T206 cards poised for largest 2 yr. percentage price increase.

Peter_Spaeth · #1 08-19-2018, 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

I appreciate you making that distinction, and I like the phrase �talking your book.� I�ve always thought about it as �pumping a card.� Maybe I�m just skeptical, but it feels like there are many examples of dudes going to great lengths to bring exposure to a card �organically� when, coincidentally, one happens to be up for auction. I don�t think this thread is an example of that at all, but there are others on the main board, I believe.

Also, I agree with this list, but I might replace Nap with Cy portrait.

Better than trashing a card you are secretly hoping to win. The old Hal Lewis playbook.

SetBuilder · #2 08-20-2018, 09:27 PM

I would be very cautious to expect further significant price increases. The global economy has serious cracks in its foundation and US debt levels have never been higher. We're also overdue for a recession. I fear it's going to be very ugly.

orly57 · #3 08-20-2018, 09:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SetBuilder

I would be very cautious to expect further significant price increases. The global economy has serious cracks in its foundation and US debt levels have never been higher. We're also overdue for a recession. I fear it's going to be very ugly.

So 1914 Cracker Jacks then?

SetBuilder · #4 08-20-2018, 09:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by orly57

So 1914 Cracker Jacks then?

Time.

If you are new to the hobby and bought cards as speculative vehicles, you may be in for a lot of short term pain should the economy go south.

If you plan on holding the cards for 10+ years, you'll probably be fine.

CW · #5 08-21-2018, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by orly57

So 1914 Cracker Jacks then?

Hilarious comment considering that issue has probably fluctuated the most (both up and down) during the 18 years I've been collecting graded cards.

Peter_Spaeth · #6 08-20-2018, 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SetBuilder

I would be very cautious to expect further significant price increases. The global economy has serious cracks in its foundation and US debt levels have never been higher. We're also overdue for a recession. I fear it's going to be very ugly.

I have gotten emails or seen ads nearly every day for the past ten years saying the same thing from some market guru or other. Always the same message about the debt and the Fed and the dollar; always the same predictions of massive drops in stock prices, and so on and so forth. And always backed up by analysis purporting to show it's just around the corner, or already started. Got them at Dow 10,000, and 12,000, and 15,000, and 20,000, etc. etc. They always want to sell you some guide to making money in a crash. Carry on.

Here's one of my faves, Porter Stansberry, predicting 2018 will be the beginning of the end.
http://thecrux.com/a-huge-rally-and-...gger-collapse/

He doesn't tell you he's had the same message since 2009 lol. You would have done real well listening to his crap.

SetBuilder · #7 08-20-2018, 09:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I have gotten emails or seen ads nearly every day for the past ten years saying the same thing from some market guru or other. Always the same message about the debt and the dollar; always the same predictions of massive drops in stock prices, and so on and so forth. And always backed up by analysis purporting to show it's just around the corner, or already started. Got them at Dow 10,000, and 12,000, and 15,000, and 20,000, etc. etc. They always want to sell you some guide to making money in a crash. Carry on.

Here's one of my faves, Porter Stansberry, predicting 2018 will be the beginning of the end.
http://thecrux.com/a-huge-rally-and-...gger-collapse/

He doesn't tell you he's had the same message since 2009 lol. You would have done real well listening to his crap.

No one wants to spoil a good party. Every asset I can think of has gone up at least 5-fold since 2010. I remember just a couple of years ago buying Apple shares at $90, and now it's at $215. Over a trillion dollar market cap already. Facebook from $50 a share to over $180 in less than 3 years. Bitcoin. Real Estate. Coins. Cards. Everything.

Some wisdom and a little knowledge of history can be very sobering at times.

Peter_Spaeth · #8 08-20-2018, 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SetBuilder

No one wants to spoil a good party. Every asset I can think of has gone up at least 5-fold since 2010. I remember just a couple of years ago buying Apple shares at $90, and now it's at $215. Over a trillion dollar market cap already. Facebook from $50 a share to over $180 in less than 3 years. Bitcoin. Real Estate. Coins. Cards. Everything.

