How do you think it all shakes out

[barrysloate]

The theme so far is that none of us expect too much to change. Hopefully we will at least see something. Better quality grading and authenticating would be a terrific place to start.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

The theme so far is that none of us expect too much to change. Hopefully we will at least see something. Better quality grading and authenticating would be a terrific place to start.

Surely you jest. Where has that been for 28 years?

[oldjudge]

At Long Beach Show. This has really affected PSA's business--not. Mile long line.

[bounce]

You forgot to include Beckett in your list...

TPGs - Not entirely sure on this one, as we definitely don't have all the facts and it may take law enforcement to get to a lot of it. I do think PSA ends up buying some cards, most likely the trimmed stuff assuming people can find the pictures. The cleaning and stain removing I think probably slides by, and/or they just fight it the whole way. I don't imagine they just offer it up, but quite honestly that would be the best way to get it over with. Beckett appears to have a different set of issues, and that all still feels like early days to me. Since they don't have the guarantee, I have no idea what happens there. Regardless, I think all TPGs get much stricter in the short run unless it's clear there is no downside, in which case any guarantees will be done and graded cards will just become what autographs already are - just an opinion (and yes, I know some people already view that as what cards are now).

PWCC - I doubt they survive this, unless law enforcement really doesn't get involved. They've had so many missteps to this point. I really think if they want to maintain any relationship with the TPGs, they're going to have to eat most of the refunds, including the cleaning/stain removal that might not actually be altering. I just don't know how long they can weather that financially. And unless they're going to come out publicly and try to do that, there is no way it's just business as usual for them in Chicago. That will become a multi-time daily show, there's no way they'll be able to do business. Add to this the press on this is just starting, so if it's not somewhat resolved by the time we hit Chicago, you just KNOW there are going to be reporters from anywhere close coming through and trying to get their "scoop" on it - what a mess?!?! Unless it's true that "all press is good press".

Moser - Seems to me unless PWCC/PSA is going to insist on charging him with fraud, I'm not sure anything happens to him. If they were going to do that, wouldn't it have already happened? His reputation seems pretty well known already, but that's kinda the beauty of the internet from a privacy standpoint. I think if PWCC figures out they aren't going to be able to survive, then they will try to go after him and take their chances. Without that, I just don't know what would otherwise happen to him.

VCP/Net54 and other advertisers - I think it's a small blip for them, someone else will look to step in any space created and they'll get the advertising dollars back from someone else, or just carry on without it.

The rest - I think there are a lot of people nervous and undecided on what's next. I definitely believe that some people at the margins may just cease collecting and get out. I know for myself, I collect tons of stuff and had stopped collecting cards for more than 15 years before I started up again. I could always just go to something else.

Unless there is a pretty clear response before Chicago, I think the National probably does not go well. Without some substantive resolution of some sort, all the non-message board people are going to get their first taste of this at the show. How do you think they react? For people who do already know, anything more than a couple hundred bucks gets extra scrutiny and if prices aren't lower to reflect the perception of added risk with graded cards, I just don't think they sell as well.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

At Long Beach Show. This has really affected PSA's business--not. Mile long line.

Are they serving kool aid Jay?

I hear PWCC skipped the show.

[ALBB]

nothing will change..as time goes on..collectors will keep doing what they do, buy cards..look for deals, look for steals, look for angles...

[taul166]

Maybe I missed it, but has Joe Orlando been totally silent lately. I have nothing against Joe, who I have never met in person. But, he strikes me as someone who likes to stay on the stage. I realize he is a collector himself and has a lot of enthusiasm for the hobby, but even after Steve Sloan took his position after Joe was promoted, Joe struck me as someone who stayed on the PSA stage too long and overshadowed Steve as his replacement at PSA.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Hard to read much into one day of trading, especially with a thinly traded stock, but CLCT did drop 7 percent or so following the Seeking Alpha article. I wonder how that is playing.

[taul166]

Should be a very interesting National show in Chicago....which is not far away....the body language of some, who shows and doesn't show up at the National, how they interact with attendees and dealers, etc., etc. could be priceless.

[bounce]

Originally Posted by ALBB

nothing will change..as time goes on..collectors will keep doing what they do, buy cards..look for deals, look for steals, look for angles...

Steal, create some angles

[JollyElm]

In virtually all of my ebay searches, I always add (-pwcc, dean) to omit the listings of those two scourges, but when I allow PWCC to show?? A thousand different auctions appear (no matter what I search for) and they all have many bids already logged in. Doesn't seem like the majority of collectors give a crap (yet?) about what's going on.

[oldjudge]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Are they serving kool aid Jay?

I hear PWCC skipped the show.

