State of the Post War Market

[darkhorse9]

I never looked at my collection as an investment for me. I consider it a gift for my son.

My collection has been assembled for my enjoyment. When I die that enjoyment goes with me. I got my value out of it. My son has explicit directions to sell my collection for as much as he can and then spend that money on something he would enjoy.

Whatever money my son gets from it will have no relevance to what I paid for it. It's all free money for him to enjoy.

I see that as a huge win/win for my collection.

[ALR-bishop]

Don't care about investment angle. Still a hobby for me

[toppcat]

Originally Posted by ALR-bishop

Don't care about investment angle. Still a hobby for me

High five!

[vintagebaseballcardguy]

Originally Posted by ALR-bishop

Don't care about investment angle. Still a hobby for me

Same here.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

[jchcollins]

I have the theoretical knowledge to make decisions on cards as "an investment", but not the discipline. Sometimes I know which cards I shouldn't buy, but I want them now, dammit. Just as "buy low, sell high" is also a smart approach with cards, I seemingly don't have the patience for that either. Whenever I even need to move cards just to pay for something new I just couldn't resist, I seem to have a lousy track record at selling at the high end of the market.

I have 2 daughters, one who is into baseball right now and the other not so much. My cards (whatever is left, anyway) will go to them and they can treasure them as I would or dispose of them as they please as circumstances dictate...

[JollyElm]

I just want to quickly jump in here and add my thoughts about looking at a specific situation from a pseudo-investment perspective.

Whenever the 15% off ebay coupons appear, it becomes a two-pronged approach for me. I want to purchase cards that I want/need/would love to have, but I also pay big-time attention to the resale value of said cards.

With that second point in mind, I start searching through pretty expensive graded cards (hopefully, if I can afford it, landing right at $666.67 in order to get the maximum $100 'discount'), and start narrowing it down from there. The reason I look at high priced cards (I know that term has a different meaning for everyone), is because you are much more likely to do well on your return on investment when the day comes for you to sell them. (Meaning, for the most part, people selling more expensive cards need to keep them within sight of what people expect to pay to stand any chance of selling them. Not so the case with lower valued cards.) For instance, say a card regularly/always sells for $500 and you are able through the discount to get one for $425. If you immediately turn around and let someone have it for the usual 5 bills, you've made a quick profit. But say you want to get some lower cost, high grade cards that are listed for more than they are 'worth' (read as what past sales have gone for) at $100 apiece. The 15% discount does nothing for you, because the cards are already overpriced by way more than 15%. You'll be starting out already in the hole.

(No investment strategies guides were harmed in creating this post.)

[Volod]

When he was four years old, my son managed to defeat the lock on the cabinet that held my card collection. Fortunately, he was only able to fully "examine" a few dozen cards before the baby-sitter collared him. I've been thinking of including those cards in his inheritance, but not sure if he would appreciate the mordant humor, even though they could likely bring a few hundred bucks despite the creases and tears. I'm sure he'd prefer valuable stocks, if I had any to leave.

[glynparson]

It was obviously artificial i am still not sure why some refuse to admit that. It doesn't take a genius to figure it out. There were some deep pockets attempting some market manipulation. I think it did bump the market up though over where it was pre manipulation. not by a lot but definitely did create some interest. Key low pop high grade rookies are still very expensive not sure the true top tier have fallen much but the more available even in better grade stuff is clearly softer without the extra cash those buyers were pumping in to the market.

[Marchillo]

Originally Posted by darkhorse9

I never looked at my collection as an investment for me. I consider it a gift for my son.

My collection has been assembled for my enjoyment. When I die that enjoyment goes with me. I got my value out of it. My son has explicit directions to sell my collection for as much as he can and then spend that money on something he would enjoy.

Whatever money my son gets from it will have no relevance to what I paid for it. It's all free money for him to enjoy.

I see that as a huge win/win for my collection.

This is a fantastic way of thinking. My son is only 2 and he gets my whole collection when I’m gone. I’m holding out hope it’s something he enjoys and we can do it together. But if not he can do whatever he wants with it when I’m gone. If he’s into it, he’ll probably get most of it while I’m still here.

[David W]

With the stock market returning almost 20% last year why would you invest in cards?

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by David W

With the stock market returning almost 20% last year why would you invest in cards?

Agree +1

[Nunzio11]

Originally Posted by darkhorse9

I never looked at my collection as an investment for me. I consider it a gift for my son.

My collection has been assembled for my enjoyment. When I die that enjoyment goes with me. I got my value out of it. My son has explicit directions to sell my collection for as much as he can and then spend that money on something he would enjoy.

Whatever money my son gets from it will have no relevance to what I paid for it. It's all free money for him to enjoy.

I see that as a huge win/win for my collection.

I’m looking at it the same way. I do hope I’m making decisions now that will appreciate or at least still hold some value many years from now.

Just to add another wrinkle and make it more interesting I tell my family and friends not to worry about what’s in those boxes in the closet. If my health ever starts to fail everything will be hidden and everyone will get a list of clues and a map. Whoever finds it gets to keep it.

[AGuinness]

Originally Posted by David W

With the stock market returning almost 20% last year why would you invest in cards?

Playing a bit of Devil's Advocate here, but one can't invest in last year's stock market today, right? So if somebody with an educated opinion prefers investing in cards over the market today, it's certainly possible that it's the better choice.

[Exhibitman]

Everyone's assessment of how the card market is doing depends on your measuring points and your measurement choices.

