Depressing

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

The mania surrounding the Otani autographs in the new Topps Heritage set is instructive. A ton of mania out of the box to get these cards and get on eBay. People who were asking $75,000 a month ago. If someone paid that they are a sorry sorry guy, because they are now a few thousand last time I checked. This is just people buying a lottery ticket.
Manufactured scarcity. Signing in different ink colors and then trying to say a certain color is more valuable. Cmon. That’s nuts.

I must say I agree with much of this. I do not think you can compare a rare backed tobacco or Carmel card that was produced in small numbers because of supply and demand in that era to manufactured errors and rarities of the modern day. Drum, uzit, kotton, virginia extra...smaller niche brands likley ordered and distributed many fewer cards in the first place place...therefore fewer survive and they are rare. Brown old mills, lennox, red crofts candy... perhaps these occurred as sample runs with whatever ink was available who knows. Today they are rare and desirable.

Compare this to a bunch of executives sitting in a board meeting deciding they are going to “create” this variation or that variation. Smart yes! But in my opinion comparing these to vintage is apples to oranges.

I have not collected modern since 1991 and have made no effort to follow... there are just too many issues...and way too many cards that will remain in new condition.

What can I say the hobby has changed and I have not changed with it. Hopefully these manufactured rarities will maintain their desirability more than their beanie baby counterpart over time.

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

I must say I agree with much of this. I do not think you can compare a rare backed tobacco or Carmel card that was produced in small numbers because of supply and demand in that era to manufactured errors and rarities of the modern day. Drum, uzit, kotton, virginia extra...smaller niche brands likley ordered and distributed many fewer cards in the first place place...therefore fewer survive and they are rare. Brown old mills, lennox, red crofts candy... perhaps these occurred as sample runs with whatever ink was available who knows. Today they are rare and desirable.

Compare this to a bunch of executives sitting in a board meeting deciding they are going to “create” this variation or that variation. Smart yes! But in my opinion comparing these to vintage is apples to oranges.

I have not collected modern since 1991 and have made no effort to follow... there are just too many issues...and way too many cards that will remain in new condition.

What can I say the hobby has changed and I have not changed with it. Hopefully these manufactured rarities will maintain their desirability more than their beanie baby counterpart over time.

From the standpoint of manufacturing and intent at inception, that is correct. Yet one could compare an ink color difference to a back difference in terms of how one could find those differences between the cards rather insignificant, relative to the prices.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by MattyC

From the standpoint of manufacturing and intent at inception, that is correct. Yet one could compare an ink color difference to a back difference in terms of how one could find those differences between the cards rather insignificant, relative to the prices.

I’ll give u that.😋

[orly57]

Originally Posted by MattyC

In all fairness the PreWar "rookie" space is not as cut and dry as you make it seem, relative to modern. Look at the debate that swirls around Ty Cobb or Babe Ruth and what their "rookie" card is. When I first ventured into PreWar I found it disorganized, relative to what I saw as the direct, clear-cut Post War space. I took the time to wade in and learn, from reading and fellow collectors, and was soon able to select cards I wanted. I am sure anyone could do the same for modern, if they so choose. I have far too much fun watching baseball and rooting for certain players to abstain from collecting the cards of theirs which I find awesome, just because they may not achieve immortal status. Their status is already secured with me, based on the fun I have in the present watching, rooting, and collecting. That is why, when I look at my cards, I smile at the Gooden, Strawberry, Mattingly, and Bo Jacksons the same way I smile at the Ruths and Cobbs.

But Matty, would you be smiling at Gooden and Strawberry and Mattingly if you had dropped 15k on them during their heyday when they were looking like sure-fire hall of famers? You can smile at the Bo Jackson that you saved up your allowance to buy for a whopping $20. It's a nice memory. But that isn't the case today.

[Gradedcardman]

Originally Posted by orly57

Be glad. We all started off collecting new cards. It's a natural progression which only insures the future of our hobby.

