Aaron Judge

[packs]

Originally Posted by irv

If I am not misunderstanding your question, it's not only the player but also the rarity of said cards/backs that make them worth what they are.

Something 1 of 1, or something very few people can obtain/own has and will alway carry a premium.

This isn't true either. There are many sets that are considered "rare" that aren't valuable at all. You need the audience combined with the rarity in order for something to get expensive. Bowman is the premier rookie card manufacturer and its cards will almost always be the most expensive rookie cards to obtain. There's no difference between modern Bowman auto rookies and T206 rare backs. You might say that the T206 companies didn't manufacture the backs to be rare or expensive, but Bowman isn't manufacturing it's cards to be expensive either. The market has decided they're expensive, just as they have the T206 backs. Panini and Leaf put out a million variations too but no one is willing to pay for them. Just putting a number on the card doesn't make it valuable. It being Bowman makes it valuable.

[irv]

Originally Posted by packs

This isn't true either. There are many sets that are considered "rare" that aren't valuable at all. You need the audience combined with the rarity in order for something to get expensive. Bowman is the premier rookie card manufacturer and its cards will almost always be the most expensive rookie cards to obtain. There's no difference between modern Bowman auto rookies and T206 rare backs. You might say that the T206 companies didn't manufacture the backs to be rare or expensive, but Bowman isn't manufacturing it's cards to be expensive either. The market has decided they're expensive, just as they have the T206 backs. Panini and Leaf put out a million variations too but no one is willing to pay for them. Just putting a number on the card doesn't make it valuable. It being Bowman makes it valuable.

If all that has been said in the thread didn't help you to understand, then I am at a loss on how to explain it further to you.

No disrespect. I'm just not good at explaining things I guess so I will leave that to other's who are.

[packs]

There's nothing you have to explain. A refractor is no different than an Uzit except that it has a little number on it. But that number isn't what makes the card expensive. The market makes it expensive. So saying that Uzit didn't know it was making valuable cards is a moot point, because the card is only made valuable by the market and people are only collecting the Uzit because it's different from the base Piedmont.

Also the argument that there are too many cards of players seems moot to me too. Ty Cobb has 4 T206 poses, plus the E90, T216, T215, T202, T205, E95, E93, etc. all released within the same three year span, some of them with the same pose. As much as things have changed, they remain the same.

[MattyC]

Packs, you are dropping some solid points here-- never saw it that way prior to your posts. An example that there is quality, insightful user content on the internet after all!

[Peter_Spaeth]

To me there is a big difference between being scarce as a result of the way history unfolded and being scarce by design to create demand. Just my two cents, even if it doesn't qualify for Matt's praise.

[packs]

How do you feel about high numbers then? Or SP's? Wouldn't a 52 high number or a 48 Leaf SP be an example of a manufactured scarcity? What about the 33 Goudey Lajoie?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

How do you feel about high numbers then? Or SP's? Wouldn't a 52 high number or a 48 Leaf SP be an example of a manufactured scarcity? What about the 33 Goudey Lajoie?

The Lajoie I think is the closest. 52T I don't think was short printed in order to create demand, I think they just dumped product because they couldn't sell it. High numbers in general I think it's the same, late in the season the demand just wasn't there. I am not that familiar with the story behind the Leaf SPs. If they were short printed to sell more product with set builders chasing them, then yeah that's similar.

[bn2cardz]

Today it is a business and back then it was as well. If you think they wouldn't have used refractor technology if they had it then I would point you to the t204. When new technology came about they used it.

If you don't believe there was "manufactured" scarcity I would just point you to the 1933/34 Goudey Lajoie as a prime example that there was. (I see this was pointed out before I got back to finishing this comment)

[irv]

Originally Posted by packs

There's nothing you have to explain. A refractor is no different than an Uzit except that it has a little number on it. But that number isn't what makes the card expensive. The market makes it expensive. So saying that Uzit didn't know it was making valuable cards is a moot point, because the card is only made valuable by the market and people are only collecting the Uzit because it's different from the base Piedmont.

Also the argument that there are too many cards of players seems moot to me too. Ty Cobb has 4 T206 poses, plus the E90, T216, T215, T202, T205, E95, E93, etc. all released within the same three year span, some of them with the same pose. As much as things have changed, they remain the same.

Well, although it seems moot to you, the fact remains that people are drawn to rarity/scarcity of HOF's who's card/pictures are hard to come by.
Judge has a ton of RC's. If he only had one or 2, then you would see those prices going through the roof, but, unlike Cobb, for example, people have a ton of other choices, especially if they cannot afford to obtain a true RC.

