What I Don't Understand about Baseball Card Economics

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

It would take a huge sum of money to get me to watch more than 1 minute of that lol.

Peter you might like the comment section. Haha

Not a very well received video that is for sure. 56 up votes and 95 down votes and some blistering opinions expressed.

Either way I think he really feels this way and while I totally understand why many disagree I think much of what he is saying has been happening and will continue to happen.

I have a client that has close to 20 refurbished 50's collector cars. If they can get the cars to look exactly like they did when they were brand new I don't doubt for a minute there are folks out there who can work magic on cards and go undetected.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

Peter you might like the comment section. Haha

Not a very well received video that is for sure. 56 up votes and 95 down votes and some blistering opinions expressed.

Either way I think he really feels this way and while I totally understand why many disagree I think much of what he is saying has been happening and will continue to happen.

I have a client that has close to 20 refurbished 50's collector cars. If they can get the cars to look exactly like they did when they were brand new I don't doubt for a minute there are folks out there who can work magic on cards and go undetected.

I would need a heavy dose of blood pressure meds to watch him for any length of time. Were it someone objective, sure. But not someone who has worked hand in glove with a major card doctor or maybe more than one for over a decade. Pass.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I would need a heavy dose of blood pressure meds to watch him for any length of time. Were it someone objective, sure. But not someone who has worked hand in glove with a major card doctor or maybe more than one for over a decade. Pass.

You might break your computer screen or smartphone. I would pass. LOL

I watched it because I wanted to see what he had to say.

Brent is a disrupter and he clearly has one vision and how that plays out remains to be seen. It is very easy to argue he has taken on too much too soon with card indexes, stickers, the vault, investment advice etc. but it is clear he isn't taking advice from anyone and is going for it.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

You might break your computer screen or smartphone. I would pass. LOL

I watched it because I wanted to see what he had to say.

Brent is a disrupter and he clearly has one vision and how that plays out remains to be seen. It is very easy to argue he has taken on too much too soon with card indexes, stickers, the vault, investment advice etc. but it is clear he isn't taking advice from anyone and is going for it.

We'll see where he ends up in light of all that is hitting the fan about the seemingly countless doctored cards he has sold. Knowingly, I might add. An interesting vision, that.

[maniac_73]

Darren Rovell has started tweeting about it so it will slowly start spreading mainstream

[barrysloate]

Restoration has a different level of acceptance in different hobbies. It is understood that cars will be restored. If you want to drive it and the engine is dead, you replace it. If the chrome is rusted you polish it. Collectors know that.

Coins, stamps, and baseball cards are viewed differently. It is best to leave them in their original condition. You can't compare automobiles and baseball cards with regard to restoration.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Restoration has a different level of acceptance in different hobbies. It is understood that cars will be restored. If you want to drive it and the engine is dead, you replace it. If the chrome is rusted you polish it. Collectors know that.

Coins, stamps, and baseball cards are viewed differently. It is best to leave them in their original condition. You can't compare automobiles and baseball cards with regard to restoration.

Dave wasn't equating them I don't think, just pointing out that it can't be that hard to convincingly alter a card.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Restoration has a different level of acceptance in different hobbies. It is understood that cars will be restored. If you want to drive it and the engine is dead, you replace it. If the chrome is rusted you polish it. Collectors know that.

Coins, stamps, and baseball cards are viewed differently. It is best to leave them in their original condition. You can't compare automobiles and baseball cards with regard to restoration.

Not condoning just stating I think it is unrealistic to think it isn't possible.

A few years back I got some rust stains off my front porch that were on non polished travertine. I tried everything I had at home but it wouldn't work. I went to a stone store and sure enough they had a cleaner that could do it. You would never know the stains were there. I believe a similar solution has probably been created that can remove stains from cards without any after effects. Not saying it is right just saying I believe it is possible.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

Not condoning just stating I think it is unrealistic to think it isn't possible.

A few years back I got some rust stains off my front porch that were on non polished travertine. I tried everything I had at home but it wouldn't work. I went to a stone store and sure enough they had a cleaner that could do it. You would never know the stains were there. I believe a similar solution has probably been created that can remove stains from cards without any after effects. Not saying it is right just saying I believe it is possible.

Not sure. I think it may be extremely difficult to detect with normal methods but last time we had this discussion, knowledgeable people thought with the right equipment it could be detected and does change the card.

[Dpeck100]

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...or-155-million


Steve Wynn Picasso. I am sure many are aware or have read about this.

Quote from the article


"The restoration seems to be factored into the price," Beverly Schreiber Jacoby, valuation specialist and president of New York-based BSJ Fine Art, told Bloomberg. "If you didn't know that it has been damaged, you would not see it. It's superbly restored."


If a painting can be fixed without leaving a trail I believe cards can too.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...or-155-million


Steve Wynn Picasso. I am sure many are aware or have read about this.

Quote from the article


"The restoration seems to be factored into the price," Beverly Schreiber Jacoby, valuation specialist and president of New York-based BSJ Fine Art, told Bloomberg. "If you didn't know that it has been damaged, you would not see it. It's superbly restored."