Would not of been able to say it better !!

[Big Ben]

Originally Posted by MattyC

My expectation, when I pay thousands for a new card, is that I will enjoy my new card.

That expectation is met each and every time.

It's the same expectation I have when I buy a card from 1914, 1952, or 1975.

Ok. I get that. I use that rational when I purchase a pre World War II card. I fully understand the price fluctuations that can happen in the hobby. But if you paid let’s say $1,000 for a newer card and the value drops precipitously in the following years after the purchase, will you be enthusiastic about spending that type of money on a newer card in the future? Personally I would not.

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by orly57

But Matty, would you be smiling at Gooden and Strawberry and Mattingly if you had dropped 15k on them during their heyday when they were looking like sure-fire hall of famers? You can smile at the Bo Jackson that you saved up your allowance to buy for a whopping $20. It's a nice memory. But that isn't the case today.

I will be in that exact 15k analogy/boat with my Aaron Judge collection. Will definitely smile at the cards no matter what they are worth down the line. I could sell them at a profit today, but that is not why I collect them. With all baseball cards, I go in thinking of them as sheer expenditures/luxury goods bought for pleasure. If I want to swap some out to buy others down the line and can sell some for profit or breakeven or anything at all, sure that is always nice and optimum, but never the expectation or desire going in. Basically, I walk into Vegas expecting to lose the whole wad.

Originally Posted by Big Ben

Ok. I get that. I use that rational when I purchase a pre World War II card. I fully understand the price fluctuations that can happen in the hobby. But if you paid let’s say $1,000 for a newer card and the value drops precipitously in the following years after the purchase, will you be enthusiastic about spending that type of money on a newer card in the future? Personally I would not.

If I am enthusiastic about the player, want him represented in my collection, want the specific card, and can afford the pricetag, I would be fine pulling the trigger again if another modern card I bought lost its value.

There are certainly prospectors and flippers who are into modern solely for a sort of "day trading," if you will. They time their buying and selling with the ebb and flow of achievement/hype/excitement/expectations around a player. In contrast I just collect modern guys I like. It does strike me as odd, the way a prospect's toughest cards will sometimes be priced as if he has already achieved Ruthian status in MLB. But if a seller can get that price, then more power to him. I have seen prices on modern cards for unproven players that dwarf the price of a nice Mantle or other elite HOFer. I don't agree with it, personally, but not my place to say other than in the holstering of my wallet. But I holster it for some PreWar or PostWar cards that are considered amazing and valuable. Just personal preference, end of day.

[Snapolit1]

There was certainly a lot of hi-jinks and manipulation in the old days. Short prints and the like. But today it's like the only hook to generate sales are gimmicks, lottery tickets. It's like Willie Wonka and the golden ticket.

By the way, I love the new Topps Heritage cards. Bought two boxes and had a blast opening them.

[pawpawdiv9]

I might grab 1-2 boxes at Xmas time of the shiny new stuff. Heck, I don't even know who is hot or not most times, just the fun of ripping something I guess.
That's why I join in at secret santa time, as its more of a surprise than anything.
A few yrs ago I opened one from SS, and had a retro 1957 RC Bart Starr red ink auto
It then makes me ponder IF there be a retro CJ, T206 , 48/9 Leaf or 33 Goudey cards?? or has it been done.

[glynparson]

I have been collecting since 1979 when I was 7 years old. I have been hearing this same story about how all the money is the new guys yet the older cards keep going up and the newer stuff mostly goes down with some obvious exceptions. I’ll continue to bet on older higher quality material. I’ve heard this song and dance countless times the last 39 years.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by glynparson

I have been collecting since 1979 when I was 7 years old. I have been hearing this same story about how all the money is the new guys yet the older cards keep going up and the newer stuff mostly goes down with some obvious exceptions. I’ll continue to bet on older higher quality material. I’ve heard this song and dance countless times the last 39 years.

