I'd love everyone's thoughts. Here's what happened.

[CMIZ5290]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Probstein has about 400,000 positive feedbacks. 14,000 in the last month alone. 78,000 in 6 mos. Often does 1000s of sales a day.

I think it's reasonable to assume that he has studied everyone's in the hobbys collecting habits, carefully evaluated what they are looking for, evaluated what the range of their potential bids are based on the condition of what they are looking for, and then deputized someone (or maybe more than one person) to shill bid to screw that person over. Yep, all 40,000 of the items he is currently selling he has done this analysis for.

Seems very reasonable. While this level of due diligence far surpasses anything our IRS of CIA is capable of doing, I wouldn't put it by this guy.

Seems a little ridiculous to believe this, no?

Steve, Very fair analysis, but even if true, Probstein could care less about what people think. I actually stuck up for him several years ago on N54, I absolutely regret it to this day.. To him, it's a numbers game, he doesn't give a damn about what people think personally. I first did business with him about 12 years ago when he was somewhat humble and unknown. Good luck with that now, and shame on Ebay for being such a coward over business versus business ethics..

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by CMIZ5290

Steve, Very fair analysis, but even if true, Probstein could care less about what people think. I actually stuck up for him several years ago on N54, I absolutely regret it to this day.. To him, it's a numbers game, he doesn't give a damn about what people think personally. I first did business with him about 11 years ago when he was somewhat humble and unknown. Good luck with that now, and shame on Ebay for being such a coward over business versus business ethics..

I'm not defending him, never really dealt with him other than maybe 1 or 2 sales, but the level of paranoia that a guy selling thousands of items in a day is shilling every auction based on his understanding of the limits of certain bidders is really a little nuts.

Shilling is not without risks. . . . you end up paying ebay charges either way, and then presumably either end up with the item (and have to sell it again with more fees) or have to buy it back from someone doing you a favor. Seems like the economic costs of widespread shilling falling through might not be worth the time and money of someone selling this kind of insane volume, but maybe I'm missing something obvious.

(Now whether shilling makes sense with a high ticket item, like a 52 Mantle or a 49 Jackie Leaf or Paige, is probably a separate discussion.)

[Dpeck100]

You can't get shilled with a snipe. LOL

Tons of final bids are shill bids. Open your eyes.

If the auctions are staggered this is when you can really get hammered. Probstein123 a lot of times has them end at the same time and it is a little safer as the risk of winning goes up but through PWCC they end in many cases 30 seconds apart and as soon as the first auction goes off the shill sees where your at and bam they have got you at higher prices on them all.

The notion that shill bidding only is done through string bidding or chip bidding or whatever you want to call it is flat out comical. The two most dangerous are the high opening bid or hidden reserve and the nuclear snipe.

[CMIZ5290]

David, Just curious, do you have stock in Mr. Big's Company?

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by CMIZ5290

David, Just curious, do you have stock in Mr. Big's Company?

No.

[Dpeck100]

One of the primary reasons you see so many less auctions is they are risky and stressful to run. With over 30% of final bids coming in the final minute you can see an item go from $5 to $150 or from $5 to $12. I have never consigned a card and have only run my own auctions and you can give stuff away if a few snipes don't come in. Hence one of the reasons shills come at the end. Not to mention they blend in with the crowd. I rarely run auctions anymore myself as I would rather control my selling price. Both of these sellers run so many listings it's impossible to police. I think a lot of times people accuse Rick of shilling the auctions and I would bet a good number of them he doesn't even know are going. I have monitored and participated in thousands of auctions and if someone isn't willing to let the item go cheap they are going to try and get you. Period.

[CMIZ5290]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

One of the primary reasons you see so many less auctions is they are risky and stressful to run. With over 30% of final bids coming in the final minute you can see an item go from $5 to $150 or from $5 to $12. I have never consigned a card and have only run my own auctions and you can give stuff away if a few snipes don't come in. Hence one of the reasons shills come at the end. Not to mention they blend in with the crowd. I rarely run auctions anymore myself as I would rather control my selling price. Both of these sellers run so many listings it's impossible to police. I think a lot of times people accuse Rick of shilling the auctions and I would bet a good number of them he doesn't even know are going. I have monitored and participated in thousands of auctions and if someone isn't willing to let the item go cheap they are going to try and get you. Period.

Mr. Big would be proud....

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

You can't get shilled with a snipe. LOL

Tons of final bids are shill bids. Open your eyes.

If the auctions are staggered this is when you can really get hammered. Probstein123 a lot of times has them end at the same time and it is a little safer as the risk of winning goes up but through PWCC they end in many cases 30 seconds apart and as soon as the first auction goes off the shill sees where your at and bam they have got you at higher prices on them all.

The notion that shill bidding only is done through string bidding or chip bidding or whatever you want to call it is flat out comical. The two most dangerous are the high opening bid or hidden reserve and the nuclear snipe.

If your snipe is in 30 seconds before the end it's not a snipe, that's a bid.

