Prices coming down...

[Jobu]

Just for fun, let's see the chart for the green T206 Cobb.

[sreader3]

Thanks for the charts Peter. Very informative. Looks to me like a healthy market with modest appreciation has returned after a Hunt brothers-type spike.

https://www.buyandhold.com/bh/en/edu...hunt_bros.html

[MattyC]

Unfortunately some Ruths (e121, Goudeys, a few other more obscure issues), T206 classics (i,e,m Wajo portrait, Cobb portraits), and others were also manipulation targets, with varying degrees of success. The occasional mercenary *@#$ who tries to use sportscards to make some fast money isn't picky about the side of WWII on which he plays his games.

One additional observation is that while the higher pop card offers a "dumper" more opportunities to sell at an inflated price, the problem with the rarer cards is that manipulation can last longer, since fewer come up for sale to eventually "outlast" the manipulation.

[irv]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Look at the bids at Heritage on the auction closing tonight and then tell me the sky is falling.

No kidding!

It still blows me away what people pay for the bidders premium.

$30, $40, $50g's+ seems to be the norm for these high end auctions.
https://sports.ha.com/c/search-resul...73015-interior

[iowadoc77]

Originally Posted by irv

No kidding!

It still blows me away what people pay for the bidders premium.

$30, $40, $50g's+ seems to be the norm for these high end auctions.
https://sports.ha.com/c/search-resul...73015-interior

Very true. Lots of people still seem to have lots of disposable income. Sheesh

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by irv

No kidding!

It still blows me away what people pay for the bidders premium.

$30, $40, $50g's+ seems to be the norm for these high end auctions.
https://sports.ha.com/c/search-resul...73015-interior

what about what the sellers are willing to give up potentially. However if noone wanted the cards at the prices they wanted in a direct deal they have no other choice really if they want to sell the card. Easy to say on a 100k card with BP why did the seller give up 5-20k but if he couldnt sell the card for 80-85k lets say, in the private market.what else he he supposed to do...

[orly57]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Unfortunately some Ruths (e121, Goudeys, a few other more obscure issues), T206 classics (i,e,m Wajo portrait, Cobb portraits), and others were also manipulation targets, with varying degrees of success. The occasional mercenary *@#$ who tries to use sportscards to make some fast money isn't picky about the side of WWII on which he plays his games.

One additional observation is that while the higher pop card offers a "dumper" more opportunities to sell at an inflated price, the problem with the rarer cards is that manipulation can last longer, since fewer come up for sale to eventually "outlast" the manipulation.

Just because some cards that were previously undervalued (like some of the ones you mention) went up in value, I don't think they were necessarily manipulated. There is a genuine high demand on all Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig cards. I think the high grade 50's and 60's rookies were the real targets here. If you find any Ruth, Gehrig, or Cobb's that have gone down in value, let me know so I can buy them. I think it is possible that when we saw the 50's cards getting manipulated, we bought pre-war at a premium for fear that they would explode next. Doesn't mean that they were manipulated.

[MattyC]

Orlando, the manipulators will try and play their game with cards that collectors generally perceive as undervalued; that is what allows the hustle to succeed, because it is very hard for anyone on the "outside" to parse manipulation from overdue appreciation for such cards. No question and I agree that there is some genuine appreciation out there, alongside the other kind. I also agree that there was some appreciation in value on some cards that were bought thinking they could explode next, so get'em now; that is a great point, and it makes those premiums paid "fruit of the poisonous tree," to some extent.

As to your question, yes, I can point one out for you to buy: the e121 Ruth in PSA 3 grade. Per VCP, the card was a 5k to 7k card— then out of nowhere it hits 22.8k. As to the cause for one anomalous sale of any card, could be any one or more of a number of factors, many legitimate, some not— from pent up demand, to the perfect storm of buyers, to a fake sale or manipulation attempt.

There have been three successive sales since in the same grade, and each has declined, from 16.4k, to 14.7k, to 12.7k.

The good news I would imagine is that most of us collect for love of the sport and love of cards, and in terms of daily happiness in life those things far outshine the Sturm und Drang that comes when the focus shifts to money.

[orly57]

You got me. As I was typing, the e121 Ruth came to mind as the one example. I agree on that one. I would argue that it is still higher now than it was before though. Sometimes the manipulation makes us realize just how awesome and undervalued a card is and the value still evens out higher than it was before. We finally pull the trigger on a card we always wanted after realizing it almost flew out of our wheelhouse.

[BobbyVCP]

Just have to chime in and say those graphs on VCP are very nice....

[Andrew1975]

While I agree, generally, with your analysis of the recent E121 Ruth pricing, I would add that the notion of "buying the card, not the holder", is perhaps even more important when looking at lower graded cards. Based upon VCP images, it looks like the card that sold for 12.7k has some paper loss front/center of the card (overgraded?). If anyone has for sale or knows of a nicely centered, PSA 3 - E121 Ruth (with no paper loss) for 12.7k, please let me know!

I'll add that I recently purchased an SGC 3 - E121 Ruth, with good eye appeal (in my opinion), and paid in between the low and high figures mentioned. With that said, I am a collector, and not a flipper, with no intentions of selling the card. Short term, if I did want to sell it, I'm not sure that I could get back what I paid for it.

Regards,

Andrew

Originally Posted by MattyC

Orlando, the manipulators will try and play their game with cards that collectors generally perceive as undervalued; that is what allows the hustle to succeed, because it is very hard for anyone on the "outside" to parse manipulation from overdue appreciation for such cards. No question and I agree that there is some genuine appreciation out there, alongside the other kind. I also agree that there was some appreciation in value on some cards that were bought thinking they could explode next, so get'em now; that is a great point, and it makes those premiums paid "fruit of the poisonous tree," to some extent.

As to your question, yes, I can point one out for you to buy: the e121 Ruth in PSA 3 grade. Per VCP, the card was a 5k to 7k card— then out of nowhere it hits 22.8k. As to the cause for one anomalous sale of any card, could be any one or more of a number of factors, many legitimate, some not— from pent up demand, to the perfect storm of buyers, to a fake sale or manipulation attempt.

There have been three successive sales since in the same grade, and each has declined, from 16.4k, to 14.7k, to 12.7k.

The good news I would imagine is that most of us collect for love of the sport and love of cards, and in terms of daily happiness in life those things far outshine the Sturm und Drang that comes when the focus shifts to money.

[glchen]

Anyone selling a decent looking E121 Ruth in PSA or SGC 3 for $12K, please PM me. I'm looking for one also.