Tuesday nite TRIVIA ?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

I like a good discussion, so don't think I'm giving you a hard time.

250 hits has only been done 7 times, and 7 of the top 20 all time hit season totals have occurred since 1977. That's pretty much a perfect ratio of 1/3 of the top seasons in 1/3 of modern ball history.

As for Brett, that's great, but it's really anecdotal. Yes technically if he reduced his AB total with a couple handfuls of walks he would've hit .400 it doesn't mean you can employ walks as a strategy to hit .400. Also often times those who excel at something are among the worst at explaining it. It's why guys like Ted Williams are pretty much failures as a managers while guy like Whitey Herzog, Sparky Anderson and Tommy Lasorda are successful. Of course there are exceptions, but generally peaking being a savant doesn't actually mean you're qualified to explain what you do. (And yes I know William's The Science of Hitting is considered a seminal work to this day, but Brett was a disciple of Charlie Lau and Walt Hriniak who couldn't collectively hit their way out of a paper bag.)

I don't think Brett or Ted was suggesting he employ walks as a strategy. As I read it, he was suggesting that if he had been more judicious and walked a few more times instead of making an out on a bad pitch, he would have had a better BA.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I don't think Brett or Ted was suggesting he employ walks as a strategy. As I read it, he was suggesting that if he had been more judicious and walked a few more times instead of making an out on a bad pitch, he would have had a better BA.

Your initial point is interesting. I'd like to see what the Elias Sports bureau could find on it. I bet he didn't make very many outs on potential ball 4's. He did walk at a decent rate and if he's swinging at ball four I'm guessing that pretty often it was his pitch and he hit it well. Even discounting that he only swung at ball 4 if it was a great pitch for him, a dozen such instances where he didn't get a hit, statistically would imply that there were about 20 such instances in total. I don't know that I believe he swung at 20 potential ball 4's in 515 plate appearances.

Also would like to point out he only struck out 22 times the year in question which supports my argument. A low K total doesn't mean you have a high average but if you have a high average in all likelihood your K total is pretty low.

[Peter_Spaeth]

You don't think that once every 8 games he swung at ball 4? I don't have any numbers but it sounds quite plausible to me, even the best hitters get fooled frequently.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

first he only played 118 games that year if I remember correctly so that takes it to once every 6 games. Then how often did he see a pitch on a three ball count? He walked 58 times (and since I had to look that up I checked he played 117 games that year) how many more 3 ball counts above those 58 do you think he saw in 515 plate appearances? Then how many of those WOULD have been ball four that he swung at? I would posit that with three balls the next pitch is probably a strike more often than other counts which lowers the possible number even more. I honestly don't know, but I meant it about Elias. This is the kind of statistic they excel at. But I still think it'll probably be, to most, a surprisingly small number.

515 PA's
- 58 Walks
_________
457 PA's

How many reached Ball 3?

Statistically speaking a 3 ball count is significantly less common. First of all the at bat has to last at LEAST 3 pitches, and then you need three balls. Plus I don't know how often he would swing away at 3 - 0, so that may impact one of the possible 3 ball counts. But if you throw out logic and just look at statistics there are 12 different possible counts only 3 of which are 3 ball counts, or 25%.

That would indicate he had 114 3 ball counts that didn't result in walks. I gotta imagine it was actually a LOT less than that.

Interesting thought exercise though. Fun stuff.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

first he only played 118 games that year if I remember correctly so that takes it to once every 6 games. Then how often did he see a pitch on a three ball count? He walked 58 times (and since I had to look that up I checked he played 117 games that year) how many more 3 ball counts above those 58 do you think he saw in 515 plate appearances? Then how many of those WOULD have been ball four that he swung at? I would posit that with three balls the next pitch is probably a strike more often than other counts which lowers the possible number even more. I honestly don't know, but I meant it about Elias. This is the kind of statistic they excel at. But I still think it'll probably be, to most, a surprisingly small number.

515 PA's
- 58 Walks
_________
457 PA's

How many reached Ball 3?

Statistically speaking a 3 ball count is significantly less common. First of all the at bat has to last at LEAST 3 pitches, and then you need three balls. Plus I don't know how often he would swing away at 3 - 0, so that may impact one of the possible 3 ball counts. But if you throw out logic and just look at statistics there are 12 different possible counts only 3 of which are 3 ball counts, or 25%.

That would indicate he had 114 3 ball counts that didn't result in walks. I gotta imagine it was actually a LOT less than that.

Interesting thought exercise though. Fun stuff.

Seems to me every single batter these days goes to 3-2 plus 5 foul balls. Just kidding, but not really.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Remember even though there is supposedly a huge emphasis on working counts now-a-days walk rates are essentially unchanged, so I don't know if batters are seeing significantly more pitches.

I also realized that in my example above the three ball count PA's of 114, shouldn't be the final number. A three ball count where the next pitch (or pitches) are strikes wouldn't count. That should at LEAST cut the PA's in half, probably moreso due to the need to throw strikes in a 3 ball count. But even without taking that into account we're down to 57 PA's. Again this is skewing everything against my thesis.