What makes most collectibles rare is the fact that while they were around few if any people ever thought about collecting them for the long term. When the Gehrig rookie Exhibits came out in 1925, doubt any kid was walking around thinking "I want to preserve one of these because it will be worth a lot of money someday." Compare that with what's going on with Otani or Trout cards. People are hoarding them.

[orly57]

Same with autos Steve. Thurman Munson's auto is worth more than Ted Williams' or Mickey Mantle's. Why? Because it is far more rare. So what is the outlook on autos of a guy whose been sitting at a table signing stacks of cards for Topps or Pannini since he was 17 years old? I would bet that there are already several thousands more mike Trout autos (at age 26) out there than Thurman Munson autos (who died at age 32). Certainly on baseball cards. I will admit that I have no numbers to back up that theory, but I would bet I'm right.

[Snapolit1]

Totally agree. With the exception of an untimely death or a guy who has a real issue with signing for some odd reason, modern era autographs are valuelesss in my opinion. Might give you a nice warm feeling to look at but not an asset to sell to anyone.

Ps. Want a Pete Rose? He’s sitting at a store in Vegas all day long waiting for someone to walk in and say hello.

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

modern era autographs are valuelesss in my opinion. Might give you a nice warm feeling to look at but not an asset to sell to anyone.

Mantle signed a ton; certain auto’d cards of his are worth quite a bit. The people who own the supers and gold auto XRCs of the likes of Trout and any other future longterm stars are certainly holding assets. To try and lump all auto’d modern cards together is a bit supercilious. Just enjoy whatever you collect without looking down at other collectors and their choices. And if you’re going to insist on taking such pot shots, please consider augmenting/tempering the opinion you’re so quick to type with knowledge and experience in the area you are slighting.

[Orioles1954]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Mantle signed a ton; certain auto’d cards of his are worth quite a bit. The people who own the supers and gold auto XRCs of the likes of Trout and any other future longterm stars are certainly holding assets. To try and lump all auto’d modern cards together is a bit supercilious. Just enjoy whatever you collect without looking down at other collectors and their choices. And if you’re going to insist on taking such pot shots, please consider augmenting/tempering the opinion you’re so quick to type with knowledge and experience in the area you are slighting.

I've been enjoying your comments on this thread. Keep 'em up! It's so elitist to look at pre-war/vintage as a higher standard of collecting that newer collectors should attain to. I really enjoy buying $40-50 boxes, opening them, then give the Orioles to my son and sell the rest. It's an enjoyment that pre-war can't provide for me. In my experience, modern collectors are very enthusiastic regarding vintage cards. Wish they were afforded the same respect.

[KingFisk]

Thinking about grabbing this one for the investment portfolio.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/RARER-THAN-...4bba%7Ciid%3A1

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Mantle signed a ton; certain auto’d cards of his are worth quite a bit. The people who own the supers and gold auto XRCs of the likes of Trout and any other future longterm stars are certainly holding assets. To try and lump all auto’d modern cards together is a bit supercilious. Just enjoy whatever you collect without looking down at other collectors and their choices. And if you’re going to insist on taking such pot shots, please consider augmenting/tempering the opinion you’re so quick to type with knowledge and experience in the area you are slighting.

Matty, lobbing potshots was not my goal. I expressed my opinion. Maybe it was right and maybe it was wrong. Just an opinion. Wasn't attacking anyone personally or what they want to collect. If it's wrong or stupid, people can call me on it. I thought that the whole idea of this board was to share information and different views.

[ALR-bishop]

Originally Posted by Orioles1954

I've been enjoying your comments on this thread. Keep 'em up! It's so elitist to look at pre-war/vintage as a higher standard of collecting that newer collectors should attain to. I really enjoy buying $40-50 boxes, opening them, then give the Orioles to my son and sell the rest. It's an enjoyment that pre-war can't provide for me. In my experience, modern collectors are very enthusiastic regarding vintage cards. Wish they were afforded the same respect.

