hobby will right itself and you should do just fine.

Barry--Your advice works to a point. On truly rare cards you buy them when you see them. Pass now and you may never get an opportunity again. I can think of several good examples in 19th century cards and I know you can too.

[HobokenJon]

We'll know soon enough if there's a near-term correction for T206 rare backs, when we see how the current Heritage auction turns out.

It looks like David Hall is selling. I haven't seen any discussion about this on the board yet. Was there a thread that I missed? (I don't post here often, and it's possible I missed it.)

[HobokenJon]

I say that about Mr. Hall, because I remember when this card sold at REA in 2013, and hearing at the time from multiple sources on good authority that he was the buyer. Note that it was in an SGC 60 holder when it sold at REA. I also remember when the crossover showed up as a 4.5 on the PSA pop report shortly afterward (a few months later at most, as I recall).

https://sports.ha.com/itm/baseball/1...ription-071515

https://www.robertedwardauctions.com...-only-example/

Whatever the case, this is a heck of an auction coming up, and it's just the first. It should be a true test of collectors' sentiment.

[BLongley]

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...postcount=3244

Not good!!

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Barry--Your advice works to a point. On truly rare cards you buy them when you see them. Pass now and you may never get an opportunity again. I can think of several good examples in 19th century cards and I know you can too.

Sorry for the late post Jay, just saw this now.

Yes, there are 19th century cards that are unique, or nearly so, so if you can afford them you take advantage of the opportunity when it's there.

But we have a whole class of investors entering the hobby and do you think they are adding Four Base Hits hall-of-famers to their portfolios? It's more like green Cobbs, 52 Mantle's, 49 Leaf Robbys, etc.

So I repeat what I said. Be patient!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by griffon512

the matty dark cap psa 6 in ebay currently looks like a 4 at best with the corner wear. not sure what's going on there -- may not be legit. the one with the same grade that sold for $3,100 is off center and has the paper loss you mentioned. the cy young sgc 6 portrait had very poor registration, to the point where part of his face looks removed. it is also miscut. i would have guessed it wouldn't have gone for less than $5k, so $5,800 seems like a good price. i haven't looked at the others you cited, but if i'm surprised by anything it's the resilience of the market overall to this point, ignoring outliers. i think the card market is much more likely to correct from a sustained stock market correction versus any other scenario. the suspension of disbelief is strong.

Yup. You can't just analyze flips and prices to do a meaningful comparison sometimes. Particularly with just one or two examples of a card. To call a trend I think you would need much more data over a sustained period. Just my opinion.