10K for a Young portrait in a 5

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by Leon

When I see the cards I want for my collection, next time, then the grades won't matter. I will pay multiples of regular value for the right ones. I suspect many other collectors might do the same thing. Not too, too long ago I remember bidding around 5k on a PSA 1 T205 Cobb.....which is about 4-5x the value of a regular one. It was a great card and I should have gone higher. So 10k for a really great looking 3k-4k card doesn't surprise me that much.

Great post. I agree with your suspicions that many more collectors are bidding like this today.

[Peter_Spaeth]

We learned nothing from 2016 prices, it seems. People defended off the charts prices then and will defend off the charts prices now.

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

We learned nothing from 2016 prices, it seems. People defended off the charts prices then and will defend off the charts prices now.

There are lessons to be learned, for sure, but I don't believe the premise that a 5-figure Cy Young 5 is akin to a 6-figure Clemente 8.

[Snapolit1]

I think there are fewer players in the deeper end of the pool than people appreciate. If two or three of them decide there is something they must have prices can go nuts very quickly. Same thing if some extraordinary rich dude decides he wants to start spending money on cards with both hands. I think the introduction of new rich guys - who don’t know about historical valuation and really doesn’t give a whit - can really change things quickly.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I think there are fewer players in the deeper end of the pool than people appreciate. If two or three of them decide there is something they must have prices can go nuts very quickly. Same thing if some extraordinary rich dude decides he wants to start spending money on cards with both hands. I think the introduction of new rich guys - who don’t know about historical valuation and really doesn’t give a whit - can really change things quickly.

This is certainly a possibility...as are other scenarios.

[MichelaiTorres83]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I think there are fewer players in the deeper end of the pool than people appreciate. If two or three of them decide there is something they must have prices can go nuts very quickly. Same thing if some extraordinary rich dude decides he wants to start spending money on cards with both hands. I think the introduction of new rich guys - who don’t know about historical valuation and really doesn’t give a whit - can really change things quickly.

I have spent time ensuring I didnt overpay to find the perfect card at the perfect price only to find out i waited so long... so perfectly that the prices went up that if i hadnt done so wrt to the price i would have came out ahead. Pull the trigger is my motto at this point on THE card. If you have to wait out the justification....eh. No problem. I am a collecter.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

There are lessons to be learned, for sure, but I don't believe the premise that a 5-figure Cy Young 5 is akin to a 6-figure Clemente 8.

Sam, the 2016 run up involved plenty of cards in 4 and 5 figures. I'm not sure what's happening now -- I was quite sure back in 2016 because it was so obvious and pervasive -- I only note my skepticism when cards suddenly go off the rails.

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Eye appeal greatly affects market value. Since 2015, cards with superior eye appeal, highlighted by the PWCC Certified High End brand, have realized prices 65% higher than market value on average. A complete download of all PWCC-HE sales and related statistics is available on PWCC Marketplace website.

The premium paid for cards with superior eye appeal and highlighted by the PWCC-HE designation reveals an investment trend largely in its infancy. As a key investment variable, the eye appeal of a vintage trading card seems destined to have an increasingly significant impact on market value for the foreseeable future. Investors are encouraged to take notice of this topic and invest accordingly.

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

We learned nothing from 2016 prices, it seems. People defended off the charts prices then and will defend off the charts prices now.

These posts appear to be on opposite sides of the issue. Did someone just pay over market value for this card because of the exceptional eye appeal? Or are you saying these are being run up like the 50s and 60s HOF rcs were? I would lean towards the former but have noticed a big jump t206 prices the last year or two.

[MVSNYC]

1. It's Cy Young
2. It's T206
3. It's a Portrait Pose
4. It's a stellar example for the grade (I wouldn't think twice if this was in a 5.5 or 6 holder).

I think Cy has actually been undervalued for years...now it's turn to get a light shined on him (like we've previously seen on Cobb, WaJo, Matty). Speaker, Lajoie on deck.

[Millerd33]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

1. It's Cy Young
2. It's T206
3. It's a Portrait Pose
4. It's a stellar example for the grade (I wouldn't think twice if this was in a 5.5 or 6 holder).

I think Cy has actually been undervalued for years...now it's turn to get a light shined on him (like we've previously seen on Cobb, WaJo, Matty). Speaker, Lajoie on deck.

Lajoie has seen insane price increases. It wasn't long ago that was an 85.00 card as a 1. Now you can't touch one under 200.00.

Speaker saw a small jump a few months back and has really cooled off.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

1. It's Cy Young
2. It's T206
3. It's a Portrait Pose
4. It's a stellar example for the grade (I wouldn't think twice if this was in a 5.5 or 6 holder).

