Are We Slaves To The Registry?

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by doug.goodman

And YOU obviously drank the kool-aid from the people who get paid for their opinions.

Which is another way for me to say that it is YOU who have no clue what you are talking about.

There is NO WAY for you draw a correlation between the number of cards in the pop report and the number of cards that exist in total.

I happen to have four of these cards in my safe deposit box, and trust me when I tell you they will never be listed on the pop report during my lifetime.

During my last 40 years of driving around the country scouring baseball card and collector stores I have accumulated many other incredibly scarce cards the existence of which would collapse their markets if I released them all at the same time.

When my kids start the sales, you might be among those who run screaming from the collapse. Apologies in advance.

Doug "there's a big grin on my face right now" Goodman

To suggest you can't draw conclusions from a pop report is ludicrous.

A pop report doesn't tell you how many exist but if a third party grader has only reviewed a few after 28 years and has graded nearly 33 million collectibles it is extremely rare.

Using this logic I am to assume there are hundreds of Honus Wagner's floating around that aren't accounted for. Please.

Congratulations on owning four. Hopefully your children make a fortune one day selling them.

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

To suggest you can't draw conclusions from a pop report is ludicrous.

Apologies, you are correct, you can draw many conclusions from the pop report.

But, any of those conclusions that involve cards outside of the pop report won't be based on any sort of reality.

[bbcemporium]

Originally Posted by doug.goodman

Apologies, you are correct, you can draw many conclusions from the pop report.

But, any of those conclusions that involve cards outside of the pop report won't be based on any sort of reality.

Doug, you don't think the pop report can be used to draw any accurate conclusions in regards to rarity or condition sensitivity?

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by bbcemporium

Doug, you don't think the pop report can be used to draw any accurate conclusions in regards to rarity or condition sensitivity?

No.

The only certain conclusion that can be drawn from the pop report is that no more than the number listed have been looked at by the people who get paid for their opinions.

There have been numerous threads on Net54 regarding cards being resubmitted. I would be of the opinion that, on average, less cards have been looked at than are in the total pop report for many cards.

That's why I often joke that Dmitri Young should be used to submit cards to the opinion sellers, they always seemed to like his, even if they hadn't liked them previously (with a different owner).

[bbcemporium]

Doug, here is a graphical representation of the '32 President set showing population total graded by PSA. You're unable to draw any statistically accurate conclusions from this?

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by bbcemporium

Doug, here is a graphical representation of the '32 President set showing population total graded by PSA. You're unable to draw any statistically accurate conclusions from this?

Not in regards to how many exist in the entire world outside of the pop report. How could I?

It's certainly logical to assume (ASS U ME) that a similar breakdown proportionately would exist outside the pop report, but nothing in regards to actual counts.

Are there 10 more McKinley cards, or 10,000?

There is no way to KNOW.

Did the printer have a time machine hidden in his shed because he was actually from the future, and had gone back in time to print himself a bunch, but then he got stuck when his time machine got broken, so the extra cards he printed are being handed down to his (in the past) children, to eventually hand over to his (future) family so that they can all make a fortune from when they are worth way more than they currently are, to be sold just before my family crashes the market?

MAYBE!

Doug "maybe my grand father was that printer" Goodman

[bbcemporium]

Doug, you made the claim that no accurate conclusions can be drawn from the pop report, but you're now changing your claim to total population. I don't think anyone is making a claim that the pop report can be used to determine the total population of a card. As David pointed out, the pop report is far from perfect, but in my opinion, it is the best data source available, hands down, to analyze card rarity and condition sensitivity.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by bbcemporium

Doug, here is a graphical representation of the '32 President set showing population total graded by PSA. You're unable to draw any statistically accurate conclusions from this?

Well, I must admit that I am able to draw a valid conclusion from your graph.

If you have the highest pop or the lowest pop, you will be assassinated.

[tschock]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Well, I must admit that I am able to draw a valid conclusion from your graph.

If you have the highest pop or the lowest pop, you will be assassinated.

Classic!

[BengoughingForAwhile]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Well, I must admit that I am able to draw a valid conclusion from your graph.

If you have the highest pop or the lowest pop, you will be assassinated.

What about Garfield?

[barrysloate]

I don't think anyone would argue that an unbiased third party who could examine cards for alterations, and set a grade to determine value, would be an asset to the industry. But from that premise, to what actually takes place, is a vast abyss.

The TPG's are missing altered and trimmed cards at an alarming rate, the grading is so inconsistent that a card can be resubmitted three times and receive three different grades (it happens often), and it is believed by many that certain high volume submitters get preferential treatment with their grades.

So why don't we say that third party grading solves some problems, but creates a host of new ones. A far from perfect industry that, IMO, could be doing better.

[Peter_Spaeth]

4 McKinley's? That is amazing. Are they cancelled?

[BengoughingForAwhile]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

4 McKinley's? That is amazing. Are they cancelled?

Yeah, they all say Denali on them now.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by doug.goodman

Apologies, you are correct, you can draw many conclusions from the pop report.

But, any of those conclusions that involve cards outside of the pop report won't be based on any sort of reality.

I am completely baffled by your opinion on this topic. If someone thinks a Pop report is a perfect road map they are indeed mistaken as many cards are graded by one company and crossed over at some grade or cracked out and once again submitted to the other company falsifying the number of cards graded.

