Depressing

Bored5000 · #1 03-30-2018, 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Go check prices realized on a Heritage auction. You'll feel better.

Correct. Searching by highest price on eBay and extrapolating out that people are more willing to spend huge cash on new cards is at least somewhat faulty because so much of the really top-level pre-war stuff doesn't get sold on eBay; it gets sold at places like REA, Heritage, Goldin.

How many Lebron jersey cards or Stanton refractors do you suppose will be up for auction at REA this year?

bbcard1 · #2 03-30-2018, 06:19 PM

Prewar seems very strong to me.

slidekellyslide · #3 03-30-2018, 06:31 PM

How many if those �new� cards are one back injury, positive drug test or scandal away from losing all value? The good thing about Ruth, Gehrig, Cobb, Mantle et cetera is that nothing can ever damage their reputations from this point on.

frankbmd · #4 03-30-2018, 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slidekellyslide

How many if those �new� cards are one back injury, positive drug test or scandal away from losing all value? The good thing about Ruth, Gehrig, Cobb, Mantle et cetera is that nothing can ever damage their reputations from this point on.

And they are all dead.

MattyC · #5 03-30-2018, 10:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slidekellyslide

How many if those “new” cards are one back injury, positive drug test or scandal away from losing all value? The good thing about Ruth, Gehrig, Cobb, Mantle et cetera is that nothing can ever damage their reputations from this point on.

To some who buy cards of modern players, the endeavor is not about potential value one way or the other. At its purest, back in boyhood, I'd venture collecting grew from a fondness and rooting for a specific player or team, not future monetary considerations.

Snapolit1 · #6 03-30-2018, 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bored5000

Correct. Searching by highest price on eBay and extrapolating out that people are more willing to spend huge cash on new cards is at least somewhat faulty because so much of the really top-level pre-war stuff doesn't get sold on eBay; it gets sold at places like REA, Heritage, Goldin.

How many Lebron jersey cards or Stanton refractors do you suppose will be up for auction at REA this year?

Not trying to be a pre-war snob here, but younger "collectors" (really speculators) on eBay ask obscene prices for auto cards and shiny crap that doesn't realize 1/3,000 of what the price they are throwing out there for shits and giggles. No one is paying $800,000 for a Trout card. Sorry. Not happening. Can ask anything you want.

Looking at what people are "asking" on eBay is really a very poor way to assess the health of a market.

orly57 · #7 03-30-2018, 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Not trying to be a pre-war snob here, but younger "collectors" (really speculators) on eBay ask obscene prices for auto cards and shiny crap that doesn't realize 1/3,000 of what the price they are throwing out there for shits and giggles. No one is paying $800,000 for a Trout card. Sorry. Not happening. Can ask anything you want.

Looking at what people are "asking" on eBay is really a very poor way to assess the health of a market.

Didn't a Strasburg 1/1 sell on eBay for around a million bucks a few years ago? Heck of an investment for a guy who is 84-45 with a career era over 3.

Gary Dunaier · #8 04-15-2018, 12:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by orly57

Didn't a Strasburg 1/1 sell on eBay for around a million bucks a few years ago? Heck of an investment for a guy who is 84-45 with a career era over 3.

Your numbers are way off... it was $16,000. But your point is still valid. Very valid.

At the time, Strasburg had yet to play a single game in the majors!

Here's a history of the Strasburg card: link. Fascinating in-depth look at a card that's less than 10 years old.

orly57 · #9 04-15-2018, 12:28 AM

No. My numbers are not way off. That is not the card I was referring to. Whether or not the million was actually paid, I don't know (probably not), but I remember it sold at a million. Your comment forced me to look it up, and I found this. I knew I wasn't crazy.

http://www.tuffstuff.com/news/hobby-...ids-flood-ebay

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/a...lled-by-seller

"At the time of this writing there have been 201 bids with the current high bid at $999,999 mark. The current high bidder seems to be legitimate with 1734 positive feedback from auctions has been bidding since the early stages but one can’t help but wonder if many of the recent bids are fake by people who have no intention of ever puchasing the card."

MattyC · #10 04-15-2018, 01:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by orly57

No. My numbers are not way off. That is not the card I was referring to. Whether or not the million was actually paid, I don't know (probably not), but I remember it sold at a million. Your comment forced me to look it up, and I found this. I knew I wasn't crazy.

http://www.tuffstuff.com/news/hobby-...ids-flood-ebay

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/a...lled-by-seller

"At the time of this writing there have been 201 bids with the current high bid at $999,999 mark. The current high bidder seems to be legitimate with 1734 positive feedback from auctions has been bidding since the early stages but one can�t help but wonder if many of the recent bids are fake by people who have no intention of ever puchasing the card."