I think Cy has actually been undervalued for years...now it's turn to get a light shined on him (like we've previously seen on Cobb, WaJo, Matty). Speaker, Lajoie on deck.

Michael, let me give you some context....

The other night, four (4) very nice looking, mid-grade, common-back, T206 HOF portraits sold for relatively massive amounts. Listed below is the card, its grade, what it sold for, and -- according to VCP -- what the highest that card in that grade has every sold for, at auction (I dont trust all "BIN"s), prior to the other night's auction:

Frank Chance Red, PSA 6, sold for: $1,851- Prior Highest PSA 6 Sale: $1,365 (Memory Lane, 5/6/17)** (a 35.6% increase)
Christy Mathewson, PSA 5, sold for: $6,200- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $3,600 (REA, 5/6/18) (a 72.2% increase)
Walter Johnson, PSA 5, sold for: $7,713- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $3,608 (PWCC, 6/8/16) (a 113% increase)
Cy Young, PSA 5, sold for: $10,010- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $4,000 (PWCC 9/8/15) (a 150% increase)

** Note that the same exact Chance card, in an SGC 6 flip, was sold at a PWCC auction 11/12/17 for $1,007 (an 83.8% increase in 1 year and a cross from SGC to PSA)

I dont know why these four cards, and specifically the Wajo and Young, both of which sold for double their prior record high, went for so much. But these results are not normal. These are not uncommon cards, even with great eye appeal. Perhaps Mr. Deep Pockets did show up to this auction and didn't mind spending $10k for a previously $3500 card. But remember it took at least two bidders to get these cards to where they sold. Also, you would expect that someone (Mr. Deep Pockets), who was in a position to (over)spend $10k on a card, would be wise enough to know that $10k was a wee-bit steep compared to all prior sales going back to 2008 (and even if they don't have VCP, they can go on ebay, or PSA, or google it -- the info is out there).

Look, maybe there are plausible, innocent, or market-based explanations for this. Indeed, I sure hope so. Or maybe there was foul play. All i can tell you is keep your eyes wide open because it is VERY noteworthy when relatively common cards sell for 100%+ all prior sales.

[ullmandds]

It is also interesting to note that numerous opinions on here come from people who own/are affiliated with AH’s or who derive income from the hobby think this is all normal and natural.

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Michael, let me give you some context....

The other night, four (4) very nice looking, mid-grade, common-back, T206 HOF portraits sold for relatively massive amounts. Listed below is the card, its grade, what it sold for, and -- according to VCP -- what the highest that card in that grade has every sold for, at auction (I dont trust all "BIN"s), prior to the other night's auction:

Frank Chance Red, PSA 6, sold for: $1,851- Prior Highest PSA 6 Sale: $1,365 (Memory Lane, 5/6/17)** (a 35.6% increase)
Christy Mathewson, PSA 5, sold for: $6,200- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $3,600 (REA, 5/6/18) (a 72.2% increase)
Walter Johnson, PSA 5, sold for: $7,713- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $3,608 (PWCC, 6/8/16) (a 113% increase)
Cy Young, PSA 5, sold for: $10,010- Prior Highest PSA 5 Sale: $4,000 (PWCC 9/8/15) (a 150% increase)

** Note that the same exact Chance card, in an SGC 6 flip, was sold at a PWCC auction 11/12/17 for $1,007 (an 83.8% increase in 1 year and a cross from SGC to PSA)

I dont know why these four cards, and specifically the Wajo and Young, both of which sold for double their prior record high, went for so much. But these results are not normal. These are not uncommon cards, even with great eye appeal. Perhaps Mr. Deep Pockets did show up to this auction and didn't mind spending $10k for a previously $3500 card. But remember it took at least two bidders to get these cards to where they sold. Also, you would expect that someone (Mr. Deep Pockets), who was in a position to (over)spend $10k on a card, would be wise enough to know that $10k was a wee-bit steep compared to all prior sales going back to 2008 (and even if they don't have VCP, they can go on ebay, or PSA, or google it -- the info is out there).

Look, maybe there are plausible, innocent, or market-based explanations for this. Indeed, I sure hope so. Or maybe there was foul play. All i can tell you is keep your eyes wide open because it is VERY noteworthy when relatively common cards sell for 100%+ all prior sales.

[Throttlesteer]

It's possible someone purposely ran it up. But, someone still has to put the final bid in, right? If it's not worth the $10k, then don't put in the bid. We've seen some blatant cases of shilling over the years, but I'm not convinced that all of these record prices are the work of a nefarious person shilling.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

It is also interesting to note that numerous opinions on here come from people who own/are affiliated with AH’s or who derive income from the hobby think this is all normal and natural.

