any guess on how many 52 mantles exist??

[1952boyntoncollector]

the real question is how many 'psa7-8' level ungraded copies are there out there.

paying 7000 for a card and there being 50 more of them out there is one thing

but paying 150k-400k and finding out there are 50 more more of them like that out there is another

[bswhiten]

My dad had three 52 Mantles and tossed them in college. That should help the calculation

[BearBailey]

There are thousands of mantles out there, if you go to any big show you still see plenty of them although in the past few years I do feel they are lower grade than in the past. 52 topps mantle has always been a supply side issue, too much demand and not enough supply. Most people I know who have mantles got them all before grading was common, and none of them have gotten them graded.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by BearBailey

There are thousands of mantles out there, if you go to any big show you still see plenty of them although in the past few years I do feel they are lower grade than in the past. 52 topps mantle has always been a supply side issue, too much demand and not enough supply. Most people I know who have mantles got them all before grading was common, and none of them have gotten them graded.

But how many upgraded ones do you see? We know how many are graded, but we don't know how many have been regraded. I think that it is one of the most regraded cards in the hobby. The value of the card plus the value added by a bump make the cost of regrading small.

The 1952 high numbers are scarce and went to very few parts of the country. I just don't see there being many unknown copies out there and I doubt that there are many high graded ones upgraded.

[Hot Springs Bathers]

I live in a town of under 50,000 and have been collecting since the early 1970s. I know of three gentlemen here in town that own 1952 Topps Mantles and none of these fellows are collectors.

Decades ago I posted ads wanting to buy cards which met with little success but on one occasion I was asked to look at one of these fellows childhood collection. Many 52s including a Mantle. Over the years through my baseball history research people have brought their cards to me to ask what they are worth. Thus the other two Mantles. None are graded, one resides in a top holder the other two in plastic sheets.

If my average sized southern town has three ungraded that I know of there must be thousands out there nationwide. I think the number of ungraded will dwindle when these are passed to heirs who discover their value. All three of these men know the approximate value and could care less. They belong to their youth and have tremendous sentimental value.

[brian1961]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

the real question is how many 'psa7-8' level ungraded copies are there out there.

paying 7000 for a card and there being 50 more of them out there is one thing

but paying 150k-400k and finding out there are 50 more more of them like that out there is another

It seems to me Jake has identified the most crucial question in this discussion. There might be "a ton" of ungraded 1952 Topps Mantles, but come on, do you really think their technical grades would come out that high? Remember all those stories you've heard in your life about someone saying, "I'm sure it will grade MINT, or at the very least "NEAR MINT - MINT". Then it's graded by PSA or SGC and ....

Not to re-route this discussion one whit, but there was the most staggering exception that occurred some time last year. PSA's Joe Orlando put up a scan in his "Joe's Tweets" of a card that had just come through their grading mill---the second PSA 10 GEM MINT 1953 Topps #82 Mickey Mantle. To think that significant card had been a heretofore unique 1 of 1 for over 20 years, and now a still minuscule 1 of 2. The pair are nevertheless extremely valuable, and with a POP of only 2 at that level, the price point is still stratospheric. Be that as it may, I would imagine when the owner of the first '53 Gem Mint Mick saw Joe's Tweet, it was not "sweet" news to him.

Even the most crusty dinosaurs who have a "nice" ungraded '52 Topps Mickey will have had to have noticed the boo coo bucks being earned by other owners of said card ALL involved professionally-graded specimens. If they refuse to acknowledge the obvious, let's hope for their sake they do not wait until death or dementia overtakes them. At least with the Lucky 7 Ty Cobb find, there was a very happy ending for the family of the original owner of the cards. "Twas not always the case ....

---Brian Powell

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by brian1961

It seems to me Jake has identified the most crucial question in this discussion. There might be "a ton" of ungraded 1952 Topps Mantles, but come on, do you really think their technical grades would come out that high? Remember all those stories you've heard in your life about someone saying, "I'm sure it will grade MINT, or at the very least "NEAR MINT - MINT". Then it's graded by PSA or SGC and ....

