10K for a Young portrait in a 5

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by 100backstroke

I suppose you can call them common. But the top tier HOF'ers in EX5 and higher are seeing the market less often these days. 5-10 years ago eBay seemed to semi regularly have them available, through several basic Joe sellers like us. Honestly, they are now surfacing with not as much regularity. I bet the quantity of people in the demand department is also up significantly compared to 5-10 years ago. This grouping of major T206 HOF'ers was strong on condition for the grade - more so than other pwcc similar groups. I drooled, then checked my budget, then sat back and sighed - out of my price range anymore. Glad I picked up these puppies years ago and stashed them. I showed my wife some prices last night - she wants to sell a couple for new carpet, hmm, don't know about that.

I think this is the best post in the thread. The fact is a well-centered Cy Young Portrait in a 5 is not common card at all. People seem to pay all sorts of premiums for a common T206 with a rare back because we can seemingly quantify the rarity via pop reports. If only we could quantify the rarity of very strong eye appeal cards, my anecdotal belief is that the premiums paid would not seem that outrageous. I'm sad to admit I check eBay and auctions on a daily basis for cards like Cy Portraits, and cards like that just don't appear that often in my observation. I can understand someone going strong if they're sick of waiting. I didn't buy it, by the way.

[bounce]

Oh how quickly we've forgotten 2016. I understand it's not quite apples to apples, but the bigger point still applies. The Koufax example could be replaced by dozens if not hundreds of others.

1955 Topps Sandy Koufax PSA 7
- Prior to 2016, sells consistently under $2000
- Steadily climbs in price to May 2016 - when at least 4 cards sell over $6000, with a peak reported price of $6800
- July-Sept 2016 seems to settle back down in the $4000-4500 range (give or take 10%), with a couple exceptions as high as over $8000
- Steadily declines from there to $2500-ish first half of 2017
- Declines further during 2nd half of 2017 with several below $2000
- Bounced around between $2000-3000 all of 2018

1969 Topps Lew Alcindor PSA 8
- Prior to 2016, sub $2000 card
- Explodes in first half of 2016 to over $10000
- Collapsed back to $5000-ish last half of 2016, with one $14000 PWCC HE outlier
- Declined back to $4000-5000 mostly, with a handful of exceptions in the $8000 range that have literally impeccable centering and probably are bump candidates. A PSA 9 on this card is really tough and really rare.


This thread was about the Young, but there were numerous others from last night that were awfully big changes.

Red Chance 6 that I think had been crossed from SGC to PSA, took it from $1100 previously to $1850

Cobb bat off P5.5 $10200 - REA sold a nice 6! last year for $7800.

SGC 50 Red Cobb with registration that makes it appear he's looking up to the sky - $4100 - REALLY?!?!

Wajo P5 $7700 - that's DOUBLE several previous sales of $3000-3500 that are nice looking cards

Mathewson P5 $6200 - also nearly DOUBLE several previous sales of $3000-3600 for equally nice looking cards

Ruth 33 Goudey Yellow SGC 5 $15600 - marked high end despite L/R off center and mild tilt - similar cards sold earlier this year in the $10-11k range

38 Goudey Dimaggio 4 $4350 - similar cards were $3500 previously

I have owned 5s or better of all the Cobb, Johnson, Mathewson and Young portraits at one point or other in the past. It is just my opinion, but I don't consider any of those particularly RARE cards. These were very nice looking, but I've seen plenty of others that were also nice looking previously that weren't effectively double the previous selling prices. Yes, many of these sit in collections and somewhat off-limits, but that's not a forever phenomenon on these cards. That's much more applicable with the 7s and 8s - not the really pretty 5s.

I'm sure there are plenty of other examples, those above are just the ones that caught my eye because I was BLOWN OUT bidding on them. Undoubtedly there will be many more coming tonight with the mid-50s RCs.

One that interestingly went the other way was the Magie error. Seems like maybe someone got a heck of a deal on that if that's a card you're into.

Overall I do think these prices have shown the strength in the big name guys and their popular cards. However, what concerns me a bit more is what is really at the core of these prices and is it really a step change in price, or just some new entrants that got far too excited?

I think it's probably prudent to be cautious of drawing too many conclusions from this single auction.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Are we seeing the next generation of so called market pushers? People seemed to fall for it in 2016, so maybe if that's what's happening, they will again. I can still hear people mocking me saying those prices back then that DR references were just competition for nice cards.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Pretty much what I was saying in my post Peter. If it walks like a fish, talks like a fish and stinks like a fish...

[Throttlesteer]

Honestly, the same discussion comes up almost every month with PWCC auctions. They do have nice stuff and it does seem quality material comes up less frequently. I was priced out of almost everything last night but felt good not falling for the mayhem. I did get a nicely-centered PSA 5 Eddie Collins M116 for a good deal. But, there just isn't the craziness for M116s..........yet.

[Chuck]

I'm a relative newbie to T206 collecting, but just how accurate are these pop reports from PSA and SGC? I hear you all talk all the time about resubmitting cards for grading, hoping to get a higher grade from the other company. Then the new owner may do the same - then a new owner may do it yet again. How many times has the same card gone through the grading process with these same companies, to be added, yet again, as another entry to the pop report? I'm guessing the numbers are significantly inflated.

And I agree - what percentage of these cards have the degree of centering and registration - that eye-popping presentation to them - that that EX Young portrait has - among those graded in that range? Not that many. I'm a budget collector - usually purchasing cards in the PSA 2-4 range (as my budget allows), but I see 6-8 range cards all the time that I would have no interest adding to my collection, due to odd centering or registration characteristics. I'm not a cardboard collector, so some minor creasing and corner wear (which on a T206 can actually add to the appearance in my opinion) on a card pale in significance to me versus centering, clarity, and overall presentation. Give me a well centered, well registered "3" over an "8 OC" any day!

[Rhotchkiss]

Simply put, the prices that the t206 portraits brought last night are not normal.