Are some cards too rare for their own good?

[Tao_Moko]

Originally Posted by Leon

As a collector of scarce cards I often wonder if some cards/series are too rare for their own good?

Yes

[jefferyepayne]

Definitely! You'll notice that many very low Pop cards don't go for what you would think given their scarcity. While their supply is definitely low, there might not be enough demand (i.e. active collectors / interest in the set) to maintain a high price.

jeff

[steve B]

I suppose it depends on where you draw the line for "rare" If you use a card like the Wagner as the benchmark chances are you already own a rare card. I'd guess that every OJ and certainly every OJ cabinet are more rare. Figuring it as < around 60 known. I probably forget a couple, but I'm probably at a bit over 20 baseball cards that are tougher than a Wagner, a bit under 20 if OJs don't count. And I'm not counting modern numbered inserts at all.

Add in non-sports and that is at least 20 cards more.

Collect long enough and with little enough focus besides going for the strange and likely under appreciated and you'll get there pretty easily. Taken all together there's got to be thousands of rare cards to be had.

I don't think the rarity is in any way "bad" in any way other than financially. As others have said, without the buzz and popularity they just aren't as valuable as the stuff with better PR value.

What if .......... the Wagner was a common? I think our entire hobby would be very different. Maybe the Plank takes over as the driving force to popularity? Maybe not, the old story of a broken plate isn't as glamorous as the story of a player refusing because of kids and Tobacco. Even if neither is true.

Other than the sheer number of modern numbered cards, I don't buy the manufactured rarity argument. Or, maybe I should........Yeah, send me all those cheap manufactured rarities - Ivy Andrews R300, 33 Goudey Lajoie. (HEY very interesting parallel for another thread) The US Caramel Lindstrom (And McKinley) They're obviously all junk


Steve B

Originally Posted by the 'stache

Hi Leon,

First of all, this is a really interesting topic, I think. I've never considered whether super scarcity could potentially be a negative, but here's where I come down on the topic at hand after a little reflection.

I think I'm closer to the "no" side on this issue. I don't think there's anything inherently bad about the existence of some cards with incredibly low populations. While it's true that the super scare cards may sit permanently in somebody's private collection, and never see the light of day, that doesn't necessarily preclude those cards from being discussed here, or on any hobby-oriented website.

In a way, there's something romantic about cards that are so scarce that the chance of ever seeing one in person, let along owning a copy, are slim to none. Obviously, I don't mean romantic in the most commonly used sense of the word. But I don't think there's anything wrong with pining for that white whale card that would take one's collection to a level that was previously considered unattainable. Suffice it to say that some of the greatest collections ever assembled are owned by current Net 54 members. I can completely understand the reluctance these people might have to discuss their most valuable pieces. Not everything has to be on display for the world to see. I've been told in no certain terms that some of the pieces I don't know about would blow my mind. And, I'm ok with not knowing. Who knows, maybe some point down the road, many years from now, perhaps one of these collectors will contact me to show me some of their most prized possessions. If I will have earned their trust, then I will be happily browse through whatever they have to offer.

Leon, I would also think some of these rarer pieces would fuel collectors like yourself. I'll own some really nice cards in my life, but I don't know how many truly rare pieces my collection will ever include. However, for an advanced collector such as yourself, would these pieces drive you more? I would expect pursuing that kind of a card would be an entirely different exercise, one that required the help from other friends and contacts within the hobby. Maybe I'm off base here, but I would expect the thrill of the hunt for that rare card would be pretty exhilarating.



Barry, I cannot speak for anybody else on the forum, but I can say that if I'm not talking about those rarer cards, it's due to a lack of knowledge. I think I just don't know they exist. I would certainly be game for discussing anything rare. I'm always willing to learn!

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by steve B

Taken all together there's got to be thousands of rare cards to be had.

There's the rub, methinks. When the cards are so rare that most collectors are not aware of them those same collectors think of them as "one of those thousands of obscure rare cards" rather than, e.g., one of a dozen(?) Niagara Baking cards. And if it's just classified as one of thousands of oddball rarities then it doesn't seem rare enough to create excitement for collectors who aren't specifically into whatever particular thing it's a rare example of.

Same things happens if you follow sports. Watch Sportscenter pretty much any night of the year, and you'll hear about some incredibly rare feat that just happened in a sporting event earlier that day. Rare events happen all the time, which is to say rare events are pretty common. Any occurrence is rare is you specify enough criteria that have to be met.

