Top Graders' Compensation

[Yoda]

You are probably right. There can't be much glamor sitting at your cubicle mindlessly looking at cards of birds or something similar. I do recall that when Steve Rocci was head of PSA any real star card about to receive a high grade was automatically reviewed by 2 other graders for agreement. Don't know if that is still the case. Always thought Mike Baker was very solid and perhaps regrets being part of the GAI saga.

[pherbener]

I know it's been discussed before but I don't understand why a computer program can't be used to determine a grade. You would think it wouldn't be that hard to set up a system that could determine a grade without the subjectivity of a grader having a bad day, hungover, knowing high rolling collectors etc. The current system is fraught with opportunities for abuse and fraud.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by pherbener

I know it's been discussed before but I don't understand why a computer program can't be used to determine a grade. You would think it wouldn't be that hard to set up a system that could determine a grade without the subjectivity of a grader having a bad day, hungover, knowing high rolling collectors etc. The current system is fraught with opportunities for abuse and fraud.

That'll become standard practice within the next decade. I don't know of any job (including architect, novelist, surgeon, scientist) that can't be replaced by better-performing computers within the century. Grading a card is child's play.

[Corporal Lance Boil]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

That'll become standard practice within the next decade. I don't know of any job (including architect, novelist, surgeon, scientist) that can't be replaced by better-performing computers within the century. Grading a card is child's play.

I agree with your premise that card grading can be performed, or at least interact, with computers.

But I am curious how you think novelists, scientists, or surgeons will be replaced by computers? Architects I don't know, as that is straight mathematics, as best I can tell, but I am not an architect.

Tony Colacino

[trdcrdkid]

Originally Posted by Corporal Lance Boil

I agree with your premise that card grading can be performed, or at least interact, with computers.

But I am curious how you think novelists, scientists, or surgeons will be replaced by computers? Architects I don't know, as that is straight mathematics, as best I can tell, but I am not an architect.

Tony Colacino

Architecture is "straight mathematics"? I assume you must be confusing architects with building engineers or something. Architects design buildings; it's a creative field, like novelists or scientists, though they do have to know about building materials and physics and such.

[itjclarke]

Originally Posted by trdcrdkid

Architecture is "straight mathematics"? I assume you must be confusing architects with building engineers or something. Architects design buildings; it's a creative field, like novelists or scientists, though they do have to know about building materials and physics and such.

I have mixed feelings about AI, but its impact in medicine is already being seen. They (Watson and others like it) can keep completely up to date on all published medical journals, university studies/research, etc (thousands and thousands of pages). They in real can then time aid in a surgeon's decision making, potentially even during a procedure. I'd expect in the longer term, their hands may prove more steady and predictable than a human's, as well as that they can be sized and shaped to fit in tighter spaces.

Separately, AI in the legal world should be interesting given how much research, and/or document review could potentially be done instantaneously, as opposed to using paralegals, associates, etc, and the accompanying human hours.

[Collectorsince62]

Face it, a lot of grading is probably done to enhance the value of cards to be sold. Let's assume many graded cards hit the market soon after they leave the TPG. I worry that cards could be intentionally undergraded, the serial numbers noted, then monitored for sales on Ebay and the AH's. They get purchased by those who know the undergraded serial numbers, and the cards can be resubmitted for a bump.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Corporal Lance Boil

I agree with your premise that card grading can be performed, or at least interact, with computers.

But I am curious how you think novelists, scientists, or surgeons will be replaced by computers? Architects I don't know, as that is straight mathematics, as best I can tell, but I am not an architect.

Tony Colacino

Frank Lloyd Wright would like a word with you...

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by Corporal Lance Boil

I agree with your premise that card grading can be performed, or at least interact, with computers.

But I am curious how you think novelists, scientists, or surgeons will be replaced by computers? Architects I don't know, as that is straight mathematics, as best I can tell, but I am not an architect.

Tony Colacino

The creative processes are more complicated than,say, grading cards or harvesting corn, but we've already had computers passing the Turing test for many years, and I don't see anything qualitatively different between generating a new conversation in real time and generating a novel. Once you accept that there isn't anything magical about organic material, such as brains, it's just a question of how long it will take before AI is more advanced than humans in any particular domain. And that should take off pretty quickly (to say the least) once you have AI with the ability to make engineering improvements to itself.

The specific comments are mine, but the general idea is the same as what Nick Bostrom and others have been saying for years. The Sam Harris TED talk from last year is a good synopsis.

[drcy]

I don't believe AI has yet to pass the Turing test.

AI/cognitive science is a pet area of mine: A Few Notes on Artificial Intelligence

For the record, I don't think computers could practically grade cards on their own. As an aid to humans I could imagine. And, if they could, it would still be humanly subjective, because humans would still decide (and endlessly debate amongst themselves) what qualities and quantities and in what ratio are essential for a grade.

[itjclarke]

Originally Posted by pherbener

The current system is fraught with opportunities for abuse and fraud.

I have thought about this a lot over the past couple years. Of course, I am not saying it happens, nor do I know their internal submission/grading SOP well enough to know how hard it would be to execute. However, in theory, a few graders in cahoots with a few submitters could make 6, even 7 figure profits by buying and bumping 8s to 9s, 9s to 10s, etc. At those higher levels, the increase in value is nearly exponential. Doubt there's anyway a TPG could ever compensate its graders well enough to offset the temptation of potential monies earned through a scam like this.

I'd hope their chain of custody on any submissions (regardless of the submitters) is totally anonymous and that any card that receives a 10 would need to pass inspection by several graders, thus making this scam more difficult to execute.

[Mdmtx]

I often wonder why obviously extremely low graded 50's commons exist. Doesn't make any financial sense. Maybe, just maybe, those are submitted with a group as a tell of who submitted. As example

Submitter: hey billy bob, I just sent a group of 50's in. You can tell which ones are mine because there is a dog eared paper missing 51 bowman paul Richards in there.
Grader: thanks slick. If I keep the grades up a full point, can I get the trip to Hawaii and the 5k?
Submitter: you bet. Just nothing below 7.5.
Grader: you re the best!

No knowledge, no smoking gun, just conjecture.

Mark Medlin

[ooo-ribay]

I think they throw darts at a board.

[gemmint77]

My guess these "expert graders" make $12-14 bucks an hour and could care less.

[Rich Klein]

I don't know (or care) what the Beckett graders make but many of them have been there nearly 20 years now and I will assure you that they do care about getting the correct grades on a card

Now, and this is not to pick on Beckett but I saw an absolutely ugly BGS 7.5 86 Fleer Jordan at my show this weekend. If Nate or Kyle wants to take a scan of that card and post it to the board, you can see why my untrained eye would have given that card a 2 at best.

I will wager whomever graded that card will look at the card in the slab and be very upset at the grade that is assigned.

Rich