If a painting can be fixed without leaving a trail I believe cards can too.

I would bet the restoration could be detected with the right equipment there. It may not be visible to the eye.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I would bet the restoration could be detected with the right equipment there. It may not be visible to the eye.

Perhaps.

We then get in to a much larger discussion about whether TPG firms have the wan't or the resources to invest in greater technology. I don't know the answer.

The general point and I believe you will agree is they are pretty good at it and good enough where Brent plans to hire someone to do it for customers.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

Perhaps.

We then get in to a much larger discussion about whether TPG firms have the wan't or the resources to invest in greater technology. I don't know the answer.

The general point and I believe you will agree is they are pretty good at it and good enough where Brent plans to hire someone to do it for customers.

90 percent of Brent's problem is the people he has chosen to take consignments from, IMO.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...or-155-million


Steve Wynn Picasso. I am sure many are aware or have read about this.

Quote from the article


"The restoration seems to be factored into the price," Beverly Schreiber Jacoby, valuation specialist and president of New York-based BSJ Fine Art, told Bloomberg. "If you didn't know that it has been damaged, you would not see it. It's superbly restored."


If a painting can be fixed without leaving a trail I believe cards can too.

If we reach the point that a baseball card can be restored with such skill that an alteration cannot be detected, then we should all agree that third party grading will become obsolete.

We can then accept that any baseball card that looks Mint is Mint. It won't matter if it was restored, because nobody will know the difference. Maybe this will be the future look of the hobby.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

If we reach the point that a baseball card can be restored with such skill that an alteration cannot be detected, then we should all agree that third party grading will become obsolete.

We can then accept that any baseball card that looks Mint is Mint. It won't matter if it was restored, because nobody will know the difference. Maybe this will be the future look of the hobby.

The reason I always point to the ego driven nature of high grade cards is in my view that is what drives the spread. If you can solve for a humans desire to "have the best" or have something someone else can't then it will change. I just think that human behavior is pretty well established and grading differentiates what started out as very similar items.

There is a big difference between a PSA 8 and a PSA 10. There are much smaller differences between a 9 and a 10. Probably the most liquid card that exists is the 86 Fleer Michael Jordan and under no circumstances will you ever see a card that is an 8 that looks as good as a 10. You easily could see one that is a 9 that does and I am sure some of the 10's started out as a 9. That said there are far too many collectors that get a thrill out of saying they have a 10. This isn't going to change.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

The reason I always point to the ego driven nature of high grade cards is in my view that is what drives the spread. If you can solve for a humans desire to "have the best" or have something someone else can't then it will change. I just think that human behavior is pretty well established and grading differentiates what started out as very similar items.

There is a big difference between a PSA 8 and a PSA 10. There are much smaller differences between a 9 and a 10. Probably the most liquid card that exists is the 86 Fleer Michael Jordan and under no circumstances will you ever see a card that is an 8 that looks as good as a 10. You easily could see one that is a 9 that does and I am sure some of the 10's started out as a 9. That said there are far too many collectors that get a thrill out of saying they have a 10. This isn't going to change.

This is pretty much it. And exactly what the registry capitalizes on.

And I must say that I'm not immune. I initially sent cards out for grading so they'd be easier to sell someday. (Maybe a good decision, maybe not... )
Along the way I ended up with a couple that are either the highest graded, or really close. I was a bit surprised that it mattered to me once I was there.

[drcy]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

If we reach the point that a baseball card can be restored with such skill that an alteration cannot be detected, then we should all agree that third party grading will become obsolete.

We can then accept that any baseball card that looks Mint is Mint. It won't matter if it was restored, because nobody will know the difference. Maybe this will be the future look of the hobby.

Maybe but I think there will be a substantial difference in pricing. Unlike natural difference in grade, I don't think in the future someone, even someone with lots of money, will pay an extra $500,000 because one card had a very slightly better alteration than another altered card. It's one thing to pay that difference for what is perceived to be natural if very slight difference, but another to pay that difference knowing that the difference is because someone was just slightly better at using a paper cutter.

[drcy]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...or-155-million


Steve Wynn Picasso. I am sure many are aware or have read about this.

Quote from the article


"The restoration seems to be factored into the price," Beverly Schreiber Jacoby, valuation specialist and president of New York-based BSJ Fine Art, told Bloomberg. "If you didn't know that it has been damaged, you would not see it. It's superbly restored."


If a painting can be fixed without leaving a trail I believe cards can too.

Restoration to paintings can be and is identifyed. The "you would not see it" is really saying "If you just looked at it when it's hanging on my wall, you wouldn't notice it."

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by drcy

Restoration to paintings can be and is identifyed. The "you would not see it" is really saying "If you just looked at it when it's hanging on my wall, you wouldn't notice it."

Gotcha.

Repairing a hole and making it look good sounds impressive to me.

Removing a stain and having the cardboard look the same seems to have happened many times successfully and that is all I am getting at. Perhaps they are not similar enough of examples. Just was trying to convey that significant repair has taken place to items such as this.