And same thing (once again) with baseball cards. That's where the ACC has the big influence. It gives us a standard means of categorizing the cards so we can compare degrees of rarity without each coming up with our own arbitrary criteria.

[brian1961]

Steve Birmingham eloquently brings across some pivotal forces and catalysts that, historically, have transformed some rarities from pipe dreams or virtual unknowns into a frenzied fight for the few. Distilled to four words, the crucial driving force, as Steve worded it, is "the buzz and popularity".

Even then, that has not always worked. Specifically, there needs to be strong buzz AND popularity, a weakness or absence of either one usually spells, "ehh, so what."

Starting out with a famous case where the cards were anything but unknown, in 1985-86 when "Mr. Mint" Alan Rosen bought the case of 1952 Topps high numbers, before which time those were considered impossible dreams to own in near mint or better. The Mint Man did not have to do very much to create a frenzy for those cards, except "prove" he only had the one case, and no more was forthcoming. Twas indeed a brief window of opportunity, for which some collectors still smack their heads at their initial skepticism, and now forever wish they had jumped on this chance they let slip through their fingers.

In the mid-80s, Joshua Evans I believe found the long unknown no. 16 of the 1932 U.S. Caramel set --- Fred (Lindy) Lindstrom. Josh gave it the moniker, "The Million Dollar Card", representing his stated price. Enormous interest and speculation ensued. However, there just wasn't enough interest from the wealthy collectors. He tried very hard in the pages of Sports Collectors Digest, using well-done full-page advertisements. After all, Fred was a Hall-of-Famer; but he, along with everyone else, was not Babe Ruth. I felt very bad for Josh, because I sensed he really had an outstanding card with a superb background story. It was as if hobbyists wanted to punish the man for trying to capitalize in such a big way on his find.

Then there's the 1933 R306 Butter Cream missing card that finally turned up, and sure enough, it WAS Babe Ruth. The resultant furor over this Sultan of Swat gem consisted of excellent hobby coverage with loads of prognostications among vintage collectors. At about this time or so, millions of other collectors were obsessed with stock-piling their Greg Jeffries rookie bricks, and could not care less. The Butter Creams are neat slender cards and the Ruth was a decent pose. The card has sold for big, big bucks. Sadly, it really is genuinely rare, period. Perhaps there's three known, and one was tragically thrown away by a major hobby figure; by accident of course. Should another example turn up, in decent condition, I imagine it will make the seller quite pleased with the result.

Finally, there's one regal rarity of Ty Cobb that would garner several hundred thousand dollars, IF AND WHEN a nice specimen turns up. It's too rare, some might quip, but our Ty Cobb connoisseurs would want it in a heart beat. I speak of the 1910 Washington Times Ty. In a nutshell, its rarity stems from the fact that all Washington Times are rare. Few survived the ravages of time. You may view the cards, including our beloved Tyrus Raymond, on the site of OLD CARDBOARD, in their listing of sets. Studying the stirring visage of Ty's face, he's fully prepared to give his opponent on this day a dreadful, nightmarish beating!!!!!!!!!!!

A million dollar card, or at least half a million.

And why not?

No, of course I don't own one. Never saw one in person. The first time I laid eyes on the Washington Times Cobb was in a Mastro auction catalog early in this millennium. Instantly, THIS TY caught my eye.

These may very well have been distributed in the same way as the Baltimore News Orioles & Ravens. With the close proximity between Baltimore and Washington, it would seem the two sets were thought up and printed by the same firm, as their designs so mirror each other. Sure, Ty's T3 is the Peach's best card, and much much prettier, and very hard to find in nice condition. Notwithstanding, there's something mysterious and mesmerizing about the Washington Times---its crimson red regal look, combined with its rarity, combined with its diabolical difficulty to attain even at the time of its release, and finally the most important facet --- the aforementioned pungent portrait of Ty that speaks such deafening nonverbal trenchant words. A 500-carat Padparadscha sapphire of a card! Ah, the stuff cardboard dreams are made of!

Too rare for its own good? I guess it just depends if the card stirs the heart, the mind, and the spirit of at least a few collectors. ---Brian Powell

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

I have the utmost respect for Adam's opinions, but in my view, the 1914 Baltimore News Ruth's marketing followed the fact that it is an extremely rare (11? 12? 13?) and significant card of the player most consider the best who ever lived. The latter factors facilitated the marketing and created the value. The marketing did not create tremendous value, although it certainly maximized it. I would not be surprised (and in fact would expect that its value will surpass the T206 Wagner, despite the popularity of T206, due to the Baltimore News' far greater rarity, and that, IMHO, it is at least as significant a card.

