Machado to Padres

[silvor]

10 years
$300 million

https://sports.yahoo.com/manny-macha...173812310.html

[Econteachert205]

Prediction: decent production for first two years followed by steep drop off.

[packs]

Very strange landing spot for him. Tatis Jr. is on the cusp of the major leagues and they play the same position, assuming Machado is still adamant about playing short.

I think he'll see a severe sap in his power numbers and find himself overshadowed in short order by Tatis Jr. and Luis Urias.

[Yastrzemski Sports]

He is going from a hitters park to a pitchers park. I don’t see this as being good. And the aforementioned block of Tatis makes no sense. Reminds me when the Yanks signed McCann even though Sanchez was their #1 prospect.

I’m not sure what Preller is up to but he doesn’t seem to have much of a game plan. When he first started he made a big splash by making a bunch of trades and signing Shields. It didn’t work. Then he traded a bunch of guys away and restocked the farm system - currently one of the best in baseball. That was working. So now last season he signs Hosmer and this season he signs Machado - 2 of the most ridiculous, bloated albatross contracts in a market where the other teams have learned better than to sign contracts like that. There seems to be little direction or consistency in terms of building a team from the Padres in the past few years.

After watching Machado in the post season last year, he is the last person I would want to provide leadership to a group of young, talented ballplayers. His performance in clutch situations fell short and he disgraced himself with his displays of poor sportsmanship. I’m just glad the Padres signed him and not my team.

[clydepepper]

Hey, the Padres have a 'great' history of successful free-agent signings, so let's give it a chance.

Is it possible that the Mets have a west-coast office?

[Peter_Spaeth]

I think with a fresh start, with his talent he'll do just fine. I agree the contract is insane, I bet nobody else was even close to that.

[packs]

They have several pitchers in the top 100 list this year but I wouldn't be too confident on any of them considering San Diego's complete lack of pitching develop. Jake Peavy was what....10 years ago? Just seems like an expensive way to lose.

[Peter_Spaeth]

It's odd to me that not a single playoff team made a pitch for either Machado or Harper. What's up with that?

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

It's odd to me that not a single playoff team made a pitch for either Machado or Harper. What's up with that?

10 years 300 mil is more than most teams could justify, I suppose. Manny was on a playoff and World Series team and did not exactly light it up offensively however he did seem to be pretty offensive. Great ball player but he comes with baggage.

[packs]

Machado doesn't really fit in anywhere on the playoff squads. Yankees have Gregorius, Torres and Andujar; Boston has Bogaerts and Devers; Houston has Correa and Bregman; Cleveland has Ramirez and Lindor; Atlanta has Freeman and Swanson; Chicago has Russell and Bryant; LA doesn't need him with Seager and Turner.

The Brewers might have made sense but they spent their money early on Grandal. They aren't the kind of team who is going to pay 300 mil either.

Harper is more of mystery.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

Machado doesn't really fit in anywhere on the playoff squads. Yankees have Gregorius, Torres and Andujar; Boston has Bogaerts and Devers; Houston has Correa and Bregman; Cleveland has Ramirez and Lindor; Atlanta has Freeman and Swanson; Chicago has Russell and Bryant; LA doesn't need him with Seager and Turner.

The Brewers might have made sense but they spent their money early on Grandal. They aren't the kind of team who is going to pay 300 mil either.

Harper is more of mystery.

Good analysis but as a Red Sox fan, leaving aside the baggage for the moment, I would take Machado over Devers or Bogaerts in an instant. We're talking about an elite hitter, and a fine infielder. I think he would have been great in Fenway. That said, I understand not wanting to lay out that kind of money and disrupt a championship team.

[packs]

I realized I'm off on Freeman. I remember him playing third in 2017 but he didn't play 3rd at all in 2018. They had Camargo there. He played reasonably well.

I think Boston probably passed because signing Machado would have meant trading either Bogaerts or Devers. Devers is cheap and they've got a lot of players coming up for free agency next year (Bogaerts included). I can see why they'd rather spread the wealth than put it all in one place.

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by packs

Machado doesn't really fit in anywhere on the playoff squads. Yankees have Gregorius, Torres and Andujar; Boston has Bogaerts and Devers; Houston has Correa and Bregman; Cleveland has Ramirez and Lindor; Atlanta has Freeman and Swanson; Chicago has Russell and Bryant; LA doesn't need him with Seager and Turner.

The Brewers might have made sense but they spent their money early on Grandal. They aren't the kind of team who is going to pay 300 mil either.

Harper is more of mystery.

I don't know if Harper is an underachiever who will never reach the level expected or just not as good as a lot of us thought.