This thing happens in the Pre and Post War space all the time, as well. Get a sale recorded in the pricing history, or parroted by a TPGs twitter account...and voila.

ls7plus · #11 04-20-2018, 11:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by orly57

No. My numbers are not way off. That is not the card I was referring to. Whether or not the million was actually paid, I don't know (probably not), but I remember it sold at a million. Your comment forced me to look it up, and I found this. I knew I wasn't crazy.

http://www.tuffstuff.com/news/hobby-...ids-flood-ebay

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/a...lled-by-seller

"At the time of this writing there have been 201 bids with the current high bid at $999,999 mark. The current high bidder seems to be legitimate with 1734 positive feedback from auctions has been bidding since the early stages but one can�t help but wonder if many of the recent bids are fake by people who have no intention of ever puchasing the card."

Truly a sad situation, IMHO. Shades of tuilipmania!

Regards,

Larry

MattyC · #12 03-30-2018, 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Not trying to be a pre-war snob here, but younger "collectors" (really speculators) on eBay ask obscene prices for auto cards and shiny crap that doesn't realize 1/3,000 of what the price they are throwing out there for shits and giggles. No one is paying $800,000 for a Trout card. Sorry. Not happening. Can ask anything you want.

Looking at what people are "asking" on eBay is really a very poor way to assess the health of a market.

While I completely agree with the point quoted above, I'd respectfully hang a lantern on using the term "shiny crap," especially if one doesn't want to come off like a "pre-war snob" and unnecessarily offend a whole cross-section of their fellow baseball card enthusiasts.

I do agree an eBay search is not the ideal method of assessing the PreWar space, considering the likes of REA, Heritage, etc. are where so many great pieces in the space are routinely bought/sold.

Peter_Spaeth · #13 03-30-2018, 10:27 PM

I confess to buying the occasional shiny thing. My new Trout RC lol, very sparkly in hand.

MattyC · #14 03-30-2018, 10:32 PM

What a superb ballplayer. And a very cool-looking card to represent him in your collection, Peter. The game is so damn hard, and Trout makes it look so easy.

Peter_Spaeth · #15 03-30-2018, 10:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MattyC

What a superb ballplayer. And a very cool-looking card to represent him in your collection, Peter. The game is so damn hard, and Trout makes it look so easy.

He and Harper (IMO the other great talent of this generation, although as yet not fully realized) are sort of yin and yang, although for all his bad ass veneer Harper is a very hard-working and fundamentally solid player.

MattyC · #16 03-30-2018, 10:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He and Harper (IMO the other great talent of this generation, although as yet not fully realized) are sort of yin and yang, although for all his bad ass veneer Harper is a very hard-working and fundamentally solid player.

Agreed. I watched Harper's game today and he flashed a bunt to the left side, which I really liked.

I get as much enjoyment from looking at the one Harper card I have as I do from looking at my CJ Cobb or my 1986 Dwight Gooden Record Breaker. It takes such enormous talent just to get drafted, let alone put up an elite MLB season— or a whole HOF-level career. Different levels of achievement, for sure, yet huge respect for each one. Heck, trying to hit consistent line drives off a fast machine in a cage is hard enough, LOL!

Snapolit1 · #17 03-31-2018, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He and Harper (IMO the other great talent of this generation, although as yet not fully realized) are sort of yin and yang, although for all his bad ass veneer Harper is a very hard-working and fundamentally solid player.

They are great great talents, but we live in very different times today. Millions of men my age cherish Mickey Mantle (shout out to Billy Crystal of course) and hence the demand for his cards. Lots of people appreciate Harper and Votto and Trout but I think it's a different time and place. I don't see the unabashed affection. Without getting political at all, look how differently people people viewed FDR and John Kennedy than how politicians are viewed today.

The crazy prices realized on newish cards are plain and simple a financial roll of the dice. A spin of the roulette wheel. Yes, that happens in pre-war of course, but some people want a Ty Cobb card because they actually want a Ty Cobb card.

7nohitter · #18 04-05-2018, 06:12 AM

Although I collect PRIMARILY Nolan Ryan, Mantle, Williams and 1950's cards, I do have a decent collection of Trout, Harper, Kershaw and Tom Brady.

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