+ 1. Good for you Matty

[Leon]

You better nab that puppy. They don't get much more rare/hyped. I mean the seller says "RARER THAN PSA 10 OHTANI OR JUDGE ROOKIE." How could you go wrong?
[/B]

Originally Posted by KingFisk

Thinking about grabbing this one for the investment portfolio.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/RARER-THAN-...4bba%7Ciid%3A1

[iowadoc77]

Originally Posted by Leon

You better nab that puppy. They don't get much more rare/hyped. I mean the seller says "RARER THAN PSA 10 OHTANI OR JUDGE ROOKIE." How could you go wrong?
[/B]

Phenomenal upside on that one!

[Exhibitman]

Modern can be fun. I've opened four boxes of Heritage this year because I love the design and enjoy the rips.



OK, one was hobby and three were WalMart but still. I'm enjoying assembling a base set from scratch, trading with friends to fill in gaps, etc. I don't really care about the lotto results; if I pull a good insert I'd probably just trade it away. I've only ever pulled one good insert:



I probably spent $1K on cards that year, so I won't make a dime on it, ever. But I had a hell of a lot of fun busting all the packs that year.

There is definitely a modern autograph market. Just depends on the price. I wouldn't pay $3K for an Ohtani signed card but that's just because I won't pay that for nearly any signed card, but I'd definitely buy and have bought modern signed cards of players I admire:



One of my want list items for the National is an Ichiro signed card. The thrill of owning something that a baseball god signed is there regardless of whether it was signed in 1910 or 2010.

I paid $0.50 for this Bud Selig:



probably overpaid...

[Stampsfan]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I paid $0.50 for this Bud Selig:

...

probably overpaid...

Agreed. I wouldn't want anything from "Bud Light" except to burn it.

[KingFisk]

Originally Posted by Leon

You better nab that puppy. They don't get much more rare/hyped. I mean the seller says "RARER THAN PSA 10 OHTANI OR JUDGE ROOKIE." How could you go wrong?
[/B]

Corners do look mighty sharp...

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[CurtisFlood]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Exorbitant is different for each person. I am someone buying modern (in addition to Pre and Post war) and I can tell you when “I get hit with the news” you seem to see in your crystal ball, I won’t care what my modern is worth— I am collecting.

Good plan. An old guy told me a long time ago to buy what you like. Then when it isn't worth anything at least you will like it.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by orly57

Be glad. We all started off collecting new cards. It's a natural progression which only insures the future of our hobby.

+1 in general. The only trouble will arise when that $50K Stanton refractor becomes a $500.00 refractor, which is the likely, long-term result when the demand boosting it to that level is speculative and transient in nature, and disappears with time. Two definitions of insanity: (1) doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result; and (2) buying a Stanton refractor for $50K.

Best to all,

Larry

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by orly57

I bought up every Todd Van Poppel and Brien Taylor card I could find. Some were as much as a whopping $20. If those guys were coming into the league today, their 1/1 autos would sell for multiple thousands off the bat. Imagine what a 1/1 canseco rookie auto would sell for today if he had come into the league in 2015 and had those dominant seasons he had. And think of the drop on that card once Canseco lost his mojo. They can't all be Mike Trout...that's why he's special. I don't collect new stuff, but some members on the board whom I respect do. They are educated guys who enjoy rooting on the players whose cards they own. There is fun in that, and that's what collecting is all about. Any way you look at it, it's good that people come into the hobby and follow baseball.

+1 again, pretty much. Only it's not yet certain that even Mike Trout can continue to be Mike Trout. The home stretch isn't even in sight yet. The time to buy him, if he continues on his obvious very strong HOF path, will be in his mid-thirties' downslide, when the speculative and transient demand has vanished, and the newest latest and greatest phenom has come along. A PSA 8 NNOF Frank Thomas could have been had for approximately $500-$600 circa 2008 or so.