He is still young but has had ample opportunity to get back to his MVP level, which, in hind-sight, may turn out to be his peak. I hope not though...I have almost as many Harpers as Trouts.

IMO, until he shows some consistency, he's not worth the 'max' deals.

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by packs

I realized I'm off on Freeman. I remember him playing third in 2017 but he didn't play 3rd at all in 2018. They had Camargo there. He played reasonably well.

I think Boston probably passed because signing Machado would have meant trading either Bogaerts or Devers. Devers is cheap and they've got a lot of players coming up for free agency next year (Bogaerts included). I can see why they'd rather spread the wealth than put it all in one place.

Freeman is a first baseman- 2017 only happened because they had signed Matt Adams while Freeman was injured...and Freddie volunteered to play third, even though he had not done so since HS (if my memory serves) - Adams was swinging a hot bat at the time, but Freeman was a liability at third.

Also, the Braves signed Josh Donaldson early on this offseason, looking to have him at third and using Camargo as a super-sub.

[KCRfan1]

Yes every MLB team can afford the top FA's.

However on the owners side, they still run a team as a business.

Is the team near the luxury tax? What will that cost me if I go over? How does the player fit the team in the coming years? Can the player help me win? Anticipating which players are going to the FA market in the next couple of years? Will I get a return on my money in attendance, merchandise sales not only this year but the years to come? What is the character of the player? Are they a leader or a mentor?

Players side, what's in it for me?

Do I want to win? If so, how long will I have to wait? Will I like the organization? Do I like the community or location? Will this move help my career? Is it only about the money? How important is my legacy with the team I was with prior to FA? Are there family obligations to location?

In terms of how long it has taken for Harper or Machado to sign, teams just aren't going to throw 300M around quickly.

And neither player was in a hurry to sign quickly anyway.

THEY said so themselves.

I'm not sure why other players are upset about how much time has passed.

It seems that the players have forgotten the agents work for the players. The players have received VERY poor advice from their agents.

Moose is a perfect example. Turned down a 17M qualifying offer last year from KC, tested FA and strongly rumored to have turned down a 4 and 60 from the Angels. Ended up signing with KC for 6 or 7 M. This year, reups with the Brewers for 1 year at 10M.

Surprisingly, Moose kept his agent rather than firing him. Boras.

The agents have failed to adjust to a changing market for the players.

Teams will spend, they're just being smarter with the dollars.

Players in their early 30's are not going to get a 5yr deal. 2 maybe 3, but not 5.

Kimbrel wanting all sorts of years and cash.....many times closers are interchangeable . Does a team spend the cash for Kimbrel or look internal or at a reasonable external player with a closer mentality?

Again, the agent needs to be in touch with market climate and honest with his client, the player. Teams are viewing Kimbrels ask as unreasonable.

There's no collusion. Owners are spending smarter. Time will tell if the Padres spent well on Manny. Hosmer needs to show better.

It will be interesting to see how the rest of the FA market plays out and who ends up where.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by clydepepper

I don't know if Harper is an underachiever who will never reach the level expected or just not as good as a lot of us thought.

He is still young but has had ample opportunity to get back to his MVP level, which, in hind-sight, may turn out to be his peak. I hope not though...I have almost as many Harpers as Trouts.

IMO, until he shows some consistency, he's not worth the 'max' deals.

Indeed in light of so many off years from Harper I might take Machado over Harper. Heresy perhaps.

[packs]

Originally Posted by clydepepper

Freeman is a first baseman- 2017 only happened because they had signed Matt Adams while Freeman was injured...and Freddie volunteered to play third, even though he had not done so since HS (if my memory serves) - Adams was swinging a hot bat at the time, but Freeman was a liability at third.

Also, the Braves signed Josh Donaldson early on this offseason, looking to have him at third and using Camargo as a super-sub.

They've also got Austin Riley knocking on the door for 3B too. Forgot about Donaldson but he may ultimately be a non-factor anyway depending on what he has left.

[Cmount76]

Is it possible that the Mets have a west-coast office?[/QUOTE]

I don't know if the Mets have a west coast office, but he isn't 33 and they aren't offering 2 mil per year in perpetuity. My guess is that this really is the Padres.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Apparently the Padres are still in the running for ... wait for it... Harper.

https://www.inquisitr.com/5307876/ml...ffer-phillies/

[KCRfan1]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Apparently the Padres are still in the running for ... wait for it... Harper.

https://www.inquisitr.com/5307876/ml...ffer-phillies/

Thanks for the update Peter !

If I'm Philly, I move on and wish Harper the best.

Mike Trout is firmly on radar, and that's where I focus.

