Aaron Judge

[WillBBC]

Dunn 2.0 would be a great player! Being in NY will only help and I hope he can cut down on the strikeouts but I can't remember a guy his size ever having great success in MLB. If he shortens his swing and can learn to take walks he will be a stud.

[RayBShotz]

Michael Conforto has a better shot at the moment (Mets).

[D. Bergin]

Maybe he will surprise me, but I don't rate him highly at all. As a Yankee fan I'd be ecstatic if he projects out to a Richie Sexson type, but I think that's pushing the boundries of expectations, and that certainly doesn't map out as a player to "invest" in.

[packs]

I tend to agree with you. I just don't think he'll develop the ability to walk which really puts pressure on him to hit 30 plus homers a year. Even if he is able to do that we all saw Chris Carter nearly go to Japan due to lack of interest.

[D. Bergin]

It's not like Judge has put up mind-blowing stats in the minor leagues. Not sure how pretty good minor league hitter maps out to Superstar major league potential. It's not like he's just out of High School either. He's pushing 25 already.

He's about 8 months younger then Mike Trout.

[packs]

Yeah I mean max potential would be a Giancarlo Stanton type but Stanton hit 39 homers as an 18 year old. Judge never did anything like that while being much older and having the benefit of college ball.

[bigfanNY]

yeah I agree with most here and would not go heavy on Judge but Sanchez on the other hand? maybe ....maybe..

[poytor]

Frank Howard was 6-7, he had a decent career, 1960 AL ROY, and won a ring with the 63 Dodgers.

[Rich Klein]

Simplest Judge investment advice:

Short term, sure fine go for it and flip those cards

Long term: doubtful based on baseball history. Probably too late of a start (age 25) for the HOF.

This would all change is somehow he hit 71 homers in a season without steroids or the Yankees win a couple of World Series with him as the key player.

To me, he's a better Dave Kingman or as noted Frank Howard.

Rich

[packs]

I beg to differ. Judge is hitting 332 right now. Kingman never sniffed anywhere close to 300. Howard I think is closer, but again he never dominated the league in the types of categories Judge is. He leads the AL in runs, home runs, rbi's, total bases, on base, slugging, OPS, and walks.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by packs

I beg to differ. Judge is hitting 332 right now. Kingman never sniffed anywhere close to 300. Howard I think is closer, but again he never dominated the league in the types of categories Judge is. He leads the AL in runs, home runs, rbi's, total bases, on base, slugging, OPS, and walks.

I think I just heard Babe Ruth roll over in his grave.

[D. Bergin]

Frank Howard is a decent comparison. He won ROY at age 23, but had his real breakout year at age 25. Judge walks more (and also strikes out more), at this point in his career, but Howard built his Walk numbers up as his career went on.

I would guess Judges batting average will eventually fall in line to around Howards levels as his career goes on. I have a feeling he's having a Norm Cash like outlier year, as far as his B.A. goes.. I think Frank Howard is a much more realistic goal for him then Miguel Cabrera.

No shame in that. Frank had some fantastic years.

[chaddurbin]

if yankees make playoffs i'd keep your judges until october, if not sell by september. could just be a huge outlier year, his age and minor league track record suggest a solid OF with power, not barry bonds with the cream and clear. but he is playing in NY, for the yankees, so of course he's the second coming and better than slice bread. i expect him to settle down just like betts and lindor...fine solid players but probably not the superstars and #1 prospects. unless you're a freak like trout, some you just see coming for awhile and hear the hype like harper and correa.

we got our own "judge" out here in cody bellinger, and he plays late at night so doesn't get the same hype...but he's 4 years younger with a sweet swing. of course my concern is he gets homer-happy and goes the way of joc pederson, or he can learn and adjust and be corey seager with massive power.

[Rich Klein]

In terms of long term investing, 21 is a good age to give a shot for. 25 not so much

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

I beg to differ. Judge is hitting 332 right now. Kingman never sniffed anywhere close to 300. Howard I think is closer, but again he never dominated the league in the types of categories Judge is. He leads the AL in runs, home runs, rbi's, total bases, on base, slugging, OPS, and walks.

.288 in 1979. Some would call that close.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

Simplest Judge investment advice:

Short term, sure fine go for it and flip those cards

Long term: doubtful based on baseball history. Probably too late of a start (age 25) for the HOF.

This would all change is somehow he hit 71 homers in a season without steroids or the Yankees win a couple of World Series with him as the key player.

To me, he's a better Dave Kingman or as noted Frank Howard.

Rich

Rich, with all due respect, I think the PED genie is one you never, ever get back in the bottle with the current salary levels. Does anyone really think Starling Marte was the only one taking Nandrolone? My bet is that an effective masking agent was developed, which Marte thought he was getting, but someone sold him a bill of goods instead. I don't think we will ever know for certain who is or has been using PED's. I separate baseball history into two eras in this regard: pre-1985 and post-1985, but without any real prejudice--the PED era simply represents the conditions under which the game has and IMHO IS being played. I, for one, really enjoyed seeing Mark McGwire play. Just don't try to directly compare the two or players from different eras. That's simply apples and oranges.

Regards,

Larry