State of the Post War Market

[jchcollins]

I have the theoretical knowledge to make decisions on cards as "an investment", but not the discipline. Sometimes I know which cards I shouldn't buy, but I want them now, dammit. Just as "buy low, sell high" is also a smart approach with cards, I seemingly don't have the patience for that either. Whenever I even need to move cards just to pay for something new I just couldn't resist, I seem to have a lousy track record at selling at the high end of the market.

I have 2 daughters, one who is into baseball right now and the other not so much. My cards (whatever is left, anyway) will go to them and they can treasure them as I would or dispose of them as they please as circumstances dictate...

[JollyElm]

I just want to quickly jump in here and add my thoughts about looking at a specific situation from a pseudo-investment perspective.

Whenever the 15% off ebay coupons appear, it becomes a two-pronged approach for me. I want to purchase cards that I want/need/would love to have, but I also pay big-time attention to the resale value of said cards.

With that second point in mind, I start searching through pretty expensive graded cards (hopefully, if I can afford it, landing right at $666.67 in order to get the maximum $100 'discount'), and start narrowing it down from there. The reason I look at high priced cards (I know that term has a different meaning for everyone), is because you are much more likely to do well on your return on investment when the day comes for you to sell them. (Meaning, for the most part, people selling more expensive cards need to keep them within sight of what people expect to pay to stand any chance of selling them. Not so the case with lower valued cards.) For instance, say a card regularly/always sells for $500 and you are able through the discount to get one for $425. If you immediately turn around and let someone have it for the usual 5 bills, you've made a quick profit. But say you want to get some lower cost, high grade cards that are listed for more than they are 'worth' (read as what past sales have gone for) at $100 apiece. The 15% discount does nothing for you, because the cards are already overpriced by way more than 15%. You'll be starting out already in the hole.

(No investment strategies guides were harmed in creating this post.)

[Volod]

When he was four years old, my son managed to defeat the lock on the cabinet that held my card collection. Fortunately, he was only able to fully "examine" a few dozen cards before the baby-sitter collared him. I've been thinking of including those cards in his inheritance, but not sure if he would appreciate the mordant humor, even though they could likely bring a few hundred bucks despite the creases and tears. I'm sure he'd prefer valuable stocks, if I had any to leave.

[glynparson]

It was obviously artificial i am still not sure why some refuse to admit that. It doesn't take a genius to figure it out. There were some deep pockets attempting some market manipulation. I think it did bump the market up though over where it was pre manipulation. not by a lot but definitely did create some interest. Key low pop high grade rookies are still very expensive not sure the true top tier have fallen much but the more available even in better grade stuff is clearly softer without the extra cash those buyers were pumping in to the market.

[Peter_Spaeth]

If the market's so soft why does it feel like I can't buy anything unless I am willing to overpay?

[Johnny630]

Peter,

I believe it’s because people either bought in 2016 or they don’t really want to sell the card. The economy is good. It’s also hard for some people to take a loss on a deal/card. Some people have it in their heads that whenever or whatever they buy should be worth more when they sell it. I have a bad feeling some sellers are going to have ridiculously high prices on their post war graded material. We shall see.

[LeftHandedDane]

Card collecting is a hobby for me, too - not an investment. That said, I am careful when I buy - I have a goal to be able to at least recoup a large percentage of what I put into it when the day comes to liquidate. That makes it a more cost effective hobby than, say, golf or travel or attending sporting events. At least thats what I keep telling the missus!

[Neal]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If the market's so soft why does it feel like I can't buy anything unless I am willing to overpay?

you're just cheap and delusional LOL - sometimes the most efficient means of travel is by snowmobile

[Exhibitman]

Interesting perspective, Mike. There are definitely segments of the hobby that are hotter from time to time. As I noted in my past post, I think rare cards have gone way up. The ones I pay attention to (mostly Exhibits) have tripled or more in the last several years. Which is why I am filling in holes in my collection in the coldest areas of the hobby. The collector's version of hit 'em where they ain't.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Neal

you're just cheap and delusional LOL - sometimes the most efficient means of travel is by snowmobile

Never. Not at those prices.