As others have said, you don't know what Harper will give year to year, and Trout is consistent. More important . Trout loves Philly!

[packs]

I just don't know why the Padres aren't focused on starting pitching. It seems short sighted to invest in third base and outfield when you haven't had an ace in a decade plus. A host of top of the line pitching is scheduled to hit the market next year (de Grom, Sale, Hamels, Porcello, Bumgarner, etc.) that it would have made more sense for them to spend in 2020 than it did wasting 300 mil on a non-factor like Machado. He doesn't put them any closer to winning than they were without him.

[Yastrzemski Sports]

Agreed. Pitching wins. You need bats but all the bats in the world won’t help if you have no pitching. Machado will help San Diego as much as he helped Baltimore. Maybe 2-4 more wins.

Originally Posted by packs

I just don't know why the Padres aren't focused on starting pitching. It seems short sighted to invest in third base and outfield when you haven't had an ace in a decade plus. A host of top of the line pitching is scheduled to hit the market next year (de Grom, Sale, Hamels, Porcello, Bumgarner, etc.) that it would have made more sense for them to spend in 2020 than it did wasting 300 mil on a non-factor like Machado. He doesn't put them any closer to winning than they were without him.

[packs]

If they were on the cusp last year it would make sense that Machado could be the it factor they need. But they lost almost 100 games. So what are they going to lose this year, 90 instead?

Wouldn't it have made more sense and been significantly cheaper if they signed both Gio Gonzalez and Dallas Keuchel?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Yastrzemski Sports

Agreed. Pitching wins. You need bats but all the bats in the world won’t help if you have no pitching. Machado will help San Diego as much as he helped Baltimore. Maybe 2-4 more wins.

How did the 2018 Mets do with DeGrom and Syndergaard?

[packs]

You definitely need a little bit of everything. My point was I think the Padres already have / will have their bats. The pitching is a glaring hole.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

You definitely need a little bit of everything. My point was I think the Padres already have / will have their bats. The pitching is a glaring hole.

Supposedly they have good up and coming pitching from the farm system, but who knows.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

How did the 2018 Mets do with DeGrom and Syndergaard?

Tell me about it.

[KCRfan1]

The Mets pen was awful in 2018. Couple that with the overall health of the Mets SP and innings limits, the pen need to be lights out.

Pitching was key for the Mets in 2018, not the bats.

[Yastrzemski Sports]

When I said you need pitching - I mean a lot of it. Overall they were 16th in the league in era. Their bullpen stinks. They were also 24th in runs scored. So there’s that.

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

How did the 2018 Mets do with DeGrom and Syndergaard?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Yastrzemski Sports

When I said you need pitching - I mean a lot of it. Overall they were 16th in the league in era. Their bullpen stinks. They were also 24th in runs scored. So there’s that.

I did not realize they had nothing after the two starters. Still, as to your point, I don't see it necessarily as a bad move to pick up an elite slugger.

[Yastrzemski Sports]

10 year contracts in baseball do not work out well for the team. Especially at $30 mil per year. By the end of these monster contracts the teams are fighting luxury tax and trying to unload the guy to whoever will take him (see Ellsbury). Not to mention that Fernando Tatis Jr (padres #1 prospect, #2 overall in baseball) plays SS where Machado plans to play.

Machado never struck me as the elite, franchise, once in a generation player who would be worth $300 mil. For someone known as a slugger he has never hit .300, never hit 40 hr and this was his first 100 rbi season. He was never an mvp finalist. He’s also leaving a very hitter friendly ballpark. He’s a very good player but I wouldn’t put the teams next decade in his hands.

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I did not realize they had nothing after the two starters. Still, as to your point, I don't see it necessarily as a bad move to pick up an elite slugger.

[Peter_Spaeth]

He's averaging about 35 HR for the last 4 years. That's pretty good in my book. 1000 hits at age 26. 90+ RBI on an awful team. I agree on the 10 years, other than Trout there's nobody I would sign for that long.

[Jim65]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

How did the 2018 Mets do with DeGrom and Syndergaard?

Much better than if they didn't have them, hitting and the bullpen was the Mets problems, not deGrom and Syndergaard or Wheeler for that matter.

[packs]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He's averaging about 35 HR for the last 4 years. That's pretty good in my book. 1000 hits at age 26. 90+ RBI on an awful team. I agree on the 10 years, other than Trout there's nobody I would sign for that long.

I think Machado is a good player but do you think he's worth 30 mil a year? That's A-rod money and even though he was cheating, A-rod was a lot better than Machado.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

I think Machado is a good player but do you think he's worth 30 mil a year? That's A-rod money and even though he was cheating, A-rod was a lot better than Machado.

