$500 to spend on memorabilia...asking for advice

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by packs

Buy Mike Trout now, sit on it, profit later.

Can't agree. I think Trout will end up by far with the largest number of refractors cards, blue refractor cards, red auto refractor cards, blue and red refractor cards, ad infinitum in the history of the hobby. Clean up someday by collecting something no one is smart enough to collect, not by collecting the thing everyone and his brother is hoarding.

I went to a card story down in south Jersey and half the room was Trout cards.

[packs]

I don't think anyone is talking about cards. I'm talking about memorabilia: game used bats, jerseys, hats, etc. High end HOF materials go for crazy money and Trout will surely be at the highest end of the HOF with the career he is likely to have.

[Forever Young]

Originally Posted by packs

I don't think anyone is talking about cards. I'm talking about memorabilia: game used bats, jerseys, hats, etc. High end HOF materials go for crazy money and Trout will surely be at the highest end of the HOF with the career he is likely to have.

Do you think Trout bats will then appreciate? They are already pretty pricy.

[packs]

Look how much Mantle bats with iron clad provenance sell for. I think Trout will be in the upper of upper echelons when he retires and all of his material can be had with MLB holograms vs. a story you must believe.

[Topnotchsy]

Originally Posted by packs

Look how much Mantle bats with iron clad provenance sell for. I think Trout will be in the upper of upper echelons when he retires and all of his material can be had with MLB holograms vs. a story you must believe.

There are 3 major differences between Trout and Mantle that I can think of:

1) Mantle played at a time when people did not assume that everything connected to him would be worth a lot of money. Because of this, they did not save every single bat, every batting glove, every jersey, every toenail clipping. They do for Trout. The quantity of Trout related items will likely be 1000x more than Mantle by the time he retires.

2) Mantle played in NY on the Yankees at a time when baseball was #1 among sports, and maybe among all forms of entertainment. Today there are so many more forms of entertainment that grab people's attention. Trout has been Mantle-esque to this point (maybe even better season-by-season) but he will never be as big a star.

3) Mantle's career is done. While Trout is absolutely on his way to being an inner-circle Hall of Famer, there is still the chance that something happens to curtail that. It is awful to consider anything really bad happening, but if Trout's career ended now, his memorabilia would drop to a small percentage of their current value, which means for someone who is looking to pick something up as a safe investment, Trout can be pretty risky. Even if he keeps playing another 10-12 seasons but is like Griffey and the second half of his career is much more average, his stuff will drop in value.

[packs]

I didn't say they were the same thing and my point about Mantle's item was that you're taking a giant leap of faith by accepting the story behind an item vs. buying something guaranteed and authenticated by MLB in Trout. I used Mantle as an example because many people have said for years that Trout could be the next Mantle or compared their numbers as Trout's career has played out. Mantle is also at the top of the HOF tier where items are the most expensive, which is where I think Trout will end up.

If you buy something now before someone is a HOFer, and that person becomes one of the greatest players of all time later, it would stand to reason that the item would inflate. Then inflate again as induction came up. That's when you sell.

[Topnotchsy]

Originally Posted by packs

I didn't say they were the same thing and my point about Mantle's item was that you're taking a giant leap of faith by accepting the story behind an item vs. buying something guaranteed and authenticated by MLB in Trout. I used Mantle as an example because many people have said for years that Trout could be the next Mantle or compared their numbers as Trout's career has played out. Mantle is also at the top of the HOF tier where items are the most expensive, which is where I think Trout will end up.

If you buy something now before someone is a HOFer, and that person becomes one of the greatest players of all time later, it would stand to reason that the item would inflate. Then inflate again as induction came up. That's when you sell.

I'm not sure I agree with this on 2 accounts:

1) I don't think the provenance really matters much to be honest. When it comes to collectors of Mickey Mantle, almost all the options have at best 3rd party provenance. Collectors don't have the choice to pursue anything else, and so they compete over what is available. For Trout, given the way MLB now authenticates things, that has become the new standard. The bar is now higher, but the basic laws of supply and demand don't change. I could be wrong but I think there are probably very few collectors who want to collect Mantle but don't because of the provenance. If this is the case, I don't see prices being affected much.

2) Regarding prices increasing, once again I am not sure that this will be the case. The assumption needs to be that throughout Trout's career, the demand will continue to rise faster than the supply increases, and I am not sure that that can be expected with the way MLB pumps out memorabilia. It is definitely possible, but if Trout plays another 15 seasons and has 600 plate appearances in each, we will likely hundreds of jerseys, thousands of bats, and possibly a million autographs of his on the market.

[David Atkatz]

Originally Posted by packs

Look how much Mantle bats with iron clad provenance sell for. I think Trout will be in the upper of upper echelons when he retires and all of his material can be had with MLB holograms vs. a story you must believe.

Trout's bats will never be worth what a Mantle gamer goes for now. Mantle didn't hang on to each and every bat he ever used. Broken bat? In the bin. There will be a hundred Trout bats--or more--for every existing Mantle gamer.

[packs]

I didn't say it would. I only mentioned Mantle because I think they will occupy similar tiers and popularity in terms of best players of all time. If you don't want to buy Trout you're doing me a favor so please continue to pass on him.

[billyb]

Mike was correct on an earlier post.

Rule number 1: Collect what you love and don't count on it as an investment or you'll end up disappointed.
Rule number 2: See Rule number 1.

It will be displayed, I am sure, where he will see these items on a daily basis. So he better like the memorabilia, first and foremost. So you need to pick his brain and find out what Baltimore players was he fond of and a youth. Memorabilia is just that, memories.

[David Atkatz]

Originally Posted by packs

I didn't say it would. I only mentioned Mantle because I think they will occupy similar tiers and popularity in terms of best players of all time. If you don't want to buy Trout you're doing me a favor so please continue to pass on him.

No problem. I have no interest in contemporary players.