Time will tell, but it would not surprise me if the Babe approached or exceeded eight figures in value in my lifetime.

Best regards,

Larry

I don't think it will ever catch up. The T206 is the legendary card of the hobby. It will always represent the pinnacle of collecting. I don't see the Ruth ever having that same cachet. I'd rather own the Ruth if I had to choose one, but he is my favorite prewar player.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

I have the utmost respect for Adam's opinions, but in my view, the 1914 Baltimore News Ruth's marketing followed the fact that it is an extremely rare (11? 12? 13?) and significant card of the player most consider the best who ever lived. The latter factors facilitated the marketing and created the value. The marketing did not create tremendous value, although it certainly maximized it. I would not be surprised (and in fact would expect that its value will surpass the T206 Wagner, despite the popularity of T206, due to the Baltimore News' far greater rarity, and that, IMHO, it is at least as significant a card.

Time will tell, but it would not surprise me if the Babe approached or exceeded eight figures in value in my lifetime.

Best regards,

Larry

I wonder if this already can happen..

[clydepepper]

Rare with an even smaller market:

1941 Play Ball - Carl Hubbell (Hand-Cut) PSA-9.jpg

[oldjudge]

In answer to Leon’s original question—No. Rarity does not depress price. If there is one Four Base Hit of player X, the card would be worth more than if there were 10 cards of player X. However, as was pointed out above, supply is only half of the value equation. If there is little demand for the series the card is in then even being rare may not translate to much value. Being part of a collected set, especially a really popular set, translates rarity/scarcity into significant value. The T206 Wagner is not a rare card; it is just a scarce card of a popular player in a heavily collected set. Virtually every Old Judge pose is scarcer than the T206 Wagner, but there isn’t one, except maybe the Anson in Uniform, that is in the same zip code for value as the Wagner.
Some cards can be hyped to create enough demand to overcome seemingly adequate supply. The ‘52 Topps Mantle is the poster boy for this. This card isn’t rare; it’s not even scarce. However, the hype, and the registry disease, have made it one of the top few cards in the hobby. Go figure. In some respects, this is a hobby of sheep collecting cards.

[bigfanNY]

In 1989 or 1990 I was at a flea market near lambertville NJ. I found a group of T5 pinkerton cabinets. A few common Philadelphia players A complete Toledo Minor leauge team including Joe McCarthy I think the only card issued of him so Rare. And one C. Winger numbered 1613. A complete outlier. next highest number in set is in the 1100's So numbered 500 after next known T5. Only one ever seen I sent in picture to Beckett and had it cataloged. Value... very little compared to Rarity.

Last year I see a 1949 Sacramento team picture I look close and see it was issued by Sunbeam bread. It was the team giveaway that went along with the 1949 sunbeam postcards also of the Sacramento team. Sunbeam team cards have been in catalogs since the 70's but I had never seen a single one. I asked a number of west coast collectors they said as rare or rarer than bishop team cards. It is in REA now but I don't expect much. But it is as Rare as a card gets.
Jonathan

[KCRfan1]

That's a beauty Raymond.

[clydepepper]

Thanks Lou

There's been one on EBAY for a while.

The regular Play Ball PSA-9 is listed at $4K, but the paper version, which, I've been told, is significantly rarer, can't seem to be sold for a fourth of that.


https://www.ebay.com/itm/20-off-SMR-...UAAOSwldRaH2U6

I paid $1 ,500 for mine...guess I'll hold onto it for a while...and then some...



.

[kevlar7]

Love reading this thread. Thanks for all who have contributed.

I would love to hear thoughts on if rarity impacts cards differently than memorabilia.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by clydepepper

There is a feeling that comes from having a true 1-of-1 - knowing that no one else has exactly what you have - and that feeling is priceless. I know that there are a few members who own Alegehenys and that's the feeling I'm talking about.

I probably will never be able to purchase another one, but what I have is always 'emitting' that 'golden fleese' vibe.

Of course you can, the dealer you had originally purchased your Allegheny cards from had about two dozen 1904 Allegheny cards for sale in his case at the National in Cleveland this past August, and probably still has them. I was able to purchase one common from him for a reasonable price and had a great conversation with him about the set, but other than myself, he wasn't really getting a lot of interest or buyers for the others he had on display. As a bit of a type collector I just wanted to be able to say I owned one.

