How does a player get WAR points ?

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by insidethewrapper

If Trout is like all the others before him , his SB's will go down a lot in the next few years (look at Canseco, Sosa, Soriano etc). I think he is already in the $ 30+ million/year range. In his 30's, his baserunning will no longer be an asset, in fact he has not had over 30 SB since 2013 (not over 30 for the last 5 years). 7 years and he has hit the 100 RBI mark 2 times (100,111).

I know he is a great player but I thought his stats were much better than this. Watching MLB Network I thought he was the greatest of all-time ( lifetime average is . 307 , you would think it was .350+ ).

Also I watch a lot of baseball games and I think most CF's are very good and fast. Not sure how some get rated higher than others, they all make great plays.

Teams win games by who scores the most runs. I still like RBI's .

Oh, come on. First off, he's hitting in the two slot. He hit 39 home runs last year, and drove in 79. That means hitting the ball out of the park almost 40 times, and all the other times he got a hit, he only drove in other Angels 40 times. 25 of his home runs were solo shots. What does that tell you? Nobody is getting on base ahead of him to drive in. Is that Trout's fault? Does his 79 RBI diminish his season? He had a 199 OPS+, for God's sake. He hit .312. AL League AVG was .249. He led the AL with 122 walks and a .460 OBP! League average OBP was .318. Slugged .628. League average SLG was .416. He OPSd 1.088, which was 343 points (.743) above league average. From the #2 slot.

He's freaking Mickey Mantle. You like the RBI? It's about the most useless stat in baseball, after pitcher wins. It's very much a metric of opportunity. By the way, Mickey Mantle drove in 100 + runs in a season four times. He led the AL in home runs three times where he didn't have 100 RBI.

1955 37 HR, 99 RBI
1958 42 HR, 97 RBI
1960 40 HR, 94 RBI

Know another reason why Trout doesn't drive in 100 every year, besides the fact that he bats second in the lineup? When he comes up, and players are on, he draws a lot of walks. Again, 122 walks last year. The last five seasons, he's averaged 113 walks per 162 games played, leading the AL with 110 in 2013, 116 in 2016, and 122 in 2018. His combined 40 intentional walks led the American League the last two years (15 in 2017, a Major League leading 25 in 2018). Yet, even with all those walks, he drives in 99 runs per 162 games played.

And who cares if he didn't steal 30 bases? Only three guys in all the Major Leagues stole over 40 bases. Only eleven stole over 30. Know who the most successful base swiper in the Majors was by success rate? Jackie Bradley of Boston. He stole 17 bases in 18 tries. 94.4% success rate. Know who was second best in the Majors? Mike Trout. He stole 24 bases in 26 tries. He was successful 92.3% of the time he went. And he hit 39 home runs. Trout's stolen 189 bases in 223 tries, an 84.8% career success rate. By percentage, he's a better base stealer than Rickey Henderson.

Trout does everything well. Over the last two seasons, he's walked (216) more times than he's struck out (214), while hitting .309, and OPSing 1.080, or 94% above league average. In seven years as a Major Leaguer, he's led the American League in OPS five times, and each of the last four seasons.

He had a 1.2 dWAR last year, which is Gold Glove caliber.

You thought his stats were much better? Maybe you need to adjust your thinking. It's the year 2019.

In seven years as a Major League full time player, Mike Trout has led the league:

Runs scored 4 times (Majors 3 times)
RBI 1 time
stolen bases 1 time (Majors 1 time)
walks 3 times (Majors 1 time)
OBP 3 times (Majors 2 times)
SLG 2 times
OPS 3 times (Majors 2 times)
OPS + 5 times (Majors 3 times)
total bases 1 time
intentional base on balls 2 times (Majors 1 time)

OPS+ measures a player's offensive performance (OBP and SLG) relative to the rest of the league. 100 is league average. Mike Trout's OPS+ for his career is 175. He's been 75% better than league average for his career. That 175 OPS+ is tied with Rogers Hornsby for fifth best....in the history of Major League Baseball. The only players better than Mike Trout after seven years as a full time player?

Babe Ruth
Ted Williams
Barry Bonds
Lou Gehrig

That's it. Just for shits and giggles, let's compare Trout to those guys at the same age. Mike Trout just finished his age 26 season. How does he rank compared to the all-time greats at the same age?

Babe Ruth 219 OPS+
Ted Williams 190 OPS+ (age 20-23 only. Was on active military service age 24-26)
Mike Trout 175 OPS+
Lou Gehrig 174 OPS+
Rogers Hornsby 173 OPS+
Barry Bonds 138 OPS+

Ruth and Williams, arguably the two greatest hitters in baseball history. Those are the only two better than Trout through his age 26 season. And they didn't play center field, and steal bases. And Williams maintained that OPS + across only four seasons. Trout has done it over seven. When a discussion of hitting is "Babe Ruth, Ted Williams and Mike Trout", it's time you rethink just how phenomenal the kid in Anaheim really is. He's a Hall of Famer. Right now. He could never play another inning, and he's a lock. Two MVP, four second place finishes, and a fourth place finish in seven seasons. And he was the best hitter in the Majors during that fourth place finish with a 187 OPS+. He only played 114 games, hence the lower vote.

Trout is playing at a level equivalent to that of the immortals of the game.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

He's a Hall of Famer. Right now. He could never play another inning, and he's a lock.

Except that he hasn't played 10 seasons yet...


Other than that I agree, he's on track to be one of the best ever.

[insidethewrapper]

His WAR can't be much this year yet ? Angels 1-6. Spending alot of $$$$ for 1 win. But it's still early, right ?

[Mike D.]

I really enjoy the vitriol a subset of fans have for WAR.

It makes me nostalgic for the vitriol a similar subset of fans had for OBP 20 years ago.

The more things change, the more they stay the same!

Granted, both then and now, there were some fans who think/thought WAR/OBP were the ONLY stat of value, although I'd wager that the number of straw-men who "thought" this were far higher than the number of fans who ACTUALLY thought that.

The way I look at it, if I look at the list of the top 100 players in career WAR, it's as good a list of the top 100 players in history as any. A few arguments here or there, but the vast majority pretty much jive with any other reasonable list.