Aaron Judge

[packs]

How do account for the difference in WAR over 8 seasons? Mariano's is 26 and Kimbrel's is 16.5. Kimbrel's highest single season total was 3.3. Mariano eclipsed 3.3 WAR 9 times in his career. That's a pretty big difference for two pitchers you say are similar.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by packs

How do account for the difference in WAR over 8 seasons? Mariano's is 26 and Kimbrel's is 16.5. Kimbrel's highest single season total was 3.3. Mariano eclipsed 3.3 WAR 9 times in his career. That's a pretty big difference for two pitchers you say are similar.

Innings pretty much. Mariano faced more batters and likely did it against better opposition, in tougher ballparks, and also did it right in the heart of the steroid era.

Even then, as a reliever, most weren't running out and buying up Mariano rookie cards. He started old and most expected him to peter out. It wasn't until many years later when people realized what a generational talent he was.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I think we're a couple of years away from fairly comparing Kimbrel. I am rooting for him.

[yanksfan09]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I think we're a couple of years away from fairly comparing Kimbrel. I am rooting for him.

Yea that's the thing. Longevity is key for closers. You see tons of guys have a great 4-8 year stretch maybe but then fall apart. It's hard to remain dominant in the later years. Also, so much of Mariano is his stellar playoff performance.

Kimbrels been great but, It a bit like saying Mike Trout is as good as Ted Williams, just too soon to make any comparison. Not saying it can't happen either though.

[yanksfan09]

This thread needs a little shiny eye candy...

I've been less and less into newer cards over the years and am mostly all vintage but must admit that Aaron Judge has caught my fascination and just "had to have" some of his stuff! As a Yankee fan, this has been awesome to watch, at least for Judge. The crippling recent injuries and rough stretch is another issue altogether! I realize the ride could stop at any time or at least slow down with Judge, and don't advocate buying into Judge right now as any great sure fire long term investment, but sometimes you just need to have fun!

Thankfully I got these early enough in the real crazy run up, think all are probably going for 2x or more what I paid.

[orly57]

Nice cards erick. It does look like he put more effort into signing that ball than he did into signing the cards though. He actually has a real nice signature on that ball.
I have been meaning to ask new-card guys this for a while. Why is it that in modern collecting so many guys have "rookies" in various years. Like Yoan Moncada, for example, has Leaf and Pannini issues in 2015, but also has "rookie" cards from 2016. I've noticed this with quite a few players.

[yanksfan09]

Originally Posted by orly57

Nice cards erick. It does look like he put more effort into signing that ball than he did into signing the cards though. He actually has a real nice signature on that ball.
I have been meaning to ask new-card guys this for a while. Why is it that in modern collecting so many guys have "rookies" in various years. Like Yoan Moncada, for example, has Leaf and Pannini issues in 2015, but also has "rookie" cards from 2016. I've noticed this with quite a few players.

Yea, that's why I wanted and paid more for that baseball. He signed some baseballs earlier (mine is from 2015) with a full name signature. However, the vast majority are just the A J version, or more recently he's been doing sort of an Aarn J-- version on some but very few are real full name signatures.

I completely don't get the whole RC card definition for new cards. It seems to be different for whoever you talk to. I was just discussing the issue in this thread... http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=241738

Moncada has some 1st cards (which I would consider to be rookies but some do not) in 2015 leaf and maybe another brand? Can't remember. These are unlicensed by MLB I think? I believe Topps has a monopoly on that now, which doesn't seem right to me either.

His first licensed Topps and Bowman cards are from 2016 I believe. And even though he debuted in 2016, his "RC logo" cards (which some modern collectors consider to be rookies) are from 2017 only I think. It's really confusing and makes no sense to me. To me first year cards are rookie cards (as long as they've been signed to an MLB franchise). I can see not calling high school cards Rookie cards, but once a player is signed to a franchise and has a major card issue I don't see how that's not a rookie. It has/had been for years. (1991 chipper jones, 1993 Jeters etc...)

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by packs

How do account for the difference in WAR over 8 seasons? Mariano's is 26 and Kimbrel's is 16.5. Kimbrel's highest single season total was 3.3. Mariano eclipsed 3.3 WAR 9 times in his career. That's a pretty big difference for two pitchers you say are similar.

