recent auto counterfeits - the effects on auto collecting??

[perezfan]

On a personal level, I am shying away from autographs more these days.

Much of the lustre has worn off for me (for the time-being, anyway) and there are so many other segments of the hobby to collect... both in terms of cards and memorabilia.

The TPGs are "iffy" at best (nothing new) and I've always favored doing my own homework over blind reliance on them. But this whole episode just adds another negative variable, and makes me want to shift my interest elsewhere.

I'm sure the hardcore autograph guys will remain undeterred, but it's never been my primary focus, anyway.

[Exhibitman]

One of those Historic Autographs things with a card and cut in a custom PSA/DNA slab sold the other night in Sterling with a T206 Flick and Flick 'shaky old man' cut for $167 including vig. The card was a decent looking g-vg Piedmont 150 which would have gone for $100-$150 as a slabbed card in and of itself. So, basically, the bidders discounted the PSA/DNA cut signature to a very low value.

[mrvster]

dumping near close to 100k on a high end auto, and the tpg got it wrong, chet in the back "cooked" up the auto....too risky....

I would want a photo of the player signing the piece!

[Laxcat]

There is only one Auto I’m chasing in 2019. Nile Kinnick is the major whole in my Heisman collection. I believe if I find one with the right provenance I’ll pull the trigger.

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by mrvster

dumping near close to 100k on a high end auto, and the tpg got it wrong, chet in the back "cooked" up the auto....too risky....

I would want a photo of the player signing the piece!

High end collectors have spent a lot more on pre-war high grade cards residing in 8, 9 and 10 holders, as well as major game used uniforms/equipment. Do the 3rd party graders have these types of collectibles at a 100% certainty level? The simple answer is no. Vast collecting niches in this hobby require sone “leap of faith” based on the TPG’s assessments, not just autographs. If it makes the collector uncomfortable, stay away. If it doesn’t, God Bless and go for it. Most collectors with high-end purse strings continue to prove they will test that “leap of faith” collecting angle, and don’t expect that to change in the near future.

[obcbobd]

I had always thought that some day after the mortgage was set and retirement $ was in good shape, that I would really splurge and get a signed Ruth Goudey. PSA/JSA.

I'm a year or so away from being able to do that. I've changed my mind

[Republicaninmass]

Wasnt there a fake Magie portrait posted in a psa 5 holder? Money wise, it probably beats all the signed t206s in the whole thread added up. Funny that the title is "too many to list". What about the fake missing color, ghosts, and scraps, trimmed high grade t206s, etc, etc. Ad nauseam.

These seem light years easier to fake. I'll stick to buying autos.


Sell now while you can!

[mrvster]

I'm in complete agreement with you....

Ted....I hear you, but it would be 1000 % easier to just sign a piece instead of cooking up a scrap or ghost....how could you add cardboard without extensive work??? or create ghosts and try to wash out color ect.....all undertakings that would require extensive work for the profit involved....some almost insane to do(like adding extra borders ect)

also, magie and doyle have been tried to be faked, but they are super focused on now, and can be fairly easy to detect(black lights, 20x loupes).....I'm sure there is a possibility, but no way like the ease of signing an auto....I hate to say it, but I'm sure many kids could do a great job at it


trimming cards and getting them holdered also occurs, but prob these above mentioned things- fake doyle, magies, creating scraps ect would be much more difficult or take some kind of advanced skill to try to pull it off.....I'm sure there are some that have probably slipped by, but I'm going to venture not like the scale of a potential autograph deceptions...

too easy to pick up a pen or sharpie and practice...thousands could probably even do a great job....

unfortunately, no real 100% way to tell with autos....unless you got it yourself or have some kind of provenance, family, photos ect.....and even then the piece could be swapped out....

unfortunately, this scammer with the t206 signing counterfeit sham shed light on the ugly proverbial elephant in the room....and has brought the skeptical perception now on autos which sucks!


if I was going to get a legit auto, I would want a check or legal document or a photo to accompany/be the piece for added value/confirmation of being legit...

Ted....do not want to bash auto collecting, I know you have a beautiful auto collection and do not want to take away any of that prestige, or thunder from anyones hard work and money and years they have pumped into it.....

just very disappointing that a few money hungry greedy basatrds ruin shit for many of the legit pieces.....now a lot of doubt is raised on all autos, not like it hasn't in the past, but the skepticism is even worse now that tps are fooled a lot more....autos are just too easy to fake

just plain sucks!

[griffon512]

Originally Posted by Vintageclout

High end collectors have spent a lot more on pre-war high grade cards residing in 8, 9 and 10 holders, as well as major game used uniforms/equipment. Do the 3rd party graders have these types of collectibles at a 100% certainty level? The simple answer is no. Vast collecting niches in this hobby require sone “leap of faith” based on the TPG’s assessments, not just autographs. If it makes the collector uncomfortable, stay away. If it doesn’t, God Bless and go for it. Most collectors with high-end purse strings continue to prove they will test that “leap of faith” collecting angle, and don’t expect that to change in the near future.

Vintageclout makes a great point regarding the "leap of faith" among virtually all collectors, not just vintage cards/memorabilia. It starts with the fact that most collectibles have an intrinsic value of close to $0. The value we attach to these collectibles is a matter of psychology and people have proved throughout history that they want to attach sometimes immense amounts of value to items that don't inherently have any. Tulip bulbs anyone? To someone unfamiliar with our culture, investments in old pieces of cardboard with images on them -- many of which are altered -- would seem as ludicrous as buying coins, stamps, antiques...or tulip bulbs.

How about paper currency? It's only worth as much as collective faith in the monetary system. Speaking of faith, how did the Church become the most powerful force in the modern world for hundreds of years? Most people are prone to believe -- that underpins everything and always will.

How many perceived hobby crises do we have to go through before people come to the conclusion that the next crisis is not going to destroy a large segment of the hobby? The answer is many more. Why? There is so much money involved that there will continue to be "bad actors," and those prone to catastrophisizing and generalizing will mistake discoveries of the deeds of those bad actors as a doomsday scenario.

It will take a sustained downturn in risky assets where high-end spenders have most of their exposure (e.g., real estate, stocks) for psychology to be shaken, not a net54 thread, despite how good the work on that thread was. Mark Twain could have been talking about vintage card autographs when he wrote "the rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated." I don't think he's turning over in his grave about our latest crisis.

[mrvster]

my leap of faith won't be with my wallet

too easy to fake an auto....give a kid a pen and a few hours to practice and James Spence will be fooled

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by mrvster

my leap of faith won't be with my wallet

too easy to fake an auto....give a kid a pen and a few hours to practice and James Spence will be fooled

Card doctoring just as easy....if not more. To each his own.