Also, Cobb is famous for various reasons, while Judge, for example is new and is just starting out. People have him in the hall already, lol, and many are speculating and the prices reflect that, but have him get injured and have a non HOF shortened career and he will be forgotten about as will his cards and what people once paid for them.

[packs]

My point was that Cobb also has a ton of cards issued of him at the same time in various sets, just as Judge does. I pointed out that Cobb has about 20 different cards in any three year stretch from 1909 to 1912, many of which are the same card put out by a different manufacturer. I was making a connection between how cards were issued in the past and how they continue to be issued the same way today.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

My point was that Cobb also has a ton of cards issued of him at the same time in various sets, just as Judge does. I pointed out that Cobb has about 20 different cards in any three year stretch from 1909 to 1912, many of which are the same card put out by a different manufacturer. I was making a connection between how cards were issued in the past and how they continue to be issued the same way today.

I bet there are 500-1000 Mike Trout cards on this planet for every vintage Cobb, already. And that may be low. No way of knowing that, just a guess.

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by packs

My point was that Cobb also has a ton of cards issued of him at the same time in various sets, just as Judge does. I pointed out that Cobb has about 20 different cards in any three year stretch from 1909 to 1912, many of which are the same card put out by a different manufacturer. I was making a connection between how cards were issued in the past and how they continue to be issued the same way today.

Agreed. Look at how many cards Mantle had. Ruth wasn't too shabby either in that department; I remember first learning of all his Goudeys, then the M101. Then the Oxford. The Frederick Foto. The Boston Store. Collins McCarthy. The different Caramels. Baltimore News. Strip cards. Headin' Home cards...

I got dizzy, yet then waded in, learned about the issues, decided what I liked and why, over time appreciating ones I slept on, and it's all good. So I don't look at a player having a plethora of issues as a pejorative thing. No one is forcing us to buy them all. As you said, the company can print what they want, yet the collectors ultimately set the demand.

Would I as one random collector prefer the streamlined era when there was one 1975 Brett from Topps and that was it? Personally, yeah, I am a minimalist by nature and abhor clutter. That said, I also like to collect/complete checklists, so that aspect of the modern landscape appeals to me and is fun.

[Peter_Spaeth]

758 Trout cards in PSA Master Set, 242 Mantle, and Trout of course is early in his career.

[MattyC]

Irv— perhaps I'm misreading your point, but who here is comparing Aaron Judge to Ty Cobb? The sheer premise is ludicrous.

Also, your logic— that someone who has a "non HOF" career will be "forgotten"— is pretty harsh and deeply flawed. There are plenty of players who did not make the hall and are beloved by their fans, plenty of numbers retired by teams that aren't in the HOF. It is not HOF or bust for the players, and it's not that way for their fans, either. Maybe for card value speculators, yet that's its own realm.

[irv]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Irv— perhaps I'm misreading your point, but who here is comparing Aaron Judge to Ty Cobb? The sheer premise is ludicrous.

Also, your logic— that someone who has a "non HOF" career will be "forgotten"— is pretty harsh and deeply flawed. There are plenty of players who did not make the hall and are beloved by their fans, plenty of numbers retired by teams that aren't in the HOF. It is not HOF or bust for the players, and it's not that way for their fans, either. Maybe for card value speculators, yet that's its own realm.

Well, because the original poster was wondering if Judge was a good investment, I figure it was a good choice to use his name as a comparison.

My other words were tongue in cheek so to speak as this is also a possibility whether it is Judge or another player. I know other players, such as Minoso, who is not in the HOF, is also popular, but his card prices pale in value compared to if he was.

Like Peter just said, Trout likely has 500-1000 cards for everyone available of Cobb.
That is how the market is, like it or not. 1 of 1's, refractors, etc, will never, imo, reach the levels price wise of Cobb, or anyone else for that matter, who is a HOF, whos cards/picture/memorabilia are rare and hard to come by.
Here is one article of many: http://www.cardboardconnection.com/w...-90s-worthless

[MattyC]

Irv, gotcha; I think we are therefore talking apples and oranges here, or more like apples and cars.

It seems you were talking about monetary value/investment, while I was talking about the sheer number of cards not being something inherently pejorative. In my opinion, so what if Trout has 758 cards? How is that something negative? Variety is the spice of life, LOL. Some guys settle down with one woman, some prefer many, no one's right or wrong. Just different styles. Back in the day there were fewer choices in the make of your car, or your phone carrier, where you got your news, what channel to watch on TV, etc. In this day and age, choice has exploded. That's neither good nor bad.