Fake Signed T206 Cards (Too Many to List in the Title, See First Post for List)

[MichelaiTorres83]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

SGC doesn't grade that many cards and they probably weren't grading very many auto's so it is an easy business decision to shut down a line of business that you play a very limited role in the market in and one that you might be taking significant financial risk by doing. It might not have been profitable for them anyways.

I have only dealt with SGC once and felt like the process was smooth and was really happy with how the cards looked in their holders. The problem is the collecting pool is getting smaller and smaller for their cards and there may certainly be segments where the collector base is very solid and perhaps like them more than other third party graders but the general trend is slipping.

It is my understanding at one point recently that they might grade 10,000 cards in a good month. This isn't a very large business and the revenue is probably less than 1.5 million if not lower. I think a lot of people forget how small the third party authentication business really is. PSA has a market share that amounts to total domination of a market and they really don't make that much money. Collectors Universe through June of 18 only made 6.2 million in profit for the fiscal year and around 35% of the company is represented by PSA so we are not talking huge numbers.

I think it is a very real possibility at some point SGC goes away. It might not and I think having choices is better for a market but it certainly isn't out of the realm of possibilities. What I think is more likely is they keep maintaining a very small amount of market share and someone out there is making 400k or so a year to operate it and is totally fine with it. It will certainly be interesting.

If they go out of business it is bad for the slabs in general but there are once again probably some areas where the collectors are totally comfortable with what they bought and it won't be an issue at all. I don't collect the older cards so I don't have a real opinion that counts but on newer cards it certainly wouldn't be good for them in most cases.

Their revenue has to be much higher. Their process is terribly in efficient evident by anyone who has attempted to mail them a submission or submit at a show. If they got rid of half the morons and upped their efficiency profits would go up.

[Dpeck100]

The PSA division of Collectors Universe did $21,065,000 in revenue for 2018 and SGC is a fraction of their size. I think $1,500,000 might be generous and if not it isn't too far off.

[MichelaiTorres83]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

The PSA division did $21,065,000 in revenue for 2018 and SGC is a fraction of their size. I think $1,500,000 might be generous and if not it isn't too far off.

That number seems a lot more in line with what I would expect. 10 years max based on the 20 to 1 revenue. If PSA were smart they would buy them out and shut the brand down while they have opportunity.

[mantlefan]

Hopefully the beginning of the end for this poorly run franchise.

[Bigdaddy]

If SGC shuts down/gets bought out, I would expect another entrant into the graded card market. It is ripe for a franchise that uses computer vision to grade cards, with more precise and repeatable results. I would not be surprised if that entrant was PWCC, with the way they have been expanding their presence and offerings.

FWIW

[swarmee]

PWCC's entire push is "eye appeal" value increases, why would they become a grading company themselves. They'd have to switch their mindset to technical grading parameters again.
And while a whole bunch of people theoretically want computer grading to be a thing and assume the market will react favorably to it, most submitters want 1) uniformity in their collection (PSA set registry, SGC gasket holders, BGS thick protective holders, whatever), 2) more money for their sales, and 3) better grades. Those three companies have amazing "first mover" advantages over any startup, because submitters trust all three of those companies with cards valued at a million dollars apiece. I guess that would be one reason PWCC would be a theoretical entrant: they already have the market's trust.

I've offered this before, but if the highest graded vintage card would only grade an 8.5 due to being compared to modern chrome production (card stock variances, slightly off registration, slight rough cuts, etc), why would anyone send their NM-MT or better cards to this new company doing computer grading? When 90% of your market already has a grader of choice and has sunk costs of all previous grading fees and time spent cultivating their registry, why would anyone send them 1975 commons to make a complete set? I don't see a computer grading company getting traction.

[chalupacollects]

Originally Posted by swarmee

PWCC's entire push is "eye appeal" value increases, why would they become a grading company themselves. They'd have to switch their mindset to technical grading parameters again.
And while a whole bunch of people theoretically want computer grading to be a thing and assume the market will react favorably to it, most submitters want 1) uniformity in their collection (PSA set registry, SGC gasket holders, BGS thick protective holders, whatever), 2) more money for their sales, and 3) better grades. Those three companies have amazing "first mover" advantages over any startup, because submitters trust all three of those companies with cards valued at a million dollars apiece. I guess that would be one reason PWCC would be a theoretical entrant: they already have the market's trust.

I've offered this before, but if the highest graded vintage card would only grade an 8.5 due to being compared to modern chrome production (card stock variances, slightly off registration, slight rough cuts, etc), why would anyone send their NM-MT or better cards to this new company doing computer grading? When 90% of your market already has a grader of choice and has sunk costs of all previous grading fees and time spent cultivating their registry, why would anyone send them 1975 commons to make a complete set? I don't see a computer grading company getting traction.

Because collectors are tired of the inaccurate grading, errors, fraud, shifting grading standards and the myriad of problems we talk about here on a daily basis... I would think a new company that would enter the business can create a holder(s) that the collecting community would be happy with.... As a way to gain traction in the industry it wouldn't be to difficult for a new entrant to offer crossover specials to gain customers and loyalty,,,

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by swarmee

PWCC's entire push is "eye appeal" value increases, why would they become a grading company themselves. They'd have to switch their mindset to technical grading parameters again.
And while a whole bunch of people theoretically want computer grading to be a thing and assume the market will react favorably to it, most submitters want 1) uniformity in their collection (PSA set registry, SGC gasket holders, BGS thick protective holders, whatever), 2) more money for their sales, and 3) better grades. Those three companies have amazing "first mover" advantages over any startup, because submitters trust all three of those companies with cards valued at a million dollars apiece. I guess that would be one reason PWCC would be a theoretical entrant: they already have the market's trust.

I've offered this before, but if the highest graded vintage card would only grade an 8.5 due to being compared to modern chrome production (card stock variances, slightly off registration, slight rough cuts, etc), why would anyone send their NM-MT or better cards to this new company doing computer grading? When 90% of your market already has a grader of choice and has sunk costs of all previous grading fees and time spent cultivating their registry, why would anyone send them 1975 commons to make a complete set? I don't see a computer grading company getting traction.

I agree that with so many millions of cards in so many people's collections, and the registries, and the many dealers profiting handsomely from their PSA affiliations, it would be hugely difficult to make a significant inroads into PSA's market dominance. This was GAI's failure despite the excellence of Mike Baker as a grader, there just wasn't incentive for dealers and collectors to switch, and PSA has had another 16 years to entrench itself and has done a brilliant job of it. And I sure don't see PWCC having any incentive to make waves.