How strong do you think our hobby will stay?

[seanofjapan]

I think the values of autographs will collapse except for stuff with rock solid provenances in the near future. The forgery problem is going to be harder to get around once AI machines that can duplicate handwriting like this one become cheap enough for everyone to own:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsZH7SS_lfQ

[Mr. Zipper]

Originally Posted by seanofjapan

I think the values of autographs will collapse except for stuff with rock solid provenances in the near future. The forgery problem is going to be harder to get around once AI machines that can duplicate handwriting like this one become cheap enough for everyone to own:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsZH7SS_lfQ

Similar machine signed fakes are already in play. It's really just a computer driven version of an Autopen. They are detectable if you know what to look for.

[cfhofer]

I'm not too concerned about future demand for early vintage autographs. Those signatures are works of art. Any sports fan can easily recognize the signature and appreciate the history behind it.

Autographs of current day athletes are another story. These signatures are rarely more than a quick scribble. I don't see the same mass appeal for these.

[Topnotchsy]

Originally Posted by cfhofer

I'm not too concerned about future demand for early vintage autographs. Those signatures are works of art. Any sports fan can easily recognize the signature and appreciate the history behind it.

Autographs of current day athletes are another story. These signatures are rarely more than a quick scribble. I don't see the same mass appeal for these.

I'm not sure that the reason people buy autographs is for the aesthetics of the signature (though I am sure some do). I think the bigger issue with modern items is that the players sign insane amounts of items, and everything remotely connected to each player or game is saved, so finding things that are legitimately rare will be tough in my opinion.

[Republicaninmass]

I think signed cards will appreciate more. As it is now simple to find any card on Ebay, the hunt for a tougher challenge presents itself.


Also, errors and variation, much like the coin market, will appreciate more.


My modest opinion

[seanofjapan]

Originally Posted by Mr. Zipper

Similar machine signed fakes are already in play. It's really just a computer driven version of an Autopen. They are detectable if you know what to look for.

Yes, but it won't be long before developers figure out what autograph experts look for and figure out a way of spoofing that too.

I mean, if its a vintage Ty Cobb signed in ink 100 years ago that would be an obvious difficulty. But for contemporary players using contemporary ink on contemporary material? That is going to be easy.

[homerunhitter]

Thank you all for your responses, I appreciate them as as you bring up some very good points. Before reading these this thread, I was leaning toward collecting HOF factory certified autographs because companies like PSA are just one big scandal away from making all those slabbed autographs worthless! and i thought i would be safe with lets say topps certified autographs because after all Topps is Topps! if you cant trust Topps who can you trust in our hobby, was my thinking and logic. my thought is the day that the hobby cant trust a company like Topps is the day that i feel the hobby will no longer be.(who in their right mind would want to collect then) PSA is just an "opinion" service and if Topps cant be trusted, why collect autographs?

[Scott Garner]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

Thank you all for your responses, I appreciate them as as you bring up some very good points. Before reading these this thread, I was leaning toward collecting HOF factory certified autographs because companies like PSA are just one big scandal away from making all those slabbed autographs worthless! and i thought i would be safe with lets say topps certified autographs because after all Topps is Topps! if you cant trust Topps who can you trust in our hobby, was my thinking and logic. my thought is the day that the hobby cant trust a company like Topps is the day that i feel the hobby will no longer be.(who in their right mind would want to collect then) PSA is just an "opinion" service and if Topps cant be trusted, why collect autographs?

Wow, very sad! Sorry you feel that way
Collect what you enjoy

[homerunhitter]

It is sad that the autograph hobby if filled with so many fakes (I read online that an estimated 75% of all autographs in our hobby are fake) how can I enjoy what I collect when all it takes is one bad scandal and everything touched by PSA or Beckett would be worthless? And now from what I’m reading we can’t even trust companies like Topps or Upper Deck in regards to autographs being real. Either players having their friends and girlfriends signing their autographs, to companies not actually witnessing players signing (sending players stacks of cards or sticker sheets to sign) to now crooks using high speed printers to print out autographed cards with factory authentication stamps on them. Is anyone else worried about the direction autograph authentication is going in our hobby?

[thenavarro]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

It is sad that the autograph hobby if filled with so many fakes (I read online that an estimated 75% of all autographs in our hobby are fake) how can I enjoy what I collect when all it takes is one bad scandal and everything touched by PSA or Beckett would be worthless? And now from what I’m reading we can’t even trust companies like Topps or Upper Deck in regards to autographs being real. Either players having their friends and girlfriends signing their autographs, to companies not actually witnessing players signing (sending players stacks of cards or sticker sheets to sign) to now crooks using high speed printers to print out autographed cards with factory authentication stamps on them. Is anyone else worried about the direction autograph authentication is going in our hobby?

If PSA or JSA or Beckett or ABC or whomever get rocked by scandal all you have to do to stuff they've "touched" is crack the slabs. It's not hard and takes less than a minute generally. If it's stickered just remove that if you choose, some are harder than others but they all come off.

You don't really seem like you are gung ho on collecting autographs, so don't. It's not everyone's cup of tea and that's perfectly fine.

Find something you enjoy and that doesn't worry you. Collecting is much more fun that way.

Good luck,

Mike

[Fuddjcal]

As it is, PSA encases trimmed cards and give their top submitter's preferential treatment for grades and letting them flip cases like they flip hamburgers at Tommies.

E bay sells & PROMOTES fake autographs. Their call center is in the Philippines. What do you think the future is?

I think a nice little recession and PSA turning into GAI will take care of everything.