Some wisdom and a little knowledge of history can be very sobering at times.

Bitcoin has come partway back to earth. You're right, but you could have put together a sky is falling scenario in 2010 too. Or any year after that. How many people thought it was insane when AMZN hit 500? How many people were convinced that the market's recovery following early 2009 was just a dead cat bounce? How many people thought Bitcoin made no sense at 1000?

SetBuilder · #9 08-20-2018, 10:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Bitcoin has come partway back to earth. You're right, but you could have put together a sky is falling scenario in 2010 too. How many people thought it was insane when AMZN hit 500?

The US is $22 Trillion in debt and running $1T deficits at the tail end of one of the longest economic expansions on record. Cost to service that debt is already $500B+ a year, almost bigger than Medicare and the military. Consumers have more debt today than they did in 2006-7 before the collapse. A lot of it is unsecured debt for things like subprime autos and discretionary items.

Everyone binged on debt while rates were near zero.

Just keep that in mind.

Peter_Spaeth · #10 08-20-2018, 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SetBuilder

The US is $22 Trillion in debt and running $1T deficits at the tail end of one of the longest economic expansions on record. Cost to service that debt is already $500B+ a year, almost bigger than Medicare and the military. Consumers have more debt today than they did in 2006-7 before the collapse. A lot of it is unsecured debt for things like subprime autos and discretionary items.

Everyone binged on debt while rates were near zero.

Just keep that in mind.

I read the gloom and doom folks all the time. They always sound persuasive. I'm just saying people who listened to them have missed out on unbelievable growth. I can't believe Stansberry and his ilk have a single paying client left with his track record.

ruth_rookie · #11 08-20-2018, 10:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SetBuilder

Consumers have more debt today than they did in 2006-7 before the collapse. Everyone binged on debt while rates were near zero.

I know I did... on baseball cards!!!

Sean · #12 08-20-2018, 11:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I have gotten emails or seen ads nearly every day for the past ten years saying the same thing from some market guru or other. Always the same message about the debt and the Fed and the dollar; always the same predictions of massive drops in stock prices, and so on and so forth. And always backed up by analysis purporting to show it's just around the corner, or already started. Got them at Dow 10,000, and 12,000, and 15,000, and 20,000, etc. etc. They always want to sell you some guide to making money in a crash. Carry on.

Here's one of my faves, Porter Stansberry, predicting 2018 will be the beginning of the end.
http://thecrux.com/a-huge-rally-and-...gger-collapse/

He doesn't tell you he's had the same message since 2009 lol. You would have done real well listening to his crap.

I don't know, Peter. I've heard that he's successfully predicted 12 of the last 3 recessions.

BLongley · #13 08-21-2018, 06:34 AM

When everything is great and when retail investors want buy stocks without any worry is when the bull market is near the end. This entire bull market has been climbing the "wall of worry"... "going to retest the March 09 lows", the US Debt Downgrade, the Greek debt crisis, then euro contagion, the flash crash, oil crash and then concerns of recession, etc...etc... bottom line the market has moved higher throughout history.

Since 1926 there have been 8 Bear markets with an avg duration of 1.4 years with a cumulative loss of 41%.

Since 1926 there have been 9 bull markets with an avg duration over 9 years and with a cumulative return of 476%.

It seems it's paid off to be more optimistic in the growth of US industry.

T206Collector · #14 08-21-2018, 06:59 AM

Can’t wait to see what the signed Cobb (don’t own), signed Speaker (don’t own), and signed Baker (own) will fetch in the upcoming REA.

Just talking my book!

packs · #15 08-21-2018, 08:39 AM

None of the cards will appreciate. In 2 years there will be a huge downturn and they will go back to being nickel stocks. Sell them to me for 10 cents on the dollar while you can.

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