What I Don't Understand about Baseball Card Economics

[barrysloate]

Not completely Peter. I do understand that the collector who pieces together a VG T205 set one card at a time is passionate about what he is doing, and doesn't care about all this background noise about card doctors.

But we know that recently a whole wave of investors has entered the hobby and is putting big money in high grade cards. Those people are looking for one thing only: making a profit. And given the rickety state of the high end hobby, why aren't they fleeing it? If you bought 100 shares of Apple and then discovered that instead of using computer chips in their smartphones they were filling it with jello, you would bail out in a heartbeat. You would have no emotional attachment with the stock. But these high end players seem to sense that nothing is wrong. No, I don't entirely understand it.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Not completely Peter. I do understand that the collector who pieces together a VG T205 set one card at a time is passionate about what he is doing, and doesn't care about all this background noise about card doctors.

But we know that recently a whole wave of investors has entered the hobby and is putting big money in high grade cards. Those people are looking for one thing only: making a profit. And given the rickety state of the high end hobby, why aren't they fleeing it? If you bought 100 shares of Apple and then discovered that instead of using computer chips in their smartphones they were filling it with jello, you would bail out in a heartbeat. You would have no emotional attachment with the stock. But these high end players seem to sense that nothing is wrong. No, I don't entirely understand it.

Who says it's rickety? Who says the vast majority of these guys even know about the stuff on message boards yet? BTW I disagree with your premise, lots of high rollers also love the cards and being high on the Registry is also an ego thing for them. It's about much more than just money.

[Republicaninmass]

I'd bet there are a whole lot less "investors" that previously thought or shown through auctions, Ebay and the like. Most likely people who jumped on the bandwagon due to fear of missing out, are now holding the bag of high graded cards. Albeit not necessarily altered, but comp sales were skewed. I'd assume collectors wont mind, and it would be silly to sell now.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

I'd bet there are a whole lot less "investors" that previously thought or shown through auctions, Ebay and the like. Most likely people who jumped on the bandwagon due to fear of missing out, are now holding the bag of high graded cards. Albeit not necessarily altered, but comp sales were skewed. I'd assume collectors wont mind, and it would be silly to sell now.

Also agree when blood is in the waters it’s the time to buy not sell

[barrysloate]

So if these high rollers who don't know about this message board found out about it, would they bail out? And I think this issue will spread much further than just Net54. I think this is pretty big news for the hobby.

and to Peter- sure some of these people love what they buy. But they don't want to feel that they are being ripped off. You can be passionate about far less expensive cards too.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

So if these high rollers who don't know about this message board found out about it, would they bail out? And I think this issue will spread much further than just Net54. I think this is pretty big news for the hobby.

and to Peter- sure some of these people love what they buy. But they don't want to feel that they are being ripped off. You can be passionate about far less expensive cards too.

I expect more significant press coverage soon. A couple of days maybe. We'll see.

[barrysloate]

David- I think PSA will deem most of these cards good after review for a very obvious reason.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

David- I think PSA will deem most of these cards good after review for a very obvious reason.

I understand what you are getting at.

That said I don't think it will change going forward because they are grading the card in front of them. I do know they are scanning all images of cards sent at the quicker turn around times so perhaps this deters folks but I am not so sure if now this will be an option that Brent offers to clients.

I am more inclined to think the market "matures" and just has to deal with the facts.

I am not really a cynic by nature but does anyone really think that a card that sat inside with cracker jacks or tobacco was ever 100% clean? I don't. I assume they all have had some stain removal of some kind. I might be wrong but this has always been my belief.

[70ToppsFanatic]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

David- I think PSA will deem most of these cards good after review for a very obvious reason.

This will not happen. Any TPG that did something like that would then become complicit in perpetuating a fraud and put their officers at risk of criminal charges assuming that they detect alteration doing the review but say otherwise.

More likely is a strategy to minimize the number of reviews done by tactics such as:

1) directing people with items that are potentially tainted to 3rd parties that they have some leverage over such that the 3rd party provides refunds, the suspected/tainted itema are returned to the TPG for review and any item found to be tainted is destroyed. The benefit to the 3rd party is that they don’t find themselves the subjects of wire fraud and mail fraud investigations based on complaints and evidence coming from the TPG.

2) not providing an itemized “recall” list

3) giving reviews the lowest priority for service due to the high demand of backlogged orders

[leaflover]

In light of all the recent happenings in the hobby I still want to further my collection. Maybe at the National this year I will be able to find something.

The large AH's with their BPs, taxes and high shipping costs are drawn out affairs. Too slow for me. Some times 2 to 3 weeks before shipping. I don't understand. Why so long?
The straight Ebay auctions are usually shilled. Why don't sellers start the listings with the minimum they are willing to take? I don't understand. Why shill?
The Ebay BINS are usually 50 to 300 percent overpriced. I rarely find a card I can use at a reasonable price. I don't understand. Why the "Museum" concept?

So Chicago here I come.

[conor912]

Originally Posted by leaflover

The Ebay BINS are usually 50 to 300 percent overpriced. I rarely find a card I can use at a reasonable price. I don't understand. Why the "Museum" concept?

So Chicago here I come.

You've clearly never been to a National.

[jhs5120]

Why aren’t pricing tanking? Some possible reasons:

1. I doubt most “high-end” collectors are aware of this issue.
2. If tainted cards are being removed from the hobby, PSA populations will theoretically drop. Prices might increase because of this fiasco.
3. It’s too soon. PWCC hasn’t had an auction since this issue hit.

