10K for a Young portrait in a 5

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

From my own experience as an auctioneer, I occasionally saw new collectors with deep pockets enter the hobby with a "kid in a candy store approach". They tried to buy everything at once, and often burned themselves out very quickly. So if a few of them have recently entered the T206 market, that could easily skew prices.

And of course there is nothing nefarious at all about it, just a bunch of wealthy people trying to amass an instant collection. Of course, I have no idea if this is the case, but it could be one explanation for rapidly escalating prices. A few of them could be competing against each other.

Another possibility is the people paying the prices are investors who see an opportunity. That 5 that went for $10k is a very nice looking card, that in a different era would probably be described as Nr Mt (or even higher). The last 8 sold for $114k. If prices for 8's hold at that level, or increase, nice looking 5's don't seem too expensive at $10k. I get it that the supply of 5's is a lot greater than 8's. But then so in theory should be the demand, as there are a lot more people who can afford $10k for a card than $114k.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

Another possibility is the people paying the prices are investors who see an opportunity. That 5 that went for $10k is a very nice looking card, that in a different era would probably be described as Nr Mt (or even higher). The last 8 sold for $114k. If prices for 8's hold at that level, or increase, nice looking 5's don't seem too expensive at $10k. I get it that the supply of 5's is a lot greater than 8's. But then so in theory should be the demand, as there are a lot more people who can afford $10k for a card than $114k.

Yes, compared to the 8 the 5 seems like a more than fair price. But I agree with the others that there is no logical reason for T206's to be rising at such a rapid rate. Sooner or later, something's got to give. These are very available in all grades all the time.

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Yes, compared to the 8 the 5 seems like a more than fair price. But I agree with the others that there is no logical reason for T206's to be rising at such a rapid rate. Sooner or later, something's got to give. These are very available in all grades all the time.

Not all 5's have the same aesthetic appeal. My suspicion, as others have noted, is that the supply of 5's that look like the one that went for $10k might not be as plentiful as people think. So what we might be seeing in part are collectors and/or investors FINALLY starting to shift the pendulum (a little) toward buying the card, not the holder.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

Not all 5's have the same aesthetic appeal. My suspicion, as others have noted, is that the supply of 5's that look like the one that went for $10k might not be as plentiful as people think. So what we might be seeing in part are collectors and/or investors FINALLY starting to shift the pendulum (a little) toward buying the card, not the holder.

Corey, from my perspective cards that are strong for the grade have been selling for a premium for many years. Nothing new there.

[Touch'EmAll]

Whatever the reason for big price increase, ok, nice and fine by me, puts a smile on my face when I see the auction results. We should be happy our investments, er, collections are rising in value. Heckuva lot better than the market tanking, that's for sure. Nobody has a crystal ball, and I hope if/when a market correction downward happens it still ends higher than the old floor level. If no market correction downward, so much the better! Fingers crossed all that other cool pre-war major HOR'er stuff gets a little trickle down. Go Baseball cards !

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Corey, from my perspective cards that are strong for the grade have been selling for a premium for many years. Nothing new there.

Perhaps so Peter, but what is new here is that more of a premium seems to be put on the appearance of the card. Or, to say it another way, taking out of consideration the grade of the card, if one were to put side by side the 5 Young next to the 8 Young, based solely on appearance, should the 8 sell for 11-12 times the 5 (and that is the 5 valued at $10k)? Seems to me that assuming the 8 prices hold, not only will these new 5 prices hold, but they may in fact have room to increase. There is a lot of money out there looking for a place to be invested, and I can see how people could feel such a Young at $10k is a good investment.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

Perhaps so Peter, but what is new here is that more of a premium seems to be put on the appearance of the card. Or, to say it another way, taking out of consideration the grade of the card, if one were to put side by side the 5 Young next to the 8 Young, based solely on appearance, should the 8 sell for 11-12 times the 5 (and that is the 5 valued at $10k)? Seems to me that assuming the 8 prices hold, not only will these new 5 prices hold, but they may in fact have room to increase. There is a lot of money out there looking for a place to be invested, and I can see how people could feel such a Young at $10k is a good investment.

I guess time will tell, but as far as your explanation, I see no reason that mindset would suddenly start to prevail in December 2018, when all the same considerations have been in play for many years.

Personally I am not looking to buy any of these, I have what I want, and I'm always happy to see my cards nominally go up in value, but from a detached perspective I just don't understand the meteoric price rise.

[barrysloate]

If you're a new collector prepared to spend some big money on baseball cards, and you need some advice about what to buy, and you find an experienced dealer to guide you, I bet nearly every one of them recommends T206. New collectors are invariably told they can't go wrong buying nice examples of key Hall of Famers. So the demand for this stuff is off the charts.

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

Perhaps so Peter, but what is new here is that more of a premium seems to be put on the appearance of the card. Or, to say it another way, taking out of consideration the grade of the card, if one were to put side by side the 5 Young next to the 8 Young, based solely on appearance, should the 8 sell for 11-12 times the 5 (and that is the 5 valued at $10k)? Seems to me that assuming the 8 prices hold, not only will these new 5 prices hold, but they may in fact have room to increase. There is a lot of money out there looking for a place to be invested, and I can see how people could feel such a Young at $10k is a good investment.

Well said....spot on accurate!