And you actually helped me to get that one at a reasonable price. I believe it was the weekend just before the National that you had put an Allegheny card up on Ebay for sale, and I used that price to negotiate with the dealer. He even said he remembered selling you several Allegheny cards, and pretty much confirmed to me that your Ebay sale was at a loss.

This sort of confirms what Leon was bringing up about these rare cards not getting as much interest (or value) because they are so rare. You would have expected this dealer to have sold out the ones he had at the National pretty quickly had there been a lot of interest in them. Word of mouth would have gotten around the National fairly fast if these were really desirable. I had only been that aware of them because of that recent Ebay sale just before the National, which caught my eye and piqued my interest. Still, they do not go cheaply in relation to most other cards from the early 1900's.

You can also compare these 1904 Allegheny cards to the 1921 Herpolsheimer cards, which are also all 1 of 1s, though the Herpolsheimers appear to go for quite a bit less. Possibly due to the fact they are more recent than the 1904 Allegheny cards and that most all of them have a written dollar amount on the backs in pencil, but still all 1 of 1s. If either of these issues were to trade a little more often, they may start to see a bump up in value. Otherwise, unless it is a type card collector looking for an example of that issue, or a specific player collector looking for that card of the player he collects, most mainstream collectors go right past these auctions/sales of such ultra-rare cards when they do come up.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by BobC

Of course you can, the dealer you had originally purchased your Allegheny cards from had about two dozen 1904 Allegheny cards for sale in his case at the National in Cleveland this past August, and probably still has them. I was able to purchase one common from him for a reasonable price and had a great conversation with him about the set, but other than myself, he wasn't really getting a lot of interest or buyers for the others he had on display. As a bit of a type collector I just wanted to be able to say I owned one.

And you actually helped me to get that one at a reasonable price. I believe it was the weekend just before the National that you had put an Allegheny card up on Ebay for sale, and I used that price to negotiate with the dealer. He even said he remembered selling you several Allegheny cards, and pretty much confirmed to me that your Ebay sale was at a loss.

This sort of confirms what Leon was bringing up about these rare cards not getting as much interest (or value) because they are so rare. You would have expected this dealer to have sold out the ones he had at the National pretty quickly had there been a lot of interest in them. Word of mouth would have gotten around the National fairly fast if these were really desirable. I had only been that aware of them because of that recent Ebay sale just before the National, which caught my eye and piqued my interest. Still, they do not go cheaply in relation to most other cards from the early 1900's.

You can also compare these 1904 Allegheny cards to the 1921 Herpolsheimer cards, which are also all 1 of 1s, though the Herpolsheimers appear to go for quite a bit less. Possibly due to the fact they are more recent than the 1904 Allegheny cards and that most all of them have a written dollar amount on the backs in pencil, but still all 1 of 1s. If either of these issues were to trade a little more often, they may start to see a bump up in value. Otherwise, unless it is a type card collector looking for an example of that issue, or a specific player collector looking for that card of the player he collects, most mainstream collectors go right past these auctions/sales of such ultra-rare cards when they do come up.

+1...I used to have the 21 herpolsheimer cobb...and the t207 red cross lowdy...and the m101-6 ruth(yankees)...all rare cards...all I sold before their time...except for lowdy of which I do not believe will ever be the right time!!!! A good example of a card too rare for its own good. Also recently inquired about the 53-55 howard photo willie mays...a rare...early willie mays card...of which there are 6 on the pop reports...very little info and interest.

[BobC]

And the desirability of the actual issue also plays a big part in the value of such ultra-rare cards. For example, Ty Cobb is easily one of the most recognizable names from the early 20th century amongst ballplayers. His T206 prices have been shooting up in recent years, with the recent find of the several Ty Cobb with Ty Cobb back cards possibly being the penultimate and most publicized find of Cobb cards in recent history. Obviously the value for these is tremendous, coupled with the interest and story of the find and the rarity involved.

However, if you look at Ty Cobb cards and the rarity of issues and tobacco brands, the S74-1 white version silks have Ty Cobb in the issue, same image as appears on his T205 card, and they have one ultra rare tobacco brand that Cobb appears with from Helmar tobacco. There are only two or three Helmar backed Cobb silks known to even exist, which is so much rarer than even Ty Cobb tobacco Cobb cards, yet a Helmar - Cobb silk will go for nowhere near what a Ty Cobb tobacco Cobb T206 would go for.