[Fballguy]

The saying isn't..."There's a genius born every minute".

[Dpeck100]

PWCC has 8,282 listings running right now.

From what I can tell it appears it is 100% business as usual.

There is no doubt there is something to this recent scandal and even those wearing the most rose collared glasses will see that but it is going to take much more I believe to derail the hobby.

I read someone say that many collectors live by the ignorance is bliss moto and that may very well be true.

There are quite a few people out there that have dealt with infidelity in a relationship. Probably said to their friends if that bit++ ever cheats on me she is gone. It happens and just a few months later they are explaining to their friends she made a mistake and we all make mistakes and she is sorry. Humans are very complex that is for sure.

I watched the entire Brent interview. He made it out to be like conservation was common knowledge and everyone knows it. Many of the examples we see popping up fit his description and have simply been improved. I think there is a very real chance that many of these cards will be reviewed by PSA and they will deem them to be good because they are grading the card in front of them not the card that used to exist. Brent also indicated he was going to bring in an expert and offer this as a service and if they alter cards where there is no discernible evidence upon inspection this crisis of confidence could easily subside. I don't think all parties will be happy but the market will move forward.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

The market is so easily manipulated that there's very little disincentive to a deep pocket investor with, shall we say, moral flexibility.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by steve B

That the vast majority of people - even the "smart" ones with degrees etc. are quite often stupid.

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

The market is so easily manipulated that there's very little disincentive to a deep pocket investor with, shall we say, moral flexibility.

These 2 posts describe baseball card economics perfectly. It is fun to watch the pump and dump manipulation that goes on in the forums.

[RollieFingers]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

PWCC has 8,282 listings running right now.

From what I can tell it appears it is 100% business as usual.

There is no doubt there is something to this recent scandal and even those wearing the most rose collared glasses will see that but it is going to take much more I believe to derail the hobby.

I read someone say that many collectors live by the ignorance is bliss moto and that may very well be true.

There are quite a few people out there that have dealt with infidelity in a relationship. Probably said to their friends if that bit++ ever cheats on me she is gone. It happens and just a few months later they are explaining to their friends she made a mistake and we all make mistakes and she is sorry. Humans are very complex that is for sure.

I watched the entire Brent interview. He made it out to be like conservation was common knowledge and everyone knows it. Many of the examples we see popping up fit his description and have simply been improved. I think there is a very real chance that many of these cards will be reviewed by PSA and they will deem them to be good because they are grading the card in front of them not the card that used to exist. Brent also indicated he was going to bring in an expert and offer this as a service and if they alter cards where there is no discernible evidence upon inspection this crisis of confidence could easily subside. I don't think all parties will be happy but the market will move forward.

Where's this interview, please.

[Dpeck100]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_f3k5VSqVt4

[RollieFingers]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_f3k5VSqVt4

Woohoo!! Thanks!

[Peter_Spaeth]

It would take a huge sum of money to get me to watch more than 1 minute of that lol.

[RollieFingers]

Not everyone pays attention to facebook or even card forums. I didn't think much of this till someone said there was an article in wall street journal.
Unless it shows up on national news tv.. I don't know if it causes grading to plummet or not. I've never graded. I'm a junk wax dealer.

[Goudey77]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

PWCC has 8,282 listings running right now.

From what I can tell it appears it is 100% business as usual.

There is no doubt there is something to this recent scandal and even those wearing the most rose collared glasses will see that but it is going to take much more I believe to derail the hobby.

I read someone say that many collectors live by the ignorance is bliss moto and that may very well be true.

There are quite a few people out there that have dealt with infidelity in a relationship. Probably said to their friends if that bit++ ever cheats on me she is gone. It happens and just a few months later they are explaining to their friends she made a mistake and we all make mistakes and she is sorry. Humans are very complex that is for sure.

I watched the entire Brent interview. He made it out to be like conservation was common knowledge and everyone knows it. Many of the examples we see popping up fit his description and have simply been improved. I think there is a very real chance that many of these cards will be reviewed by PSA and they will deem them to be good because they are grading the card in front of them not the card that used to exist. Brent also indicated he was going to bring in an expert and offer this as a service and if they alter cards where there is no discernible evidence upon inspection this crisis of confidence could easily subside. I don't think all parties will be happy but the market will move forward.

Good write up David. 100% business as usual is right. I'll add that I believe the market gets stronger from this point. Investors with their assets are expecting profits on the flip. They won't have fire sales at a loss because they got scared. Cards are relatively cheap compared to most investments.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Goudey77

Good write up David. 100% business as usual is right. I'll add that I believe the market gets stronger from this point. Investors with their assets are expecting profits on the flip. They won't have fire sales at a loss because they got scared. Cards are relatively cheap compared to most investments.

While I've heard a divergence of opinions, many people agree with this, Martin. I think it will be a little while before we know because I doubt the word has spread very far. But it may not change much if and when it does. I'm not panic selling certainly.

[brianp-beme]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

PWCC has 8,282 listings running right now.

From what I can tell it appears it is 100% business as usual.

Legendary continued on the elevated Mastro path for awhile, but as time went on their auctions became less impressive and seemed to have weaker results as a result of the cloud of suspicion of wrongdoing that surrounded the operation.

I figure the same will happen to PWCC...more and more collectors will lose confidence in their business, and their business will suffer, even if no criminal charges are levied upon them.

BrianP(arker)-beme