Modern Era HOF Ballot: Who do you think should get in?

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by rats60

Yet you think Ted Simmons is a Hofer? It took him 19 seasons to accumulate 50 WAR. About 2 1/2 WAR per season is very average. Thurman Munson would be far more deserving, 46 WAR in 9 1/2 seasons, almost 5 per season. I would take Bill Freehan over Simmons and his 44 WAR in 14 seasons plus 5 gold gloves and 2 top 3 MVP finishes.

He is easily the worst candidate on that list. He never finished top 5 in MVP voting. At least those other guys all had short peeks, won MVP awards, top 5 finishes, gold gloves. If you are going to elect a marginal candidate, it should be someone who was great for a short period, not a compiler who wasn't very good at compiling.

I never heard anyone ever say Ted Simmons was a Hofer during his career. Tiant yes, Trammell yes, Morris yes, Murphy yes, Parker yes, Mattingly yes, Garvey yes, Munson yes, Whitaker yes, Tony Oliva yes, Dick Allen yes and now with 96 WAR Beltre yes.

I agree with you regarding Freehan as being a viable name. He is realy forgotten but was an incredible defensive catcher who had two huge seasons where he was one of the best players at any position in the league and several others where he was pretty darn good.

I disagree regarding Simmons however. By my estimation it could be argued that he is one of the ten best catchers in baseball history. He hung around too long but by that point he was no longer a catcher. 1983 was his last as a catcher, and through the end of that season, his career OPS+ was 126 in 7,244 AB 95% of which were as a catcher. I like the win shares statistic. Do you know how many catchers in the history of baseball had 10 consecutive 20+ win share seasons? Three. Yogi Berra 12 straight, Mike Piazza ten stright and Ted Simmons ten straight. To be fair, Johnny Bench had fourteen straight years of 19+ win shares. Still, that is some really good company to keep.

By using Munson as a comparison, you give Munson credit for not having a career end slope. His career OPS+ would have dropped had he been around to have a natural career arc.

Simmons had the fourth most hits in baseball history as a catcher. For his career, only two catchers had more total bases than he did (Fisk and Pudge). He also has the ninth most hits in history for a switch hitter.

JAWS ranks Simmons tenth in baseball history as a catcher. Behind Bench, Carter, Rodriguez, Fisk, Piazza, Berra, Mauer, Dickey, Cochrane. Ahead of the likes of Hartnett, Ewing, Munson, Lombardi, Posey, Bresnahan, Schalk, Campanella, Ferrell.

Tom C

[clydepepper]

I think a lot of these guys don't get in because they didn't have the Baseball equivalent of a 'Heisman' moment...something that sticks in your memory forever...like Flutie's Hale Mary.

Of course the have to have the good stats over a prolonged period of time...as Baseball is 'a marathon, not a sprint', but the biggest moments are what is recalled decades later.

Kirk Gibson had THE MOMENT but not the lengthy career...but, IMO, that's exactly the kind of truly Legendary Moment I'm referring to.

Grinders do get in, but they are Eddie Murrays, not Harold Baines.

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by clydepepper

I think a lot of these guys don't get in because they didn't have the Baseball equivalent of a 'Heisman' moment...something that sticks in your memory forever...like Flutie's Hale Mary.

Of course the have to have the good stats over a prolonged period of time...as Baseball is 'a marathon, not a sprint', but the biggest moments are what is recalled decades later.

Kirk Gibson had THE MOMENT but not the lengthy career...but, IMO, that's exactly the kind of truly Legendary Moment I'm referring to.

Grinders do get in, but they are Eddie Murrays, not Harold Baines.

Jack Morris HAD a MOMENT as described above, Ted Simmons, left out by a single vote, did not.
.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

I agree with you regarding Freehan as being a viable name. He is realy forgotten but was an incredible defensive catcher who had two huge seasons where he was one of the best players at any position in the league and several others where he was pretty darn good.

I disagree regarding Simmons however. By my estimation it could be argued that he is one of the ten best catchers in baseball history. He hung around too long but by that point he was no longer a catcher. 1983 was his last as a catcher, and through the end of that season, his career OPS+ was 126 in 7,244 AB 95% of which were as a catcher. I like the win shares statistic. Do you know how many catchers in the history of baseball had 10 consecutive 20+ win share seasons? Three. Yogi Berra 12 straight, Mike Piazza ten stright and Ted Simmons ten straight. To be fair, Johnny Bench had fourteen straight years of 19+ win shares. Still, that is some really good company to keep.

By using Munson as a comparison, you give Munson credit for not having a career end slope. His career OPS+ would have dropped had he been around to have a natural career arc.

Simmons had the fourth most hits in baseball history as a catcher. For his career, only two catchers had more total bases than he did (Fisk and Pudge). He also has the ninth most hits in history for a switch hitter.