I am one of the former who is not one of the latter.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Look, maybe there are plausible, innocent, or market-based explanations for this. Indeed, I sure hope so. Or maybe there was foul play. All i can tell you is keep your eyes wide open because it is VERY noteworthy when relatively common cards sell for 100%+ all prior sales.

This.
I don't understand the reflexive defense of highly unusual prices. Remember 2016 and proceed with caution. In this hobby, legitimate prices rarely, if ever, skyrocket overnight.

[paleocards]

By the way, Rhotchkiss' hypothetical "Mr. Deep Pockets" was the winner of both the Young and the WaJo cards: eBay ID "8***g (57)," but someone else won the Matty: "e***e (359)."

And I'm the idiot who held the prior record for most dollars spent on a WaJo portrait in 5. I won it from PWCC in June of '16 (as Rhotchkiss reported) for $3608. Instead of buying that summer I should have sold my PSA 7 Koufax and PSA 8 Ryan RCs! Here's my WaJo (I had been hunting for a nice 5 for over 2 years):


WaJo_09_PSA.jpg


And this past summer, I finally landed my Matty portrait at the Cleveland National for $3K (cash) from a dealer from Long Island:


matty09_PSA5.jpg


Although they may not be as nice as the examples just sold by PWCC (my wife chose the PWCC ones over mine when I asked her to compare both pairs - dammit!), I don't think that my WaJo and Matty are only half as nice as the new record setters. In retrospect, I'm very happy to have gotten my cards when I did, and for what they cost me!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Those are very nice 5s, exactly of the sort I look for myself.

[Throttlesteer]

Originally Posted by paleocards

By the way, Rhotchkiss' hypothetical "Mr. Deep Pockets" was the winner of both the Young and the WaJo cards: eBay ID "8***g (57)," but someone else won the Matty: "e***e (359)."

And I'm the idiot who held the prior record for most dollars spent on a WaJo portrait in 5. I won it from PWCC in June of '16 (as Rhotchkiss reported) for $3608. Instead of buying that summer I should have sold my PSA 7 Koufax and PSA 8 Ryan RCs! Here's my WaJo (I had been hunting for a nice 5 for over 2 years):


Attachment 336663


And this past summer, I finally landed my Matty portrait at the Cleveland National for $3K (cash) from a dealer from Long Island:


Attachment 336664


Although they may not be as nice as the examples just sold by PWCC (my wife chose the PWCC ones over mine when I asked her to compare both pairs - dammit!), I don't think that my WaJo and Matty are only half as nice as the new record setters. In retrospect, I'm very happy to have gotten my cards when I did, and for what they cost me!

Beautiful 5s!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

These posts appear to be on opposite sides of the issue. Did someone just pay over market value for this card because of the exceptional eye appeal? Or are you saying these are being run up like the 50s and 60s HOF rcs were? I would lean towards the former but have noticed a big jump t206 prices the last year or two.

The first post was quoting Brent. Sorry if that wasn't clear.

I don't have a theory yet, just on alert.

[dariushou]

I can't say that i've followed this thread very closely, but wouldn't "Mr. Deep Pockets" be going for something better than a PSA 5. Why stop at 5 when money doesn't matter? I know i wouldn't stop at a PSA 5 if i had the dough. There's a decent pop over PSA 5.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by dariushou

I can't say that i've followed this thread very closely, but wouldn't "Mr. Deep Pockets" be going for something better than a PSA 5. Why stop at 5 when money doesn't matter? I know i wouldn't stop at a PSA 5 if i had the dough. There's a decent pop over PSA 5.

First of all there can always be something nefarious going on as we have all seen so many times. But when I put my thinking cap on, for this card, it just doesn't seem like it would be one to try to corner the market on and raise all prices. As for why someone with all the money would stop at a 5 is because this 5 probably looks better than most 6s or 7s. I almost guarantee I would take it over most higher grade cards. Maybe the smart money bought the card they thought looked best and kept their other money for other cards?

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by Leon

First of all there can always be something nefarious going on as we have all seen so many times. But when I put my thinking cap on, for this card, it just doesn't seem like it would be one to try to corner the market on and raise all prices. As for why someone with all the money would stop at a 5 is because this 5 probably looks better than most 6s or 7s. I almost guarantee I would take it over most higher grade cards. Maybe the smart money bought the card they thought looked best and kept their other money for other cards?

Forget about cards Leon. Think of the hammer price of your thinking cap at auction. Where will you consign?