Need help with the super modern cards...

[HasselhoffsCheeseburger]

Is it profitable? I mean, I'm sure it's just like every other release in the history of baseball cards. I don't think it's ever been consistently profitable to open boxes and sell what's inside. If it were, the market would push the price of the boxes up.

The lottery aspect has been mentioned but there's also the adrenaline aspect. We definitely didn't have the opportunity to pull a $2,000 card out of a $20 box when we were kids.

Setting aside the hobby for a moment, the sport of baseball has seen an unprecedented amount of young players enter MLB in the last decade and immediately succeed. It's been written about and pondered and I'm not sure there's been an explanation for it. Kids are debuting at 19 & 20 years old and becoming All-Stars. It's unheard of. Just look at 2018: Ohtani, Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Gleyber Torres, and Miles Mikolas. Studs. All with their rookie cards in 2018 product.

This makes your safety net pretty wide; more chances to hit a card that covers your expenses.

As far as the PSA 10s -- the quality control is extremely high with the modern products. I'd say at least 50% of the cards come out of the pack in PSA 10 condition. The manufacturers have vastly improved their methods, which makes sense considering the amount of money they're charging for their product.

It's funny this got brought up as I find myself getting pulled deeper and deeper into the 2018 baseball line of products. There's a handful that I really like and who doesn't enjoy opening a box of packs every now and then?

Arthur

[G1911]

Not a fan of the speculating or this collecting style myself, but I don't think anything funky is up with the 10's. I build base sets for almost nothing as people almost throw away the base cards these days, and it is pretty difficult to find a Topps/Bowman Chrome card that isn't perfect. Quality control is high, doesn't surprise me they are getting so many 10's

[yanksfan09]

Originally Posted by G1911

Not a fan of the speculating or this collecting style myself, but I don't think anything funky is up with the 10's. I build base sets for almost nothing as people almost throw away the base cards these days, and it is pretty difficult to find a Topps/Bowman Chrome card that isn't perfect. Quality control is high, doesn't surprise me they are getting so many 10's

Yea, probably at half or so cards grade a 10 out of the pack these days, just a guess. I don't know if any modern guys have real stats on that.

That's one thing I really hate about new cards, Mint condition "9" cards are almost seen as low grade these days. Just stupid in my opinion. Big premiums for 10's when 9's look the same and many times are/were the same card and were resubmitted. Too much silliness.

[AGuinness]

Originally Posted by HasselhoffsCheeseburger

I don't think it's ever been consistently profitable to open boxes and sell what's inside. If it were, the market would push the price of the boxes up.

This is spot on. The market sets a price on modern boxes where it's more likely than not that the cards in the box won't rise to that amount.

Anecdotally, I do some flipping on COMC and in the past two years have used some proceeds to buy boxes of Topps Heritage through Blowout Cards. I got very lucky and had some good hits, because otherwise, I would have come nowhere near recouping the cost of the boxes from the card proceeds. Of course, my costs for the boxes also include submission fees for putting the cards for sale through COMC, too.

On the positive side, part of why I have done this is because I think there is some emotional value in ripping open a box of cards. It's fun to get a chance to be a kid again - although I'm not ripping open cases and cases like the guys who chase the big modern parallels, etc. I think opening that much product would become a chore.

[ls7plus]

It's best to remember the new and old card markets are not independent of one another, IMHO. Instead, they are and will be inevitably linked, as today's stars and super stars become yesterday's heroes. Their cards will then be subject to the same criteria that those of the HOF'ers of the '50's and '60's on back are, and adjustments based on supply and demand will be made. What was big money in the new card market in the early '90's took a nasty fall by the mid to late '90's. Either the astronomically priced newer cards will take a huge dip in value, or the vintage market will be blessed with a big surge, or a combination of both. A lot of the new card big bucks is based on speculation and transient demand, the latter moving on to the newest and latest big thing.

Buy what brings you joy,

Larry

[HasselhoffsCheeseburger]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

It's best to remember the new and old card markets are not independent of one another, IMHO. Instead, they are and will be inevitably linked, as today's stars and super stars become yesterday's heroes. Their cards will then be subject to the same criteria that those of the HOF'ers of the '50's and '60's on back are, and adjustments based on supply and demand will be made. What was big money in the new card market in the early '90's took a nasty fall by the mid to late '90's. Either the astronomically priced newer cards will take a huge dip in value, or the vintage market will be blessed with a big surge, or a combination of both. A lot of the new card big bucks is based on speculation and transient demand, the latter moving on to the newest and latest big thing.

Buy what brings you joy,

Larry

The '90s market is doing pretty damn good for itself these days. Third party grading has shot a lot of that stuff higher than it's ever been.

Arthur