[Rich Klein]

Just as an FYI, I ran one of small Plano card shows this weekend. Out of the 125-150 people who were in the room at some point, maybe 3 even mentioned this subject and maybe one really cared. This "IS" an important issue but remember we're a very small percent of the hobby as an whole.

[drcy]

I think investors invest in how they're invested.

If it is known there are irrational variations in grading, but the prices still go along a line, they are investing in that line.

Investors have been keeping their heads in the sand about certain issues, because everyone else has been keeping their heads in the sand. Most everyone, including registry mebers with a brain must have already realized the irrational variations and margins in error in the number grades on labels, and many people have already been of the belief that many high-grade cards in holders are altered-- I've been of that belief for many years.

Also, what facts don't affect prices today, doesn't mean they won't affect prices tomorrow.

I think longterm investment in "high grade" vintage cards is a bad idea. Nice looking cards will still fetch good prices, but I don't believe in the future someone will pay $100,000 for a one grade increment knowing the card is likely altered to get to that grade. I, and of course many others, already thought it looney considering the normal variations (margins of error) in assigning a grade itself. Considerations the margins of error and variations is grading, paying $500,000 more for a 10 over a 9 is, in many people's opinion, silly enough, but paying $500,000 for a trimmed edge in someone's basement is beyond the pale of expectations.

My assumption, my opinion, is that the majority of high-grade vintage cards have been altered, or 'conserved' if you prefer. And, if and when that sets in with the hobby as a whole, I assume it will affect pricing.

Also, it doesn't take the entire hobby or current 'investors' to give up the ghost on high-grade cards to affect the market. It can just take a substantial minority, in particular, if they are big spenders.

[Dpeck100]

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1984-Donrus....c100033.m2042

Is this normal for a 1984 Donruss Don Mattingly? I remember when these were in the $600 to $700 range.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1984-Donrus....c100033.m2042

Is this normal for a 1984 Donruss Don Mattingly? I remember when these were in the $600 to $700 range.

16 retraction bidder running it up.
https://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI....p2471758.m4792

[Peter_Spaeth]

April 4 Probstein sells one for 1025.
April 14 PWCC sells one for 1601.
Ok.

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by drcy

I think investors invest in how they're invested.

If it is known there are irrational variations in grading, but the prices still go along a line, they are investing in that line.

Investors have been keeping their heads in the sand about certain issues, because everyone else has been keeping their heads in the sand. Most everyone, including registry mebers with a brain must have already realized the irrational variations and margins in error in the number grades on labels, and many people have already been of the belief that many high-grade cards in holders are altered-- I've been of that belief for many years.

Also, what facts don't affect prices today, doesn't mean they won't affect prices tomorrow.

I think longterm investment in "high grade" vintage cards is a bad idea. Nice looking cards will still fetch good prices, but I don't believe in the future someone will pay $100,000 for a one grade increment knowing the card is likely altered to get to that grade. I, and of course many others, already thought it looney considering the normal variations (margins of error) in assigning a grade itself. Considerations the margins of error and variations is grading, paying $500,000 more for a 10 over a 9 is, in many people's opinion, silly enough, but paying $500,000 for a trimmed edge in someone's basement is beyond the pale of expectations.

My assumption, my opinion, is that the majority of high-grade vintage cards have been altered, or 'conserved' if you prefer. And, if and when that sets in with the hobby as a whole, I assume it will affect pricing.

I think two things are going on with some of the high roller investors:

1. When PSA assigns a card a high grade, that then is what the card "becomes." If you're holding a PSA 9 Mantle, forget what the card looks like; what it is, to the investor, is a PSA 9 Mantle, period. How it got there (overly generous grading, unnoticeable alteration) is basically irrelevant.

2. The PSA population report creates artificial rarity. A seasoned collector will understand why a T206 Doyle in fair condition is quite highly desirable because of its (legitimate) rarity, while an investor will look at a 1967 Card #1 The Champs in PSA 10 and see that only one exists. So, to the investor, that card is unique. If he wants the BEST 1967 set, he must have that specific instance of that card (so his thinking goes.)

I have often thought that PSA, and other TPG, basically have a business model that allows them to create wealth out of thin air. I think collectors who buy cards that are legitimately scarce will, in the long run, have a "portfolio" of "assets" that will grow in value, while those who are paying huge multiples for those 9s and 10s are just inflating a false bubble.

[RollieFingers]

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

Just as an FYI, I ran one of small Plano card shows this weekend. Out of the 125-150 people who were in the room at some point, maybe 3 even mentioned this subject and maybe one really cared. This "IS" an important issue but remember we're a very small percent of the hobby as an whole.

interesting

[RollieFingers]

how many people even work at these places? 2 months wait sounds like bad business anyway

[mark evans]

Due to the inherent subjectivity in grading, I've believed for some time that the hobby is due for a 'correction' to redress the tremendous disparity in values at the high end of the grading scale. Of course, to date, this correction has existed only in my imagination.

But, I now wonder whether the current scandal, assuming well publicized, will trigger or help facilitate such a correction.