What I Don't Understand about Baseball Card Economics

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Hi Gary,
So here is something that still troubles me. If the hobby has reached the point where the slightly altered cards are almost impossible to distinguish from the unaltered ones, then what use does the hobby have for third party graders? We pay them a lot of money to make determinations that many of us don't feel qualified to make ourselves. But it appears that as graders and authenticators they are no more skilled than we are.

So it's starting to look like (and truth be told it's been going on for a long time), all of these machinations are reduced down to one thing: getting the number we want on the slab. The whole hobby is really about that number.

Sorry folks, but it's a sad state of affairs. And I don't like it one bit.

I think the hobby has reached the point where under current grading methods altered cards are almost impossible to distinguish from the unaltered ones. And I think to a skilled card doctor we might be talking about more than just the slightly altered. But, because IMO the technology exists to expose these alterations and in time it will be employed by TPGs, it could be very risky to buy the number on the slab if to hold value the card eventually will need to be re slabbed under the newer methods.

[tschock]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

But, because IMO the technology exists to expose these alterations and in time it will be employed by TPGs...

Only if they are held accountable for their 'mistakes'. Otherwise, BAU.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

I think the hobby has reached the point where under current grading methods altered cards are almost impossible to distinguish from the unaltered ones. And I think to a skilled card doctor we might be talking about more than just the slightly altered. But, because IMO the technology exists to expose these alterations and in time it will be employed by TPGs, it could be very risky to buy the number on the slab if to hold value the card eventually will need to be re slabbed under the newer methods.

So if it is true that card doctors do work with such skill that it is basically undetectable, then it seems like there is no premium in having an original undoctored card. Because the card that is pack fresh Mint would be worth exactly the same as the altered Mint. Thus, I suggest that card doctors pick up their pace, and in no time at all every card in the collecting universe will be in Mint condition. Then we can all own the #1 set on the registry, all at the same time!

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

So if it is true that card doctors do work with such skill that it is basically undetectable, then it seems like there is no premium in having an original undoctored card. Because the card that is pack fresh Mint would be worth exactly the same as the altered Mint. Thus, I suggest that card doctors pick up their pace, and in no time at all every card in the collecting universe will be in Mint condition. Then we can all own the #1 set on the registry, all at the same time!

Now isn't that a thought! Alteration becomes essentially impossible to detect causing the supply of high grade vintage cards to soar, and their prices to fall. Or....technology comes to the rescue and such alteration becomes detectable. Under that scenario two things happen, provided that in order to hold value such cards need to be re slabbed under the newer method: 1. The supply of unaltered high grade vintage cards plummet and the true unaltered ones hold or rise in value. 2. The prices of altered ones (the majority) plummet in value.

[darwinbulldog]

What's really going to upset the apple cart is when we find out the Black Swamp Find was just Gary Moser's master's thesis project.

[SMPEP]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

What's really going to upset the apple cart is when we find out the Black Swamp Find was just Gary Moser's master's thesis project.

I have to say ... the first second I heard about this find ... my immediate response was ... why on Earth would anyone believe this claim? I lived in Ohio. I've been in farm houses there. The change in humidity from summer to winter alone should have made folks skeptical.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

What's really going to upset the apple cart is when we find out the Black Swamp Find was just Gary Moser's master's thesis project.

A truly outstanding post.

[Snapolit1]

I assume nearly all of the folks pouring big money into baseball cards are people (men, age 40-70) who are set for life financially (or think they are) and the $100,000 or $500,000 they are spending on a card isn't that huge of a deal all things considered. And they decide for some reason it would be really really cool to own a rare Babe Ruth card. They are going to get a rare Babe Ruth baseball card. It's not like there is some alternative place they can go to get a Babe Ruth card. So this is the sandbox they play in. They hold their nose, do a little research, and take a plunge.

If I decided tomorrow that my life would be complete if I owned a '67 red Camaro and I had the money to do it I would buy one. I doubt I'd be deterred by people pissing and and moaning on an Internet chat board. (I might even think it's a wonderful time to buy one because of all the pissing and moaning.)

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

If I decided tomorrow that my life would be complete if I owned a '67 red Camaro and I had the money to do it I would buy one. I doubt I'd be deterred by people pissing and and moaning on an Internet chat board. (I might even think it's a wonderful time to buy one because of all the pissing and moaning.)