I have no bids on anything other than the opening if there isn't one to keep a seller from making an off site sale. I bid at 4 seconds with what I will pay. No one knows what I am bidding on till the auction is over and the screen refreshes.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by JustinD

If your snipe is in 30 seconds before the end it's not a snipe, that's a bid.

I have no bids on anything other than the opening if there isn't one to keep a seller from making an off site sale. I bid at 4 seconds with what I will pay. No one knows what I am bidding on till the auction is over and the screen refreshes.

Many people who own cards and consign them using sniping software to purchase cards. It is only natural for them to use sniping software to "re buy" them if they must.

Just imagine an auction with 60 seconds to go is at $57. Your snipe is all set to go off at $335. You really don't want to pay that much but will if you must. With 15 seconds to go the item bumps a little to $87. Bamm the final hammer is $318 and your the winner. You look at the bids and see that the under bidder looks fishy and then there is a gap from $151 to $315 and then your final bid. You just got shilled and not for a few bucks but for $167.

The first expensive card I purchased when I was back in the hobby this happened to me. Not because of shenanigans on the sellers part but a member on CU who wanted to stick it to me. They did and bragged about it on another message board and I got hip to how this happens. In fairness my bid wasn't a snipe but it didn't matter it was in there when his snipe triggered and he got me for $500. You live and you learn that all that matters is what you bid because if anyone else bids that high that is where the price is going.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

Many people who own cards and consign them using sniping software to purchase cards. It is only natural for them to use sniping software to "re buy" them if they must.

Just imagine an auction with 60 seconds to go is at $57. Your snipe is all set to go off at $335. You really don't want to pay that much but will if you must. With 15 seconds to go the item bumps a little to $87. Bamm the final hammer is $318 and your the winner. You look at the bids and see that the under bidder looks fishy and then there is a gap from $151 to $315 and then your final bid. You just got shilled and not for a few bucks but for $167.

The first expensive card I purchased when I was back in the hobby this happened to me. Not because of shenanigans on the sellers part but a member on CU who wanted to stick it to me. They did and bragged about it on another message board and I got hip to how this happens. In fairness my bid wasn't a snipe but it didn't matter it was in there when his snipe triggered and he got me for $500. You live and you learn that all that matters is what you bid because if anyone else bids that high that is where the price is going.

I could see this possibility in a auction that a seller has an absolute bottom they are not willing to go to and are using a snipe or bid as hidden reserve. However, not all auctions end with a buyer using a nuclear snipe, likely not many.

A consigner using this would purchase many of his cards back or get numerous NPB's. I won't say this is incredibly uncommon because there are many cards that come back to eBay after what is likely a non payment. I don't think this is any regularity on sub 1000 dollar cards. It would have a huge failure rate.

Shilling is far more common in the weeks and days prior to the end as it is so easy to string bid to find a top for someone's bid and withdraw if you accidentally go over. A bid can not be withdrawn without seller permission less than 12 hours from the end per eBay rules.

As for the CU experience, that seems crappy but a rude one-off by a jerk. Was this a possible situation that you exposed you were going all in on card in a post before the end? He had to know you were throwing the kitchen sink at it or he would have just bought it from under you on accident.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by JustinD

I could see this possibility in a auction that a seller has an absolute bottom they are not willing to go to and are using a snipe or bid as hidden reserve. However, not all auctions end with a buyer using a nuclear snipe, likely not many.

A consigner using this would purchase many of his cards back or get numerous NPB's. I won't say this is incredibly uncommon because there are many cards that come back to eBay after what is likely a non payment. I don't think this is any regularity on sub 1000 dollar cards. It would have a huge failure rate.

Shilling is far more common in the weeks and days prior to the end as it is so easy to string bid to find a top for someone's bid and withdraw if you accidentally go over. A bid can not be withdrawn without seller permission less than 12 hours from the end per eBay rules.

As for the CU experience, that seems crappy but a rude one-off by a jerk. Was this a possible situation that you exposed you were going all in on card in a post before the end? He had to know you were throwing the kitchen sink at it or he would have just bought it from under you on accident.

I showed my hand. That said it was pretty intuitive of the guy to go as high as he did. Thankfully I bought another copy of the card in a 10 a few months later for less than half and then a few years later it zoomed passed my inflated purchase price and the dollar cost averaging method worked.

My point on this is simply even had a sniped our bids would have collided at a much higher price point than the pack. No timing of it mattered. The lesson if there is one is don't bring attention to auctions or cards you are buying until after the fact. My situation was a little unique in that sense and in the end it worked out just fine.

The bottom line is what I am telling you is happening all of the time. There are a multitude of auctions going off monthly with very sketchy looking bid history and it isn't just the string bidders. I have used every bidding method possible. At the end of the day if an item is wanted by others and is listed in an auction the most important factor is what the other bids are not when they are placed.

You see in many cases the same cards coming back to market time and time again. I am in a much smaller niche market but trust me I know when I am bidding against the house. Put a bunch of active auctions on your watch list and study the times the bids are placed, the retractions, the percentage of bids and the categories the bidders are placing bids on. What I am saying will make a lot more sense. If someone ever feels like they are being shilled just use the dollar triple stack and it works like a charm. The greed will get them and you are in the clear.