Aaron Judge

[irv]

Originally Posted by orly57

I can't agree more Peter. I've been screaming this from the rooftops. "Aritificial scarcity" is the perfect way to describe it. This one is a1/1, but an identical card with a red dot is a 1/5, and so on. I can see where children fall for it, but adults? Really? I suppose they also believe that the company throws away the rest of the jersey after using one swatch on a 1/1. I've tried warning people, but they passionately defend it. The effort by packs to compare to t206 backs is clever, but it doesn't work. The backs were for advertising, not to have kids chase the rare backs as inserts, or to add value to the card. And like you Peter, I don't get the whole t206 back-chasing thing either.

I remember the first time I saw Aaron Judge, when his name was Kevin Maas. Another big problem with manufactured scarcity it that these guys are paying 3k for an Aaron Judge, while at least I only lost 10 bucks on my Kevin Maas or David Justice speculating. Remember the Canseco craze? His Donruss went up to a whopping $100. If Canseco were a young player today performing as he did early in his career, these guys would be dropping 5-figures on his cards! Here's the thing: hall of famers are rare. Common players are, well, far more common. There have been prospects since The beginning of baseball, and most prospects become common players. So keep dropping big bucks looking for the next mike trout if you want, but it's a bad idea.

Finally, this auto-craze is absurd. You know why Thurman Munson autos are worth more than DiMaggio or Ted Williams? Because what makes autos valuable is rarity! By the time mike trout retires, he will have signed a million baseball cards. Then he will sign 5 million more post-retirement. His auto will be more common than Pete Rose's auto. But rather than listening to experience, when I tell young collectors all of this, they scoff at me. They will learn the hard way.

You can choose to chase potential hall of famers at obscene prices if you want, but I suggest you spend that 3k on a guy who is already in the hall of fame. Spend it on a guy who is already a legend. Spend it on a guy whose cards will not continue to be produced at alarming rates. Spend it on a timeless card with historic value. That's my advice to you guys who buy the shiny new stuff.

Very well said!