You wouldn't be a little concerned if all that pissing and moaning was discussing the latest FBI counterfeit car sting operation that had just busted a ring manufacturing fake '67 red Camaro's, and that the last 11 sold were fakes?

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

Now isn't that a thought! Alteration becomes essentially impossible to detect causing the supply of high grade vintage cards to soar, and their prices to fall. Or....technology comes to the rescue and such alteration becomes detectable. Under that scenario two things happen, provided that in order to hold value such cards need to be re slabbed under the newer method: 1. The supply of unaltered high grade vintage cards plummet and the true unaltered ones hold or rise in value. 2. The prices of altered ones (the majority) plummet in value.

So I am back to my original premise: why isn't any of this information built into the price of Mint cards? If I'm a buyer and I know anything about what is going on with high grade cards, I'm moving forward with caution. But the current market plows ahead like a freight train.

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

So I am back to my original premise: why isn't any of this information built into the price of Mint cards? If I'm a buyer and I know anything about what is going on with high grade cards, I'm moving forward with caution. But the current market plows ahead like a freight train.

How much of this is understood outside this Board? And even within this Board, there is disagreement how widespread the problem is. I've expressed my opinion. I've never said it reflects the majority view.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

How much of this is understood outside this Board? And even within this Board, there is disagreement how widespread the problem is. I've expressed my opinion. I've never said it reflects the majority view.

I think it's known beyond just this board. And collectors generally interact and talk about the hobby. Probably not everyone knows, but in no way is this some Net54 secret.

[drcy]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

So I am back to my original premise: why isn't any of this information built into the price of Mint cards? If I'm a buyer and I know anything about what is going on with high grade cards, I'm moving forward with caution. But the current market plows ahead like a freight train.

Just concerning the margins of error and subjectivity and flip of the coin of grades, I never understood it.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

So I am back to my original premise: why isn't any of this information built into the price of Mint cards? If I'm a buyer and I know anything about what is going on with high grade cards, I'm moving forward with caution. But the current market plows ahead like a freight train.

Barry, I am not sure the market is plowing ahead. Last night, a very pretty PSA 8, t206 Wajo pitching closed for under $19k - by recent comps, that should have been a $30k+ card. The e98 cobb psa 9 went “cheap” in my opinion, as did the t206 O’Hara polar bear PSA 5, the e105 Wagner PSA 5, the higher grades Lajoies (portrait and throwing), among other cards I was watching with interest. It seems the two cards that did not go cheap that I was watching, were the only two I bid on - the t206 brown Lenox and the t215-1. I think some prices from last night’s auction reflected the fear. Is that short lived? Probably. But I think many cards, especially mid-high grades that I was watching, went a bit cheap

[barrysloate]

That's interesting Ryan, but of course you need a larger sample to see if this is having any impact. I would have to think some collectors are being cautious, but agree that it might be short lived.

[oldjudge]

I’m not a graded card guy, so I’m not talking my book, but I see this having no long term negative impact on PSA. I think they will make some improvements and come out of the current situation stronger than they were. I also don’t think there will be a new grading company entering the field. Unless a new company could compete registry wise, it would be foolish to start. The registry drives everything.

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Barry, I am not sure the market is plowing ahead. Last night, a very pretty PSA 8, t206 Wajo pitching closed for under $19k - by recent comps, that should have been a $30k+ card. The e98 cobb psa 9 went “cheap” in my opinion, as did the t206 O’Hara polar bear PSA 5, the e105 Wagner PSA 5, the higher grades Lajoies (portrait and throwing), among other cards I was watching with interest. It seems the two cards that did not go cheap that I was watching, were the only two I bid on - the t206 brown Lenox and the t215-1. I think some prices from last night’s auction reflected the fear. Is that short lived? Probably. But I think many cards, especially mid-high grades that I was watching, went a bit cheap

Everything I was watching, either because I'm thinking about buying, selling, or just curious, has been plowing ahead. Jackson, Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig, and Mantle all seem strong. 93 Jeter and Trout rookies seem to have gone up by 3-4x in the last couple of years. 48 Robinsons have also been strong.