I don't know what 8 years you are comparing for Mariano, but Kimbrel hasn't played a full 8 seasons yet. So you can't compare 8 seasons. For the years I compared (Kimbrel's full seasons 2011-2016, and Rivera's first 6 full seasons as a reliever 1997-2002) then the numbers are Kimbrel 13.6 and Rivera 17.5. This still puts the favor in Rivera, but not nearly the difference you have. It also backs up my theory, though, that Rivera didn't have many comps when he played. Today Kimbrel is, arguably, not even the best this season, but doing better than Rivera.

Again I would like to remind you that I am not saying Mariano wasn't great. I am refuting the idea that "He's a once in a lifetime talent". The game is changing and Kimbrel is a sign of this.

On this subject of the game changing here is an interesting article from earlier this week:

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news...a1drgug56ipj9x

[packs]

I took the years 1996 through 2003, the first 8 years of Mariano's career as a relief pitcher. His war was 26.0. Even if you cut out 2003 because it was a full season and Kimbrel's in the midst of a full season, Rivera's war was still 22.4, considerably higher than Kimbrel's and during the height of the steroid era.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by packs

I took the years 1996 through 2003, the first 8 years of Mariano's career as a relief pitcher. His war was 26.0. Even if you cut out 2003 because it was a full season and Kimbrel's in the midst of a full season, Rivera's war was still 22.4, considerably higher than Kimbrel's and during the height of the steroid era.

Again Kimbrel hasn't played 8 years. He hasn't finished this season, and didn't break RC status in 2010.

Mariano was not a full time closer in 1996, he was a setup man. He had 107 innings that year and only had 8svo. Closer WARs are always lower, it doesn't favor part time pitchers. So you can't use that season to compare to a closer.

I gave you the most comparable stats I could. The first 6 full seasons of closer duty for both pitchers.

[packs]

If those are the parameters then I don't think it's really worth discussing them yet. Rivera was an elite full-time closer for 17 of his 19 seasons. Kimbrel has been a full-time closer for only 6 seasons. It's like trying to compare Altuve to Cobb. Altuve had 985 hits after his first 5 full seasons, after 5 full seasons Cobb had 1058. I don't think Altuve will be within 100 or so hits of Cobb when he retires.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by packs

If those are the parameters then I don't think it's really worth discussing them yet. Rivera was an elite full-time closer for 17 of his 19 seasons. Kimbrel has been a full-time closer for only 6 seasons. It's like trying to compare Altuve to Cobb. Altuve had 985 hits after his first 5 full seasons, after 5 full seasons Cobb had 1058. I don't think Altuve will be within 100 or so hits of Cobb when he retires.

Oh please tell me you are kidding me right now. You are talking in circles. You already brought up cumulative stats. Here is my quick summation of responses and you can go back and read the full response with stats to back it up:

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

Ok so because Kimbrel's career isn't over we can't compare them? That has become the root of this entire thread. I understand that Mariano played 19 seasons.

...inning for inning, Kimbrel is starting out on pace or better than Rivera did.[/url]

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

Today Kimbrel is, arguably, not even the best this season, but doing better than Rivera.

Again I would like to remind you that I am not saying Mariano wasn't great. I am refuting the idea that "He's a once in a lifetime talent". The game is changing and Kimbrel is a sign of this.

I would also like to point out that your Altuve/Cobb comparison doesn't make any sense here. Altuve's .314 BA doesn't compare to Cobb's .370 BA over those 5 seasons. In essence Altuve has less hits in more chances. You can't even compare the two.

A better Cobb comparison would be like you saying Pete Rose is better than Cobb because he accumulated 65 more hits than Cobb over 24 seasons and ignoring the 528 extra games Rose played in. Cumulative stats, in and of themselves, are not good bench marks of a great player. Nor should they be the end all in comparing players.

I gave you legitimate stats to compare Kimbrel to Rivera with the given stats at this point in both of their careers. You are using emotion, straw men arguments, and the argument that "we can't compare current players to past players with high cumulative stats" in an attempt to delegitimize the facts as presented. I still propose inning for inning at this point in their career Kimbrel is very comprable to Rivera, and possibly better.

[packs]

You're the one with the parameter after parameter. I took 8 seasons of relief vs 8 seasons of relief and you said but this and but that. I don't think Altuve has anything in common with Cobb either, and that's my point vis a vis Kimbrel. You're taking a guy who has strung together some good seasons early on in his career and comparing him to an all time great where longevity factors heavily into people's perception of his ability.