How do you see the market 10yrs from now

[Johnny630]

If I was into this hobby only for long term growth on my investments this is how I would see things over the next few years. With interest rates rising It is my opinion that the ultra rich big money players will be putting their money back into treasuries and away from high end 8/9 post war cards. I'm not chasing any cards right now unlesss it happens to be a Mantle.

[Exhibitman]

To the extent that the wealthy are into cards it isn't to beat interest rates, it is as a fun alternate asset play. Something to enjoy like art. Rich people don't sell the family Picasso for pocket money. What is most likely in a downturn is the same thing as has happened in every downturn. Marquee cards stagnate or fall moderately and meat and potatoes basics fall pretty hard because the guys who buy vg Topps cards for their sets are the ones who take it on the chin in a downturn. One thing I do expect in the next downturn is a significant drop in the mainstream cards that have been run up so much in the last year or two. The stuff with a regular heavy supply on eBay and auctions. The PSA 7-8 and even some 9s for guys who aren't Aaron Ruth Mantle etc.

[Neal]

What will the collector base look like in 10 years? Will it largely be the current crop today, or will there be an influx? Todays 10-12 year old will be getting out of college, and todays 21 year old may never have been a collector to the extent that we once were.

The hobby has been an adult game for many, many years now.

In my opinion, the demand for many rare, obscure prewar cards is going to be mediocre at best.

[ZiggerZagger]

Agree with a lot of what's been said. In the big picture, it's clear that we've already enjoyed the major bump in interest and maturation of the hobby associated with TPG. I believe Coin collecting enjoyed much the same in the earlier 2000's.

It's also pretty clear that we're now on the back end of the accelerated interest in higher-end Post-War cards. Prices have been dropping to a level just a bit higher than before the run-up. There was clearly some undervaluation in that market, but what happened was unsustainable. POP's are not truly limited for most Post-War 8's and above when compared with Pre-War, and whenever middle class investors become well and truly priced out of a market it just can't be a good thing.
The collectors who are in it "for life" (like most of us) have the advantage here. We're happy to sit on the sidelines waiting for any fever to die down, and for speculators to pull up stakes and cash out of the hobby -- We'll buy at a lower prices when they do.

I've been wondering if this small boom was the perfect storm of a very good Economy along with the Boomers reaching the peak of their financial powers? Sprinkle in some Speculators, some feelings of Nostalgia, and you get some mad prices.

So my best guess given all this is Short Term continued weakening of prices on the Post-War cards involved in the run-up (RC's of Rose, Clemente, Koufax, etc.). That should also include the 5's, 6's and 7's that got inflated in the run-up as well.
Medium to Long term, continued gradual appreciation across a wide range of key Post-War cards with intrinsic appeal to collectors. Pre-War to do it's thing, puttering along with solid performance -- maybe some room for faster appreciation with certain players.
Maybe '70's Baseball and Hockey/FB/BB to get some love, too.

I would be amazed to see another run on prices in the next 5-10 years like we saw in the past 2 years.

[Jdoggs]

Ruth and Mantle safest investments. Post war rookies such as Aaron, Koufax, Clemente more risky as their PSA 8 rookies have already decreased by half in value compared to their highs last summer.