On the one hand, I am picking up really nice raw 1960s-1970s and I am replacing my PSA 8-9 cards as quickly as I can with those raw picks because there is a ton of inventory. 4SC has opened a ton of raw stuff and has simultaneously bloated the market for raw (via its liquidator NESC) and collapsed the market for PSA cards in the 6-8 range from that era. I've all but stopped my PSA submissions because I literally lose money whenever I send in a card from that era unless it scores a 9 or 10, or is one of a handful of select rookies: 4SC offers them up slabbed at less than my peon-level grading cost. It is akin to a Wal-Mart opening in a small town and destroying the mom and pop stores. I'm dumping my PSA graded cards on eBay because I can replace them with raw cards in just as nice shape for a fraction of the price. I can see where the market would look really, really bad if your inventory was postwar mainstream 6-8 PSA cards, especially if you self-submitted. The sunk costs of slabbing alone would kill you.

On the other hand (my father once said he'd love to see a one-handed lawyer), I see a great opportunity for collectors who want to move into areas where there is a glut/depressed market. I've got a giant want list for the National but it is almost all cards that I expect to shop for and find very cheaply. I plan to shlep* home a big box of additions to my PC, more cards than ever before, with no plastic cases in sight.

*For the Yiddish-challenged, "to carry a burden"

[David W]

Originally Posted by AGuinness

Playing a bit of Devil's Advocate here, but one can't invest in last year's stock market today, right? So if somebody with an educated opinion prefers investing in cards over the market today, it's certainly possible that it's the better choice.

You may be correct. But if you are investing in high end graded cards of top players, you do not know how many high end cards are still out there waiting to be graded.

So you do not know the supply side of the equation, nor necessarily even the demand side.

But people have and will make money speculating on baseball cards.

[AGuinness]

Originally Posted by David W

You may be correct. But if you are investing in high end graded cards of top players, you do not know how many high end cards are still out there waiting to be graded.

So you do not know the supply side of the equation, nor necessarily even the demand side.

But people have and will make money speculating on baseball cards.

Very true, and in particular the population of ungraded cards likely increases the more modern the card is, creating more risk for modern and recent star cards.

But continuing as a Devil's Advocate, I think the unknowns and speculation in the stock market are also very prevalent. Speculation has been cited as at least one of the reasons behind each of the major stock market crashes. And while market cap and other statistics on stocks are widely available to shareholders, there are many examples of companies deceiving the public and their shareholders by using loopholes and accounting tricks ("cooking the books") to hide debt, etc. (such as Enron). I think there's likely a certain amount of unknown risk in EVERY investment.

[jchcollins]

I'm not experienced enough to comment on the true high-end of the market, or what real rarities or highly desired pre-war sells for, or anything like that. But, in the wheelhouse of what I do collect and am familiar with (1950-70's mid-grade stars - whether graded or not) I think on the whole the cards remain very affordable and also don't seem to lose a ton of value. I think a PSA 5 '63 Topps Willie Mays (to use an example from my collection) if you do the math and see what a comparable (albeit before grading) version of that same card sold for in say 1989 - I think you would find things haven't changed all that much.

Again, this obviously doesn't speak to the rather large changes in the high end of the vintage market that have happened since 1989 - but it works for me.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by AGuinness

Very true, and in particular the population of ungraded cards likely increases the more modern the card is, creating more risk for modern and recent star cards.

I would actually doubt that hypothesis.

The production numbers are lower and the collecting base are adult due to the immense cost of anything other than base sets. It is also a collecting group that has fully embraced TPGs.

Anyone that is sitting on a childhood collection or has not been avid in collecting in the past 20 years is unlikely to have used a TPG and thus the cards are unaccounted for. As the boomers and older pass on, their children may look to move those inheritances and will be adding to the pop numbers for sale.

The first thing modern collectors do is sleeve cards from the pack and ship off anything to the TPGs.

[ruth_rookie]

Originally Posted by AGuinness

Playing a bit of Devil's Advocate here, but one can't invest in last year's stock market today, right? So if somebody with an educated opinion prefers investing in cards over the market today, it's certainly possible that it's the better choice.

I’m not afraid to say that I am definitely one of those who prefers buying vintage sports memorabilia (particularly cards) over the stock market, especially after weeks like this where equities got absolutely slammed. Besides, owning Apple, Amazon, Exxon Mobil, nor Google could ever bring even a remote taste of the joy I get while holding my ‘33 Goudey Ruths, gazing at them in amazement, wondering about the provenance and how in the world they survived bicycle spokes, several wars, and an overzealous mom who threw away anything that wasn’t tied down or hidden between my mattresses (Playboys included!!). While I do believe diversification is key, baseball cards are by far my favorite “investment”.

[Leon]

The market got killed this week. Diversification and long term are key points to take away. Personally, I just do what Buffet says (in the market) with quite a few less 0s at the end of my investments. We have Apple and Vanguard 500 Index, are long term and doing just fine. (knock on wood). And cards can absolutely be a part of anyone's investment and be ok. Cards are more fun than stocks that is for sure.

Originally Posted by ruth_rookie

I’m not afraid to say that I am definitely one of those who prefers buying vintage sports memorabilia (particularly cards) over the stock market, especially after weeks like this where equities got absolutely slammed. Besides, owning Apple, Amazon, Exxon Mobil, nor Google could ever bring even a remote taste of the joy I get while holding my ‘33 Goudey Ruths, gazing at them in amazement, wondering about the provenance and how in the world they survived bicycle spokes, several wars, and an overzealous mom who threw away anything that wasn’t tied down or hidden between my mattresses (Playboys included!!). While I do believe diversification is key, baseball cards are by far my favorite “investment”.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by David W

With the stock market returning almost 20% last year why would you invest in cards?

And you think that trend is going to continue?