Not to re-route this discussion one whit, but there was the most staggering exception that occurred some time last year. PSA's Joe Orlando put up a scan in his "Joe's Tweets" of a card that had just come through their grading mill---the second PSA 10 GEM MINT 1953 Topps #82 Mickey Mantle. To think that significant card had been a heretofore unique 1 of 1 for over 20 years, and now a still minuscule 1 of 2. The pair are nevertheless extremely valuable, and with a POP of only 2 at that level, the price point is still stratospheric. Be that as it may, I would imagine when the owner of the first '53 Gem Mint Mick saw Joe's Tweet, it was not "sweet" news to him.

Even the most crusty dinosaurs who have a "nice" ungraded '52 Topps Mickey will have had to have noticed the boo coo bucks being earned by other owners of said card ALL involved professionally-graded specimens. If they refuse to acknowledge the obvious, let's hope for their sake they do not wait until death or dementia overtakes them. At least with the Lucky 7 Ty Cobb find, there was a very happy ending for the family of the original owner of the cards. "Twas not always the case ....

---Brian Powell

Another issue is if your house burns down, its a heck of a lot easier to prove the value of a PSA graded psa 7 card versus a card you are saying 'is mint' to the insurance company. You would think at least for insurance reasons the card would get graded especially if its a high end card..

[mrvster]

might be 2x more ungraded than graded....

assuming there are almost 1700 graded examples, less regraded, maybe 1500 true graded examples....


1500x2=3000+ 1500=4500??


4500????????? total left out there graded and ungraded??????

[mrvster]

1700-4500????

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by brian1961

It seems to me Jake has identified the most crucial question in this discussion. There might be "a ton" of ungraded 1952 Topps Mantles, but come on, do you really think their technical grades would come out that high? Remember all those stories you've heard in your life about someone saying, "I'm sure it will grade MINT, or at the very least "NEAR MINT - MINT". Then it's graded by PSA or SGC and ....

I think my stance on that was pretty clear in post 12 when I put -

"I have a different opinion than most, but I do not feel the Mantle is rare at all other than in pristine form."

Yes, in pristine it's crazy rare, but still not as rare as tons of other cards like Rutherford. There are only three 10's, but there are still 10s. I think those owners are likely all high level collectors that got them from the Mr. Mint find already brought up. I doubt there are many, if any, 9 or 10s in non-collector hands. Maybe an attic find someday like black swamp, but it's pretty unlikely. The hidden cards are likely low or mid grades that were purchased or well played with years ago.

My point is that if at any time between Ebay, shops and auction houses (and even leon's on this site) I can find 40+ examples daily. How can that be a rare card unless every one is selling theirs every two weeks? Even throwing the large number of cards being sold daily to the wind, there are still more PSA 10's of Mantle than every other card in the set.

[midmo]

There's still tons of raw stuff out there. How much, who knows. I have a friend with a pretty nice 52 Mantle that has had it since the 70's, ungraded and doesn't need to sell it. There are still plenty of old school set collectors with cards in binders. I don't have the 52 set, but I do have nice 53, 54 and 56 sets in binders with no desire to grade them. A co-worker once brought in a shoebox of Leaf cards to show me (multiple Ruths, Robinsons, Williams, Musials, etc.) that he inherited from his grandpa. They were sentimental to him so he didn't want to sell any. I know a local show dealer that sells only raw cards (pre-war to 50's). He doesn't like computers so I guess all his inventory is "unknown to the hobby". These examples are just in my little bubble so there has to be a lot more out there...

[brian1961]

Originally Posted by JustinD

Yes, in pristine it's crazy rare, but still not as rare as tons of other cards like Rutherford. There are only three 10's, but there are still 10s. I think those owners are likely all high level collectors that got them from the Mr. Mint find already brought up. I doubt there are many, if any, 9 or 10s in non-collector hands. Maybe an attic find someday like black swamp, but it's pretty unlikely. The hidden cards are likely low or mid grades that were purchased or well played with years ago.

My point is that if at any time between Ebay, shops and auction houses (and even leon's on this site) I can find 40+ examples daily. How can that be a rare card unless every one is selling theirs every two weeks? Even throwing the large number of cards being sold daily to the wind, there are still more PSA 10's of Mantle than every other card in the set.

I know the OP concerns a guess as to how many 52 Topps Mantles exist. You speak well that in pristine it's crazy rare, but your thrust focuses on the idea the card is not "rare". Threads and in-person "discussions" have taken place on this matter for decades. The arguments were hot and heavy:

It's a double-printed card.