I waited in line 2 hours and 15 minutes to drop off some WNBA cards. I have always come at the same time on the same day in the past and I never waited more than 15 minutes. They don’t serve kool aid, but they do have a bowl of chocolates.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

I waited in line 2 hours and 15 minutes to drop off some WNBA cards. I have always come at the same time on the same day in the past and I never waited more than 15 minutes. They don’t serve kool aid, but they do have a bowl of chocolates.

What’s an Alana Beard rookie worth?

[oldjudge]

Originally Posted by calvindog

What’s an Alana Beard rookie worth?

$75 for a PSA10. Did you know her at Duke?

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

I waited in line 2 hours and 15 minutes to drop off some WNBA cards.

"WNBA"? What is "WNBA"?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

"WNBA"? What is "WNBA"?

I know you're goofing on Jay but if you watch some games some of these women are fantastic basketball players and because they mostly don't dunk it's more basic, fundamental basketball which purists will appreciate.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Surely you jest. Where has that been for 28 years?

Well hopefully this is a wake up call that they have to do better. Am I confident we will see a change? No, not really. And don't call me Shirley.

[mq711]

SGC will get a bigger share of the market, but since a lot of investors buy the holder and not the card then PSA will continue to prosper. Might be an opening for a new TPG with AI technology to start up.

PWCC will take a hit and a lot of collectors will stay away so their eBay dominance will suffer; making the market "fairer."

Card doctors will continue to fool the novice and TPG until AI takes over the process.

60s and early 70s set collectors and mid range Mays collectors like me might start getting better deals.

[CuriousGeorge]

I think you people are going to be very surprised.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by CuriousGeorge

I think you people are going to be very surprised.

I agree.

[hcv123]

Originally Posted by calvindog

I agree.

I'll simply ask pleasantly or unpleasantly as I presume your original post to be purposely brief?



That asked, I think the biggest consequence of this will be necessarily beefed up security at the PWCC booth at the national.

Has anyone thought of printing up a 1 page intro to run off copies and hand out at the national? Perhaps any dealers who are set up and choose could have them at their tables to hand out?

I think the greatest opportunity for change out of this is through public relations - the more people that know - the greater "buying power" is at risk for the guilty players.

For those curious (I know I was) - I have attached a picture of Gary Moser - apparently from the NY area.

[swarmee]

I'll guess the opposite end.

Law enforcement gets really involved. There are ALREADY MILLIONS OF DOLLARS of exposed cards by OVER 10 ALTERERS all using PWCC to launder their goods, plus the SSI company in Dallas.

PSA gets spun off from CLCT and is purchased. They take the SGC route and remove the guarantee for any cards prior to the buyout. Any claims under the current grade guarantee not covered will be subject to a class-action lawsuit, leading to a bankruptcy restructuring. All previously graded cards in the registry need to be reholdered/re-evaluated by new ownership to go back in the registry. PSA can survive, IMO, but if it does, it has to play this by the book and report to the public all known scammers, the cert numbers of questionable cards, and decertify them from the pop report/registry. If they don't, they lose the customer's confidence. Take the 1952 Topps Look-N-See. How can anyone trust that set registry anymore? 1953 Parkhurst? How many T206s has Gary worked/submitted? Without transparency in their process (opposite of the promised "internal investigation"), their big spenders SHOULD LOSE FAITH and should know that their registry competitors are gaining on them by fraud.

How does PSA continue to charge per card value, if their Grade Guarantee has no teeth? Beckett doesn't come with a promise, only expectation, but charges way less for hundred thousand dollar cards than PSA does. Is the Set Registry really still worth all the grading fees? Is public trust shattered?

Beckett customers, mostly younger and more in tune with the internet, realize there's no grade guarantee with their cards. They get together and file a class-action lawsuit, citing gross negligence. (Or is that a criminal crime? I'm not a lawyer) Beckett's already got major issues with their ownership group and leadership, and should lose the trust of the marketplace. Once the top cards stop dropping in price, it may be rapid. BGS Black Labels and Pristines will no longer be the crown jewels they used to be. Since they seem to have unfair grading practices (see the 100+ page thread at blowout), they could be criminally liable for fraud.

PWCC goes out of business. It just has to. Jail time for Brent is the only thing that makes sense. Surely there will be someone to fill the void. But PWCC is the enabler of all these "isolated bad actors."

The market corrects just like we were in a recession; I envision a 40% chop at the top. I think the low-mid end stays fairly constant, but the exponential growth curve for PSA 8/9/10 in vintage cards takes a beating. If it doesn't, PSA just goes about its business and Moser keeps destroying cardboard pictures with base ball men on them.

The watchdogs are no longer lazy, no longer have a defeatist attitude, no longer willing to sit on the sidelines and not rock the boat. And we're willing to push this as long as it takes to right the hobby. Like I said, I've already called in the FDLE to investigate the entire situation. I know others have contact their states. This will not be confined to the few, the proud, the too invested to speak up and do the right thing.

