2011 Topps Update Mike Trout Question?

Originally Posted by ls7plus

The demand for Trout is still comprised of too large a portion of speculation and transience, the latter meaning it will depart and "pledge allegiance" to another player when the next, latest and greatest hottest thing comes along. Trout has yet to match even Mantle's third best season (1961--check the OPS+ stats, if you doubt me), let alone his peaks in 1956 and '57, at a time when Trout should be in his absolute prime. I understand the urge to buy now and thereby pick up a "piece of the action," but I think that his prices will come down when he hits his 30's downslide, a la Albert Pujols. Or he might suffer a shoulder or other injury as Eddie Matthews did in '62, taking him down from being a great player to simply a good one. A lot of people were talking about Matthews, not Aaron, breaking the Babe's career HR record before that (Eddie had 370 by the time he was 30, as I recall, but hit just 142 more in the next 6 seasons combined).

I just wouldn't consider him a real investment vehicle at this point. IMHO, there is going to be a severe correction in the newer card market, just as there was in the early to mid-'90's, as prices such as $35K+ for a one of 50 Trout refractor rookie in just NMt-MT+ and $99,000 for a PSA 10 '93 SP Jeter, of which literally thousands exist in the higher grades, simply don't make sense.

Good luck to you either way you choose,

Larry

That is my thought as well. It seems that even if Trout were to become the greatest player of all time, that the amount of Topps Update in the market would level the value. In the event that Trout takes a dive as nearly every player in the history of MLB has done, there will be a more extreme value correction.