Mariano

[Touch'EmAll]

Found some numbers. Career Save Percentage, only contemporaries:

Aroldis Chapman 90%
Trevor Hoffman 89%
Mariano Rivera 89%
Joe Nathan 89%
Billy Wagner 86%
Francisco Rodriguez 85%
Lee Smith 82%
John Franco 81%

And I like the stat "when leading by one run after 8th inning", odds of winning are 85%. 2 runs 93%. 3 runs 95%.

So you are going to win 4 out of 100 times more than the average when Rivera comes in to start the 9th with a 1 run lead.

Rivera's avg. games per season was 67. That translates out to Rivera being worth 2.7 additional wins per season over the league average.

Every win is gold in the world of MLB, especially in a pennant race. His 89% Saves is really good, but not necessarily super head and shoulders above other top relievers.

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by 100backstroke

And I like the stat "when leading by one run after 8th inning", odds of winning are 85%. 2 runs 93%. 3 runs 95%.

So you are going to win 4 out of 100 times more than the average when Rivera comes in to start the 9th with a 1 run lead.

Using that logic :

And 4 out of 100 times LESS than average with a 2 run lead

And 6 out of 100 times LESS than average with a 3 run lead

[Touch'EmAll]

doug, I don't know what % of his games he came in with 1, 2, or 3 run leads - didn't find that stat to compare 2 & 3 run games. I just assumed all 1 run games to keep it simple. How would you figure it?

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by 100backstroke

doug, I don't know what % of his games he came in with 1, 2, or 3 run leads - didn't find that stat to compare 2 & 3 run games. I just assumed all 1 run games to keep it simple. How would you figure it?

Shoeless_Moe posted a link to an ESPN story in the other Mo thread :

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/9...oved-respected

The numbers used there, attributed to David Smith (Retrosheet founder) are :
210 saves when he came in with an 85.7% chance of winning (1 run lead)
216 saves when he came in with a 93.7% chance of winning (2 run lead)
180 saves when he came in with a 97.5% chance of winning (3 run lead)
46 saves when he came in with better than a 97.5% chance of winning (4 runs or more)

David Smith posted a research paper on the retrosheet website :

https://www.retrosheet.org/Research/...fTheCloser.pdf

With the following conclusions :
1. The entry of a new pitcher to start the 9th inning has increased dramatically since 1980.
2. The presence of this new pitcher has had almost no effect on a team’s chances to win.
3. Ace closers bring slightly more wins than other 9th inning pitchers (92% vs 88%)
4. Performance of 9th inning pitchers is almost indistinguishable between closers and others.
5. Increased use 9th inning pitchers correlates with overall increase of relief pitchers.
6. Pitchers have had progressively shorter stints for over 100 years.
7. Current pattern of closer usage is not justified by their contributions to team wins.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by 100backstroke

Found some numbers. Career Save Percentage, only contemporaries:

Aroldis Chapman 90%
Trevor Hoffman 89%
Mariano Rivera 89%
Joe Nathan 89%
Billy Wagner 86%
Francisco Rodriguez 85%
Lee Smith 82%
John Franco 81%

And I like the stat "when leading by one run after 8th inning", odds of winning are 85%. 2 runs 93%. 3 runs 95%.

So you are going to win 4 out of 100 times more than the average when Rivera comes in to start the 9th with a 1 run lead.

Rivera's avg. games per season was 67. That translates out to Rivera being worth 2.7 additional wins per season over the league average.

Every win is gold in the world of MLB, especially in a pennant race. His 89% Saves is really good, but not necessarily super head and shoulders above other top relievers.

So by these stats the HOFer Lee Smith was significantly worse than the league average? I think there's an apples and oranges thing going on here though I can't articulate it.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

So by these stats the HOFer Lee Smith was significantly worse than the league average? I think there's an apples and oranges thing going on here though I can't articulate it.

There's a reason one of my friends always referred to him as Lee "lets make it interesting" Smith.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by steve B

There's a reason one of my friends always referred to him as Lee "lets make it interesting" Smith.

He was good on the Sox in the brief time he was here, but yeah he was not the model of consistency.