Reasons why prices of some vintage cards are going kinda CRAZY????

AGuinness · #1 01-19-2019, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

I picked on Celtics fans b/c the other day I was bidding on a T205 WAJO sgc 50 that I won for under a grand. I clicked on the sellers "see other auctions" and there was a Jayson Tatum at $4600 with an hour to go and 26 bids. I just thought it was humorous. There is a Jayson Tatum card with a BIN of $200,000.00 on eBay. My post was in response to Pete's title that states "some vintage card prices going crazy."

Nice score on the WaJo! I'm with you on the modern stuff. But it's not just crazy, it's bat-sh!t-insane-asylum crazy.

rats60 · #2 01-19-2019, 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AGuinness

Nice score on the WaJo! I'm with you on the modern stuff. But it's not just crazy, it's bat-sh!t-insane-asylum crazy.

Recent sales on modern cards
Playoff Contenders Tom Brady RC 12433.00
National Treasures Stephen Curry RC 12700.00
Bowman Chrome Mike Trout RC 19750.00
Upper Deck Exquisite Kevin Durant RC 40105.00

t206 cards are cheap. We have been collecting for so long that we have become oblivious to price increases in the hobby. I bought the cards discussed here for 20-50 dollars. Cobbs for 100-200 dollars. Back then modern rookies were 1-5 dollars.

There are several factors here. Investors shifting money from other investments to high end vintage. Also, modern collectors who are used to paying 500-1000 for a pack of cards and selling modern cards for thousands of dollars shifting to vintage. Neither group is concerned with what these cards sold for 5, 10 or 35 years ago. They see a track record of gain in hobby staples and that is where they want to park their money.

AGuinness · #3 01-19-2019, 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rats60

There are several factors here. Investors shifting money from other investments to high end vintage. Also, modern collectors who are used to paying 500-1000 for a pack of cards and selling modern cards for thousands of dollars shifting to vintage. Neither group is concerned with what these cards sold for 5, 10 or 35 years ago. They see a track record of gain in hobby staples and that is where they want to park their money.

I guess I see the modern market as a much different beast than the vintage one, perhaps even so much so that they are separate markets altogether. What happens in one doesn't necessarily have much bearing on what happens (or might happen) in the other. So I don't necessarily see the speculation in the modern market having a strong connection to what is happening to prices in the vintage one.
In that way, I don't believe that adage, "a rising tide lifts all boats" for cards. A record sale for a PSA 6 1952 Topps Mantle doesn't necessarily mean anything for other 1952 Topps, other Mantles or even other graded 1952 Mantles, and even less for cards from other eras of other players. And sometimes a card is even a market unto itself.

rats60 · #4 01-19-2019, 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AGuinness

I guess I see the modern market as a much different beast than the vintage one, perhaps even so much so that they are separate markets altogether. What happens in one doesn't necessarily have much bearing on what happens (or might happen) in the other. So I don't necessarily see the speculation in the modern market having a strong connection to what is happening to prices in the vintage one.
In that way, I don't believe that adage, "a rising tide lifts all boats" for cards. A record sale for a PSA 6 1952 Topps Mantle doesn't necessarily mean anything for other 1952 Topps, other Mantles or even other graded 1952 Mantles, and even less for cards from other eras of other players. And sometimes a card is even a market unto itself.

Maybe in the past, but that line is disappearing. I see more and more guys that collect modern cards looking to enter the vintage market. Guys "invest" in a young player and hit it big, so they look to put part of their profits into key vintage cards that don't have the risks involved like modern cards do.

AGuinness · #5 01-19-2019, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rats60

Maybe in the past, but that line is disappearing. I see more and more guys that collect modern cards looking to enter the vintage market. Guys "invest" in a young player and hit it big, so they look to put part of their profits into key vintage cards that don't have the risks involved like modern cards do.

But isn't that an example of moving the money into a different market? I'd like to make a perfect comparison, but I'm sure this will be clunky as I'm not well versed on investments: I see your example not unlike somebody making money in one investment (derivatives, perhaps?) and going into something else (blue chip stocks, I suppose). I don't think those would be grouped together in the same market, just as I don't think vintage and modern are in the same market.
There are certainly factors that overlap with modern and vintage cards, but I guess I see many factors that are different, particularly the artificial scarcity of the 1/1, the gambling on an unfinished career (prospecting), etc.
Perhaps this is all semantics, but from my point of view, there are enough differing factors and influences that it creates a separation of markets in which what happens in one doesn't necessarily have a bearing on the other.

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