In this particular instance it is also probable that the silk gets a lower value due to the fact that PSA will not grade them, and thus you don't get the registry crowd interested in the set either.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

+1...I used to have the 21 herpolsheimer cobb...and the t207 red cross lowdy...and the m101-6 ruth(yankees)...all rare cards...all I sold before their time...except for lowdy of which I do not believe will ever be the right time!!!! A good example of a card too rare for its own good. Also recently inquired about the 53-55 howard photo willie mays...a rare...early willie mays card...of which there are 6 on the pop reports...very little info and interest.

I hear you Pete. I've got a '21 Herpolsheimer McGraw myself, and know there are other Net54 members with various other players from that set as well that have them sitting in their collections and are not looking to sell them any time soon. They are all 1 of 1s, but not that valuable as the set is impossible to complete and they rarely, if ever, come up for sale.

The other cards you mentioned are all amazing as well. As with everything else, the value is always going to be dependent on supply and demand. Even if a super rare card comes up for sale/auction, if there aren't at least two seriously interested parties going after it, chances are it won't go for what it may really be worth. And because some of these issues are so tough and rare, collectors aren't actively watching for them like they may be other things they more commonly collect. And thus it is even more possible that you don't get all the potentially interested bidders involved, and the item goes for less than it otherwise should/would.

[aljurgela]

Originally Posted by chipperhank44

Through experience I've found that anytime you find yourself having to explain how rare a card is (or even what the card is) to a potential buyer, you're in a bad position and your card is too rare for its own good.

Pretty much my entire collection! Here are some examples:

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

the registry disease

Great description! Thanks for the chuckle.

Since this thread originated, marketing has been ever more the driver of prices on cards with good sized populations. Look at the manipulation/bubble we had on so many postwar rookie cards or the way the 1952 Mantle has gone into the stratosphere. Hell, PWCC is one big marketing engine, with its certifications of graded cards.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by aljurgela

Pretty much my entire collection! Here are some examples:

Gorgeous cards that don't really get their just dues relative to how rare they really are. Thanks for showing...
Some of us just like the fact we have some cool cards that you can't go buy every day...regardless of the size of your bank account .

[tbob]

How about the orange background E94s? Everyone knows about the orange background E98s but those E94s found with orange backgrounds (not all have been verified to exist) are all 1-1.
Because the E94 set is a difficult one any way, the fact the orange color variations exist as "single known populations of 1 each" makes them incredibly rare and only advanced collectors of E94s know or ever talk about their existence.

[Leon]

I think I recognize one of those. Not too long ago a major auction house was selling an orange and didn't point it out until I let them know of their scarcity. They are under the radar of most collectors.

Originally Posted by tbob

How about the orange background E94s? Everyone knows about the orange background E98s but those E94s found with orange backgrounds (not all have been verified to exist) are all 1-1.
Because the E94 set is a difficult one any way, the fact the orange color variations exist as "single known populations of 1 each" makes them incredibly rare and only advanced collectors of E94s know or ever talk about their existence.

[gabrinus]

These are what I need to go after when I start collecting again...that way I won't have to spend any money because I won't be able to find any...Jerry

[DixieBaseball]

Originally Posted by Leon

As a collector of scarce cards I often wonder if some cards/series are too rare for their own good? They seldom get play time on the board or in discussions.

The answer to Leon's question is yes and no. Too rare for own good needs to be defined further. If you are talking about value, I say no or not necessarily. If you say too rare for their own good as a collectible, then possibly b/c as many have mentioned, there is no buzz, it's not talked about, and there may be little to no interest.

I suppose what makes T206 so great is the perfect storm of all the elements needed to make this set a truly great collectible, but again - define good. If we are talking about value, then the answer is no/not necessarily, but if we are talking about as a collectible in the hobby, then perhaps.

My 2 cents...

Here is a set that is dangerously close to Too rare for their own good, but may make the cut as the set is big enough, and they are not impossible, and they are most likely a T206 with Thin paper.

[Aaron Seefeldt]

And then we have some cards that are rare from sets in high demand so they command a tremendous premium. For instance, the Tango Eggs in REA's recent auction. Did you see the prices for the Felsch ($6K), Evers ($11,400), Morgan ($4500), & Crawford ($5,100)? I would have love to get one but a common player for $4500?

I like this card, most likely a 1 of 1 and the price was tiny compared to those Tangos...