JAWS ranks Simmons tenth in baseball history as a catcher. Behind Bench, Carter, Rodriguez, Fisk, Piazza, Berra, Mauer, Dickey, Cochrane. Ahead of the likes of Hartnett, Ewing, Munson, Lombardi, Posey, Bresnahan, Schalk, Campanella, Ferrell.

Tom C

Simmons was a slightly below average defensive player at a position that is primarily know for defense. He had a negative total zone rating and a dWAR of 4.7. If you are going to be that bad defensively, you should be a great hitter like Mike Piazza.

Munson and Freehan are top 25 in dWAR. Of the top 25, only 5 have an OPS+ of 110 or more, Bench, Carter and Fisk plus Munson and Freehan.. Great defensively and above average offensively should be in the HOF.

Hartnett had more WAR despite playing 466 less games. Had a higher dWAR despite using inferior equipment, of the top 25 in dWAR only Ray Schalk played prior to WW2. He also had an OPS+ of 126. I will take him over Simmons.

Ewing played in the 19th century. Most of those guys wouldn't get elected today. He is in representative of his era.

Munson only played 9 1/2 seasons because he died in a plane crash. If he had been able to finish his career, his OPS+ would have dropped, but his WAR would have exceeded Simmons. His WAR7 was higher than Simmons.

Posey is still playing. His HoF worthiness is yet to be determined. His WAR7 is already higher than Simmons despite only playing 7 full seasons.

Schalk was the best defensive catcher when he was elected. He is a weak, but understandable pick. He wouldn't be in today, but you don't kick guys out.

Campanella has more dWAR and a higher OPS+ than Simmons. His WAR suffers from only playing 9 1/2 seasons. His first full season was at age 27 because he was black and banned from playing those early years in the majors. I will take him over Simmons.

Bresnahan has a higher dWAR and OPS+ than Simmons. His WAR is lower because he played 1000 less games than Simmons. Like Ewing he is in as a representative of his era. He wouldn't be elected today.

Lombardi and Ferrell should have never been elected. When your comparables are dead ball era players and two of the worst HOF picks, that isn't a good case. When Munson and Freehan get elected and about a dozen other guys get elected, then Simmons should be considered. He is not some slam dunk pick.

[btcarfagno]

From Beyond The Boxscore:

"Ted Simmons, to me, is the most bewildering Hall snub. While the advanced metrics strongly support his case, I feel that he actually fares better if you look at him by his traditional numbers.

Simmons ranks 11th all time among catchers in WAR and 10th in wWAR. Those are excellent, Hall-type rankings. But you know what's better? First.

Before Ivan Rodriguez came along, that's exactly where Ted Simmons ranked among the hit leaders for catchers. First (he's now second). Can you imagine the all time leader in hits for a catcher debuting on the ballot and failing to collect the 5% to stay on the ballot? It's actually pretty insane.

Simmons is also second to Rodriguez in doubles (meaning he was #1 all time when he retired), second to Yogi Berra in RBI, fifth in extra-base hits, sixth in runs scored, and 11th in home runs (among catchers). He was an 8-time All Star. He finished in the top ten in batting average six times, hits four times, doubles eight times, and RBI six times. Again, the traditional numbers seem to set him up perfectly for induction.

The issue, apparently, is that Simmons doesn't have the best reputation as a defensive catcher. The numbers just don't back it up, though. Researcher Bill Deane (as Bill James describes in Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame?) ran the numbers and found that Simmons' handle on the running game was actually a slight asset to his teams, not a liability. Total Zone essentially agrees and rates him as just eight runs below average. Over 1771 games caught, that's just another way of saying "league average".

One other unique aspect of Ted Simmons' career is how he finished. In his final five seasons (after his excellent age 33 season), he was—worthless. He was worth a combined –2.8 WAR in 1591 plate appearances. So, if he had quit five seasons earlier, he would have been a 53.2 WAR player rather than a 50.4 WAR player. Not a huge difference, but that's a lot of golf he could have been playing.

Through a more traditional lens, in those last five seasons he added 356 hits, 70 doubles, 26 home runs, and 194 RBI to his career totals. So, while Simmons looks good as a 2472-hit catcher, he actually would have had a more valuable career as a 2116-hit catcher, retiring after the 1983 season. Go figure.

Still, Simmons is among the top ten offensive catchers in history. He would need to be pretty lousy defensively to ruin his Hall of Fame case. The fact that he was basically a league-average catcher (or better) means that it doesn't affect his ranking. A Top 10 catcher should be inducted."

Also here is a great read from the Hardball Times where he isn't completely sold on Simmons to the Hall, but believes he is the equal of Gary Carter. So....

https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/does-t...-hall-of-fame/

Tom C