The Future of Negro League Players in the Hall

[Topnotchsy]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

Just to play devil's advocate here, given the racial makeup of the country at the time, in the absence of any bias wouldn't one conclude that there should be approximately 10 white players of the era in the Hall for every Negro League player? And isn't the actual ratio far lower than that? Or is there compelling evidence to conclude (e.g., from exhibition games and post-integration data) that the top 100 black players were approximately as good as the top 100 white players in spite of there being a 90% smaller pool from which to draw the talent? And if so doesn't that suggest a remarkably (or astonishingly) large population level race difference in baseball skills?

It's an interesting point and one that others who are greater experts could probably speak on more but there are a number of lines of reasoning that would lead one to assume this:

1) Black players who played in the Negro Leagues and then went on to play in the Majors were successful disproportionate to their numbers. Obviously there was some selection bias but consider that this group includes Jackie Robinson, Larry Doby, Roy Campanella, Don Newcombe, Willie Mays, Minnie Miñoso and Ernie Banks. It's anecdotal to some degree, but just in this group you have some of the greatest of all-time in at least 4 positions (2nd base, catcher, center field and shortstop).

2) Competition between Negro League and Major League players - The book Outsider Baseball includes a ton of analysis on comparing the levels of quality and while no league matched the Majors in quality, it was far better than might be expected based on percentages in this country.

I imagine that when you combine players from other countries and territories (Cuba, Puerto Rico etc) it's not a 10:1 ratio. I also would guess that minorities who often had less options for either economic freedom as well as ways to pass the time, played baseball at a greater percentage.

It would also not surprise me if the sheer number of games they played in the Negro Leagues, and the fact that this was their livelihood, compelled them to play at a high level and get the most out of their talents. Players in the Majors would have had similar experiences to degree (albeit maybe without the level of desperation) but consider that at the highest levels the Negro Leagues had a decent number of teams (depending on the year) meaning that a larger percentage of minorities were playing at the "top level"