PSA needs to introduce a non-guaranteed review...asap

[swarmee]

Again, it's a Catch-22. If they try to get rid of the grade guarantee, they still have to uphold it for all cards currently graded. With the skip-numbering of cert numbers, sometimes it's not possible to tell when a card was graded. They are currently grading with cert numbers around 43,000,000 . But they've previously graded cards with cert number 50,000,000. If those old cards have been reholdered into the newest lighthouse flips, you'd have to look up every single card on their Cert verification before you made purchases.

So if you buy a card, how will you know immediately whether it is guaranteed or not? SGC already has this issue with their slabs because their current ownership does not guarantee cards from their previous owners; how do you know which cards are which?

And suffice to say, if they did this, they'd be admitting that they can't detect alterations. What would that do to their infallible image in the market? Why would someone pay them $5,000 to grade expensive cards anymore if they admit they can't detect alterations anyway?

[swarmee]

More questions:
1) If they did this, would those cards get a different flip color?

2) If they did this, would those cards be eligible to go into a registry or not?

Again, splitting up the grade guarantee would be a PR nightmare for the company. They'd have to actively inform the market that they're incompetent.

[benjulmag]

I think both the comments in the first post introducing this thread and the two responses are well thought out and raise interesting issues.

I agree that as a practical matter it could be dicey for a TPG to tell the market its service is not of the quality that it can in a cost-effective way offer a guaranty, as a submitter would reasonably wonder then exactly what he/she is getting for his/her money to have a card graded. On top of this is the issue of what market value a card graded without a guaranty will have, especially if it should become the next "hot card". Any prospective purchaser would demand the card be regraded with a guaranty, and if it should be found to be altered, the person who graded it under the non-guaranty system will be very unhappy, especially now that the card is a "hot card". Finally, how does one even distinguish guaranteed from non-guaranteed cards? I would think for it to work in a commercial setting it would have to be by some conspicuous marking on the flip. Otherwise, one would need to look up a certification number out of a list of millions, and who would want to do that? And if there was such a designation, the card would stand out in a negative way in a showcase amongst cards that do have the guaranty.

This issue, in the context of the voluminous threads/posts and about the current alteration scandal, highlights to me another potentially more serious issue -- the profitability of altering lesser-grade cards. Up to now, my focus had been on the high grade cards that sell for the highest prices. But it would seem to me that altering lesser grade cards is also very profitable, as the percentage increase in price from going up a grade or two are very high, and also the success rate might be higher because a grader might give less scrutiny to a lower grade card.

So if we have something where a two-tiered grading system is not practical, and the current system which seems to miss a lot of altered cards also has problems, where does third party grading go? I think it is only a matter a time before a new system involving new technology supplants the current system. Cards simply sell for too much and card doctors are simply too sophisticated for a system that is based on looking at a card for a very short period of time with equipment not designed to detect 21st century alterations.

[Peter_Spaeth]

In my opinion, many of the people paying huge money for cards for the past 10-15-20 years have known full well they could be altered, but don't care as long as they get their flip and registry points. Not all. But many.

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

In my opinion, many of the people paying huge money for cards for the past 10-15-20 years have known full well they could be altered, but don't care as long as they get their flip and registry points. Not all. But many.

Perhaps true. But if the valuation of those cards take a (big) hit, do you think they will still not care? And what about low to mid grade cards, whose owners as a group likely are less concerned about their registry points? They likely will care a lot if the market values their cards less because of the uncertainty of alteration.

If a new grading system comes into being using the most current technology, and exposes a significant number of graded cards to be altered, I think cards graded under the old method will loose a lot of value until regraded.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

Perhaps true. But if the valuation of those cards take a (big) hit, do you think they will still not care? And what about low to mid grade cards, whose owners as a group likely are less concerned about their registry points? They likely will care a lot if the market values their cards less because of the uncertainty of alteration.

If a new grading system comes into being using the most current technology, and exposes a significant number of graded cards to be altered, I think cards graded under the old method will loose a lot of value until regraded.

There's a bit of circularity though. If I am right that much of the big money doesn't care about alteration, why would values take a big hit?

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

There's a bit of circularity though. If I am right that much of the big money doesn't care about alteration, why would values take a big hit?

Because (i) I don't believe such people really comprehend how prolific alterations are, and (ii) once/if the market offers another TPG alternative that employs the newest technology that exposes the unreliability of current flips, logically cards with old flips will sell for less than cards with new flips. And that market differential will force such people to care. As much as they might relish the competition of the registry, I think they also relish believing their cards hold value.