[T_Hamilton]

has anyone reached out to any of the reporters who cover the hobby?

David Seideman from Forbes is always talking to PWCC and writing articles on the hobby.

One just needs to go through PWCC's "In the news" section to see who the interested journalists are...

[swarmee]

Darren Rovell and Keith Olberman have tweeted about it. Because that's a thing.

The Oregonian wrote a pretty good story on it that was getting shared a bit. Beckett will not write an article on it, because it would be hypocritical.

PSA's SMR deserves to. I'll keep suggesting it to Mr. Sloan.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by T_Hamilton

has anyone reached out to any of the reporters who cover the hobby?

David Seideman from Forbes is always talking to PWCC and writing articles on the hobby.

One just needs to go through PWCC's "In the news" section to see who the interested journalists are...

David is a member. He has been a staunch fan of Brent even as all this started to unfold, but it's always possible he changed his mind.

[topcat61]

Originally Posted by swarmee

I'll guess the opposite end.

Law enforcement gets really involved. There are ALREADY MILLIONS OF DOLLARS of exposed cards by OVER 10 ALTERERS all using PWCC to launder their goods, plus the SSI company in Dallas.

PSA gets spun off from CLCT and is purchased. They take the SGC route and remove the guarantee for any cards prior to the buyout. Any claims under the current grade guarantee not covered will be subject to a class-action lawsuit, leading to a bankruptcy restructuring. All previously graded cards in the registry need to be reholdered/re-evaluated by new ownership to go back in the registry. PSA can survive, IMO, but if it does, it has to play this by the book and report to the public all known scammers, the cert numbers of questionable cards, and decertify them from the pop report/registry. If they don't, they lose the customer's confidence. Take the 1952 Topps Look-N-See. How can anyone trust that set registry anymore? 1953 Parkhurst? How many T206s has Gary worked/submitted? Without transparency in their process (opposite of the promised "internal investigation"), their big spenders SHOULD LOSE FAITH and should know that their registry competitors are gaining on them by fraud.

How does PSA continue to charge per card value, if their Grade Guarantee has no teeth? Beckett doesn't come with a promise, only expectation, but charges way less for hundred thousand dollar cards than PSA does. Is the Set Registry really still worth all the grading fees? Is public trust shattered?

Beckett customers, mostly younger and more in tune with the internet, realize there's no grade guarantee with their cards. They get together and file a class-action lawsuit, citing gross negligence. (Or is that a criminal crime? I'm not a lawyer) Beckett's already got major issues with their ownership group and leadership, and should lose the trust of the marketplace. Once the top cards stop dropping in price, it may be rapid. BGS Black Labels and Pristines will no longer be the crown jewels they used to be. Since they seem to have unfair grading practices (see the 100+ page thread at blowout), they could be criminally liable for fraud.

PWCC goes out of business. It just has to. Jail time for Brent is the only thing that makes sense. Surely there will be someone to fill the void. But PWCC is the enabler of all these "isolated bad actors."

The market corrects just like we were in a recession; I envision a 40% chop at the top. I think the low-mid end stays fairly constant, but the exponential growth curve for PSA 8/9/10 in vintage cards takes a beating. If it doesn't, PSA just goes about its business and Moser keeps destroying cardboard pictures with base ball men on them.

The watchdogs are no longer lazy, no longer have a defeatist attitude, no longer willing to sit on the sidelines and not rock the boat. And we're willing to push this as long as it takes to right the hobby. Like I said, I've already called in the FDLE to investigate the entire situation. I know others have contact their states. This will not be confined to the few, the proud, the too invested to speak up and do the right thing.

I completely agree with these statements. The Hobby probably should made a financial couse correction and this may aid in that for the good of the Hobby. It's the defeatist attitudes that believe nothing will happen. There's way too much money involved here. You're looking at 50 million just from pwcc in annual sales alone from 2010 to 2018. Possibly more from PSA and dont forget the forgery scandal -so yes, The FBI and SEC are looking into this. Why would anyone think that the government would let this ride? Because it's only Baseball cards? Hell no! It's a 5 billion dollar a year industry and a huge chunk of this falls under a publicly traded company regulated under the SEC.

Change has to happen. This Hobby has changed considerably since the days of Jefferson Burdick, Lionel Carter and Buck Barker, but it will continue to change weather or not PSA or PWCC are in it or not.

There are no garantees that this hobby is around in a generation or two, but the one of the ways it changes for the good is by being vigilant to fraud and by better education. Hobbyists and the Hobby may need to change their way of thinking and to alter their perceptions. Net 54 is a great site, and the collectors and dealers here have done some outstanding work on both educating and tipping off fraud, however it needs to be better advertisers.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I am impressed you know what the FBI and SEC are doing. I wish I did.