Highest regards, Orly,

Larry

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

While I don't collect modern, I can understand this sentiment completely. I can imagine that if you took your son to a Reds game and Joey Votto winked at your boy on the on-deck circle and then cracked 2 HRs, you'd have more allegiance for him that you would any Mantle, Williams, or Ruth (all flawed characters in their own right.)

When it comes to the modern/vintage debate, I try to separate the players from the cards. While I think modern players can spark passion, I personally, do not appreciate the cards. If I love Mike Trout, for example, which of his 100 rookie cards do I pursue? Should I go after the "Cognac Diamond Anniversary" edition or maybe the "Super Refractor with Bedazzled Edges 1/1" edition that looks like it was designed by an 8th grade girl? Having grown up in the 80s when there was just one base card of a rookie (yes, way overproduced), I am used to simplicity. I just can't wrap my head around the incredibly complex system of manufactured rarity that drives the modern market.

Don't get me wrong. I'm glad the modern market exists even if I don't participate in it. I would never begrudge anyone who does. It's just not for me, and that's a function of the cards, not the players.

Hi, Sam. From a sheer numbers standpoint, the many, many, many different "rookie" cards cannot do anything but cause a fragmentation of demand in the future. That means, of course, great difficulty in achieving any significant appreciation in value of any given example.

Best always,

Larry

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by orly57

No. My numbers are not way off. That is not the card I was referring to. Whether or not the million was actually paid, I don't know (probably not), but I remember it sold at a million. Your comment forced me to look it up, and I found this. I knew I wasn't crazy.

http://www.tuffstuff.com/news/hobby-...ids-flood-ebay

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/a...lled-by-seller


"At the time of this writing there have been 201 bids with the current high bid at $999,999 mark. The current high bidder seems to be legitimate with 1734 positive feedback from auctions has been bidding since the early stages but one can’t help but wonder if many of the recent bids are fake by people who have no intention of ever puchasing the card."

Truly a sad situation, IMHO. Shades of tuilipmania!

Regards,

Larry

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by orly57

Matty, we get that you collect for the sheer purity, love and enjoyment of the hobby. You can afford it, and could care less if Aaron Judge (or whoever) becomes a bust and you lost several thousands on their cards. But I think you are in the minority there. Just because you are an intelligent collector with means, it doesn't follow that many others aren't risking big bucks chasing the promise of the next Mike Trout. We all got burned in the 80's, but that was CHUMP CHANGE compared to the money being spent on speculative prospects like Strasbourg. I think that is the greater point of this thread. But as I mentioned in a previous post, I think any form of collecting cards is good for our hobby, and I'm all for it.
I will also echo Sam's sentiment from a previous post in that I would love to buy the cards of modern players, but just hate that each guy has 1,000 rookies IN DIFFERING YEARS. There are too many to choose from. I don't want to just buy his 472nd "best" rookie, but I also don't want to spend 5-figures on one of his top 5 rookies. I will spend it on Ruth or Cobb because the cards are awesome and their status as immortals is already secured.

Very well stated, as usual, Orly. It brings to mind the thought that just over 1% of the players who ever played major league baseball actually made the HOF. Even Trout is not yet anywhere near a sure thing. This game is essentially one for vigorous young men in their twenties, and for a small few, their early thirties, by and large. Check out Bill James' studies on player performance versus age. By age 35, even the few good enough to still play at a major league level are then producing at a rate of only about 65% of their peak, and it's downhill from there for almost all. The last time Willie Mays was really Willie Mays was 1966, when he was 35 years old. Aaron appeared to play at a higher level longer, but the Fulton County "Launching Pad" masked a lot of his decline--check his home/road splits after the Braves moved to Atlanta. I enjoy watching Trout, because he's the closest thing I have seen to Mickey Mantle since I have been a baseball fanatic in the very early sixties, but sorry, he's only really reached second base, and is still far from home.

Best to you,

Larry