ARod was a decade ago and I assume salaries have gone up, but that said I saw him more as a 200M guy not 300 especially after his postseason antics.

[Bagwell-1994]

Originally Posted by clydepepper

I don't know if Harper is an underachiever who will never reach the level expected or just not as good as a lot of us thought.



He is still young but has had ample opportunity to get back to his MVP level, which, in hind-sight, may turn out to be his peak. I hope not though...I have almost as many Harpers as Trouts.



IMO, until he shows some consistency, he's not worth the 'max' deals.

My thoughts exactly. Harper is (assuming) trying to command a record-setting type free agent deal.. A-Rod/Pujols/Cabrera type money but he has nowhere near the consistency or numerous prolific seasons that any of those guys had to earn their hefty contracts. He has one brilliant 10-WAR season, and three 1-WAR seasons, all in all averaging 3.9 WAR per year. That's not elite/record setting money-worthy IMO. His best season is what Trout AVERAGES over every year of his career (9.1 WAR... close enough) perhaps not fair to compare people to Trout, just for point of reference.

Even Machado has averaged 4.8 WAR per season and has much more consistency in elite performance than Harper.

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[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Bagwell-1994

My thoughts exactly. Harper is (assuming) trying to command a record-setting type free agent deal.. A-Rod/Pujols/Cabrera type money but he has nowhere near the consistency or numerous prolific seasons that any of those guys had to earn their hefty contracts. He has one brilliant 10-WAR season, and three 1-WAR seasons, all in all averaging 3.9 WAR per year. That's not elite/record setting money-worthy IMO. His best season is what Trout AVERAGES over every year of his career (9.1 WAR... close enough) perhaps not fair to compare people to Trout, just for point of reference.

Even Machado has averaged 4.8 WAR per season and has much more consistency in elite performance than Harper.

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The book is still very much out on Harper, but given the undeniable potential, teams are going to take risks.

[packs]

I guess the question is whether or not there is potential to be better or only a potential that he continues to trend the other way.

[KCRfan1]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The book is still very much out on Harper, but given the undeniable potential, teams are going to take risks.

Looks like the only team to take the risk may be Philly. If I'm Philly, my offer is less now.

Aside from Harpers MVP season way back in 2015, he led the league in 1 category ( over a 7 year career ). That was last year in walks.

Huge chunk of change for a player that doesn't lead the league in anything, except walks one year.

I just don't see it. Maybe someone else does, but his stats don't add to 300 mil to me.

[Bagwell-1994]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The book is still very much out on Harper, but given the undeniable potential, teams are going to take risks.

I would understand taking a risk due to the potential upside as he enters his peak years. But it seems to me a shorter deal for high annual average salary would be more fitting and safe for the team involved. Reportedly turning down a 10-year $300 million offer from Nats implies he was searching for even MORE than that which is just ludicrous in my view. Gigantic money should be rewarded based on proven performance, not on potential, IMO.

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[the 'stache]

$30 mil a year to a guy with an attitude problem that half-asses it much of the time.

What could possibly go wrong??

[the 'stache]

I'm glad the Brewers never went after Machado. They wouldn't have ponied up anywhere close to $30 M, and to be honest, I think that they were encouraged by what they saw from Orlando Arcia. The kid was a top ten prospect in baseball, and they're not going to give up on him that quickly.

After a decent rookie year, he was awful last year for the first three months of the season. But when he went down to AAA, they tweaked his approach at the plate, and when he came back up, he was a different player. He hit .280 after coming back, and was fantastic in September, hitting .329 in 26 games while OPSing .805. And he was real good in the playoffs, going 11 for 33 with 3 home runs and a .985 OPS.

He's got some pop in his bat (had 15 home runs in about 500 ABs as a 22 year old, and his round trippers were split evenly between home and road), so it's not out of the question for him to knock 20 out a season. And his glove is elite. He's going to win multiple Gold Gloves.

[Peter_Spaeth]

The Harper melodrama needs to end soon. It's absurd at this point.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by KCRfan1

Looks like the only team to take the risk may be Philly. If I'm Philly, my offer is less now.

Aside from Harpers MVP season way back in 2015, he led the league in 1 category ( over a 7 year career ). That was last year in walks.

Huge chunk of change for a player that doesn't lead the league in anything, except walks one year.

I just don't see it. Maybe someone else does, but his stats don't add to 300 mil to me.

It's the promise of that one great season, plus flashes of his undeniable talent and the belief that he can somehow put whatever has held him back behind him. I'm not sure he's worth it.