That said when a card comes from a very popular set of cards that have been heavily collected by advanced collectors for a long time time if there was a ton of them you would know it simply by looking at the Pop report.

Here is the sale from 2014 where they notate that less than ten copies are known. No where does it read that there aren't more but at this stage of card grading Robert Edwards is confirming it is indeed a rare card using the population totals.

https://www.robertedwardauctions.com...ly-discovered/


The 1914 Baltimore News Babe Ruth has three graded by PSA. Once again this doesn't mean only three exist but it is 100% accurate in conveying that it is indeed an incredibly rare card.

I can confirm once more 100% that a population report can be used to determine condition rarity. I only have one set of cards that is rare like your McKinley cards but I have lots of condition rarities. How come there is not a PSA 9 or PSA 10 of the 1982 Wrestling All Stars Series B Ray Stevens? When looking at the pop report it is the only card from all three sets that one doesn't exist. You don't think it is easy to ascertain by looking at this scenario that this card for some reason is tough in high grade condition? I will give you the answer because every single copy I have ever seen is cut 70/30 or worse and so none will qualify. Will one surface? I don't think one will ever surface but it might. But I know for certain there won't be many and therefore incredibly tough in high grade.

I am not certain if your opinion is based on extreme position bias because you don't like third party graders or what but you are simply wrong.

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

I am completely baffled by your opinion on this topic. If someone thinks a Pop report is a perfect road map they are indeed mistaken as many cards are graded by one company and crossed over at some grade or cracked out and once again submitted to the other company falsifying the number of cards graded.

I am equally as baffled by your opinion, but at least I have some logic on my side.

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

That said when a card comes from a very popular set of cards that have been heavily collected by advanced collectors for a long time time if there was a ton of them you would know it simply by looking at the Pop report.

No, you would not necessarily know that.

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

Here is the sale from 2014 where they notate that less than ten copies are known. No where does it read that there aren't more but at this stage of card grading Robert Edwards is confirming it is indeed a rare card using the population totals.

Auction houses like to use terms regarding how many are "known" If I open my refrigerator and note that based on the fact that I have one hot dog remaining from my Five Guys purchase yesterday (yes, their bacon cheese dogs are great), and say to you "I know of only three hotdogs" my comment would have no relevance or connection to the number of hotdogs in the world.

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

The 1914 Baltimore News Babe Ruth has three graded by PSA. Once again this doesn't mean only three exist but it is 100% accurate in conveying that it is indeed an incredibly rare card.

If by "incredibly rare" you mean that only three have been seen by the people who sell their opinions, then yes, you would be correct. That does not mean that the guy who lives up the street from you who you have never met doesn't have 8 of them in frames in his den, but he probably doesn't. But he COULD.

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

I can confirm once more 100% that a population report can be used to determine condition rarity. I only have one set of cards that is rare like your McKinley cards but I have lots of condition rarities. How come there is not a PSA 9 or PSA 10 of the 1982 Wrestling All Stars Series B Ray Stevens? When looking at the pop report it is the only card from all three sets that one doesn't exist. You don't think it is easy to ascertain by looking at this scenario that this card for some reason is tough in high grade condition? I will give you the answer because every single copy I have ever seen is cut 70/30 or worse and so none will qualify. Will one surface? I don't think one will ever surface but it might. But I know for certain there won't be many and therefore incredibly tough in high grade.

I don't know where to start with this paragraph, suffice to say that you CAN NOT "confirm ... 100%" as shown when you say "it might".

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

I am not certain if your opinion is based on extreme position bias because you don't like third party graders or what but you are simply wrong.

Actually my hatred of the people who get paid for their opinions is irrelevant to this conversation.

Prove me wrong, and I will apologize and agree with every comment you have made, and donate $1,000 to the schools or classrooms of your choice on https://www.donorschoose.org/

Doug "my hate does not define me, but your proof is not proof" Goodman

[Dpeck100]

No further comments from me Doug.

I am not going to change your mind and you are not going to change mine.

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

No further comments from me Doug.

I am not going to change your mind and you are not going to change mine.

Seems like you should try, if only to help the kids...

https://www.donorschoose.org/

A better place for the money that some of you pay to have people give you opinions about your cards.

And of course a better place for my money than the cards I buy.

Doug "I'm a riddle wrapped in an enigma, with logic sprinkled on top." Goodman


PS - I am not sure that all of my opinions expressed in this thread were actually opinions, many were statements of fact.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Man, let's forget this pissing contest where nobody is going to convince anybody of anything, to me the fact that Doug has 4 McKinley's is just huge.

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Man, let's forget this pissing contest where nobody is going to convince anybody of anything.

I'm not trying to convince anybody of anything, I am just pointing out fallacies in logic, and reminding those reading that not everybody kneels at the alter of those who get paid for their opinions.

Doug "but I have my knee pads if needed" Goodman

[Bored5000]

I think TPGs are a net positive for the hobby, but I don't really "get" the whole highest graded thing or the gigantic price disparity of a one grade difference.

Most of my cards in the $300-500 range, and none of them are worth more than $1,200, but at any price point, I would rather have an absolute rarity that only comes up for sale once a year or every few years than a condition rarity that can easily be found in very similar condition any day of the week.

I have one set listed on the PSA registry -- a set of 1972 STP racing cards. It isn't the highest rated set, and it never will be. But I love the set because there is only one other complete set listed, and the set is nearly impossible to complete in any grade.