10K for a Young portrait in a 5

[Chuck]

I'm a relative newbie to T206 collecting, but just how accurate are these pop reports from PSA and SGC? I hear you all talk all the time about resubmitting cards for grading, hoping to get a higher grade from the other company. Then the new owner may do the same - then a new owner may do it yet again. How many times has the same card gone through the grading process with these same companies, to be added, yet again, as another entry to the pop report? I'm guessing the numbers are significantly inflated.

And I agree - what percentage of these cards have the degree of centering and registration - that eye-popping presentation to them - that that EX Young portrait has - among those graded in that range? Not that many. I'm a budget collector - usually purchasing cards in the PSA 2-4 range (as my budget allows), but I see 6-8 range cards all the time that I would have no interest adding to my collection, due to odd centering or registration characteristics. I'm not a cardboard collector, so some minor creasing and corner wear (which on a T206 can actually add to the appearance in my opinion) on a card pale in significance to me versus centering, clarity, and overall presentation. Give me a well centered, well registered "3" over an "8 OC" any day!

[Rhotchkiss]

Simply put, the prices that the t206 portraits brought last night are not normal.

[DeanH3]

10K is steep, but I feel like I've been saying that about prices for years. They keep rising. I'm sure we will see a pull back at some point, but examples that are centered with bold color and registration will still command a premium. It took me a long time to find a Young and Red Cobby that had all three qualities.

[Rhotchkiss]

Show off!!

[Peter_Spaeth]

I know it's hard to draw conclusions from bid histories, but there were 5 bidders north of 4K. 4 had 100 percent bidding with PWCC and the 5th had 97 percent. All had under 100 feedbacks.

[bounce]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I know it's hard to draw conclusions from bid histories, but there were 5 bidders north of 4K. 4 had 100 percent bidding with PWCC and the 5th had 97 percent. All had under 100 feedbacks.

I noticed similar, particularly what I would consider the low feedback.

Not entirely sure what it means, but for now I think I'm leaning toward it being buyers who just got overly excited overly the quality of those cards and got caught up in a bidding war.

When prices are rising and the quality is there, it's easy to justify overpaying.

Prices only go up...until they don't.

[DeanH3]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Show off!!

[Throttlesteer]

The one positive thing from all of this is a big supply of slightly off-center, less-than-perfect registered specimens that can be had for a bargain

[Leon]

When I see the cards I want for my collection, next time, then the grades won't matter. I will pay multiples of regular value for the right ones. I suspect many other collectors might do the same thing. Not too, too long ago I remember bidding around 5k on a PSA 1 T205 Cobb.....which is about 4-5x the value of a regular one. It was a great card and I should have gone higher. So 10k for a really great looking 3k-4k card doesn't surprise me that much.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Leon

When I see the cards I want for my collection, next time, then the grades won't matter. I will pay multiples of regular value for the right ones. I suspect many other collectors might do the same thing. Not too, too long ago I remember bidding around 5k on a PSA 1 T205 Cobb.....which is about 4-5x the value of a regular one. It was a great card and I should have gone higher. So 10k for a really great looking 3k-4k card doesn't surprise me that much.

Perhaps, but it's never happened before, apparently. Many of these prices smashed all records. These surely aren't the first examples of very nice for the grade T206s.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Perhaps, but it's never happened before, apparently. Many of these prices smashed all records. These surely aren't the first examples of very nice for the grade T206s.

More collectors are coming to their senses and collecting cards and not flips?

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by Leon

When I see the cards I want for my collection, next time, then the grades won't matter. I will pay multiples of regular value for the right ones. I suspect many other collectors might do the same thing. Not too, too long ago I remember bidding around 5k on a PSA 1 T205 Cobb.....which is about 4-5x the value of a regular one. It was a great card and I should have gone higher. So 10k for a really great looking 3k-4k card doesn't surprise me that much.

Great post. I agree with your suspicions that many more collectors are bidding like this today.

[Peter_Spaeth]

We learned nothing from 2016 prices, it seems. People defended off the charts prices then and will defend off the charts prices now.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Leon

When I see the cards I want for my collection, next time, then the grades won't matter. I will pay multiples of regular value for the right ones. I suspect many other collectors might do the same thing. Not too, too long ago I remember bidding around 5k on a PSA 1 T205 Cobb.....which is about 4-5x the value of a regular one. It was a great card and I should have gone higher. So 10k for a really great looking 3k-4k card doesn't surprise me that much.

+1. The best examples of significant cards such as the Young are most likely in what the coin world would refer to as "strong hands,' meaning their are few enough of them that they are not coming out anytime soon until the money is right, as it was for this one. In a slightly different context, key, rare but off-grade cards are soaring too--apparently $13,500 for a SGC 1.5 poor to fair 1907 Dietsche Fielding Pose Cobb in a November, 2018 auction. That was music to my ears, since I bought a PSA 5 example of that rare rookie for $4,000 in 2011, and also acquired a 1907 Wolverine News Cobb Portrait 3-4 years ago for what would probably be a fourth to a fifth of its' current value.

For those who weren't around in the early to mid '90's when I began looking for the 1925 Exhibits Gehrig rookie, they were largely nowhere to be found, until finally I happened upon a VG example at the '98 National. What had occurred was that the people that had them knew there weren't very many and how significant they were. Few were therefore willing to sell until prices soared into what these collectors believed the card's proper value was. As prices did begin to rise to these levels, more came out. I believe exactly the same thing is happening with the '39 R303A Ted Williams rookie. There aren't that many around, and virtually all of them are in "strong hands," with those that have them realizing the immense significance of the rookie card of what is the first or second best hitter of all time (depending upon your up-to-date sabermetric measuring stick). These collectors don't need the money at recent price levels, know they have a far better looking and tremendously scarcer Ted rookie than the '39 Playball, and won't be parting with them anytime soon at anything like "current" book values. IMHO, as one who predicted the rise of the rarer Cobb rookie post cards, you'll see more of the R303A rookie come out when VG or even G examples are in the $7500+ range, and even more when they hit $10,000+. Look for the far rarer '39 V351 to soar far higher.

The sale of the Young card fits into the above analysis due to its' great centering and tremendously clean appearance--regardless of technical grade, I don't believe there are that many to match it.

Plus, the newer card market is out of whack with the vintage market. Either the former is due to have a precipitous fall, the latter a substantial climb, or a combination of both.

Just my thoughts and best wishes to all.

Larry

[Peter_Spaeth]

Larry, very cogent thoughts as always, but what you said was also true a year ago, and two, and three, and so on.