It should not be worth more than the real rookie, the '51 Bowman.

It's not like Mantle was that good; a bunch of guys have hit more home runs than Mantle. If he'd taken better care of himself, the big dummy, ....

I need not remind what the first post-war card was to sell at a public auction for 7 figures? Yes, most of us don't know about the private sales. Maybe the '51 Bowman PSA 10 did transact for seven figures first. But what does it matter now? A PSA 8.5 1952 Topps Mantle sold for over 7 figures.

Amazing.

This talk about Rutherford's rarity is pointless. I know Johnny played for the Brooks, but beyond that, his card is pure common. The hobby has changed, because the price point of ultra-high grade examples from '52 Topps has made collecting that set impossible for all but a very, very, very select few collectors. There are guys who will work to build a '52 Dodgers team set, but at what grade can they afford?

In the final analysis, the sheer demand for Mickey Mantle cards, particularly his 1952 Topps, will trump everything anyone has to say to argue about the real merits of other cards in the landmark 1952 Topps set. The supply for that beauty is high, but the demand goes on all day long, out the door and around the block, across the street, and clear out of town.

I wish I had mine back.

It's all good, bro. I do distinctly recall in about 1980-81 when it was discovered Mickey, Jackie, and Bobby were each double-printed, in order for the sheet to comprise to the right number. A key star from each New York team was chosen, Topps's biggest market. Dr. Beckett promptly cut their current values in half. Within months, or perhaps days, sellers ignored the "guide" and charged more for Mick. The buyers for that beautiful card were now sprouting like spring dandelions. They didn't care they were being charged more than "guide", and the quotes are meant to emphasize the guide nature of a guide price. They WANTED THAT CARD---NOW!!!!!!!!!!!

It's oh so true, the finds of cards in the future involving raw collections--unless the cards were preserved with the tools of our trade that work, their technical grades will be no better than high mid-grade.

The only chance of ultra-high grade cards coming out of the woodwork would be some from Mr. Mint's Find, providing they took care of it again (I.E. and NOT put them in a four-screw acrylic holder, and screwed down AS FAR AS THEIR STRENGTH WOULD ALLOW), or original unopened wax packs, a box, or the impossible---another case.

Sometimes I think we dream too much. Lots of fun, though. OK, time to shut up.

All the best, with respect, bro. ----Brian Powell

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by brian1961

All the best, with respect, bro. ----Brian Powell

No worries Brian!

I am just debating in good fun, thanks for adding.

[Neal]

All I know is that is most likely will never exist in my collection

The card of cards, imo

[Bigdaddy]

This sounds like a good job interview question from one of those new, high tech companies. I've seen some like "How many piano tuners are in Chicago?" or "How many gallons of water would fit in the Empire State Building?"

No one could reasonably know the answer, but the interviewer gets a chance to see the applicant's problem solving skills given limited knowledge and time.

So what do we know:
Approximately 1775 Micks have been graded by the major TPGs.
Some of those 1775 are re-grades, so the number of cards is somewhat less than 1775, maybe 10-20% less
Mick is a DP, so there were twice as many of him as most other high #s
Mick has always been highly collected - does this mean that more of his cards survived than the other high #s? or were they more 'well-loved' and therefore wore out faster and more likely to be thrown away? I'd guess that a larger percentage of his cards survived than other high numbers.
There are about 3-4 times more Mantles graded (on PSA) than most other '52s
Lots of 'speculative comments' above: Three in a town of 50,000 folks (would equate to ~19,200 at that rate for the US), only seen one ungraded copy in last few years, etc

The real unknown is the number of ungraded copies. Given the fact that it is a DP and maybe saved at a higher rate than other high #s, I'd guess the number is maybe two - three times the number of graded ones. Let's say 2.5.

So, 1750 * 0.8 (20% regrade) = 1400
1400 (graded) + 1400 * 2.5 (ungraded) = 4900

As time goes on, that number will only grow smaller as some are lost, destroyed by fire, flood, etc. Any copies that are found are already accounted for in the 'ungraded' category. And newly graded ones will just go from ungraded to graded, giving us better information on how many exist.

Of course, if you subscribe to the 'Wisdom of Crowds', then just have everyone give an estimate and average the numbers (taking out any obvious outliers).

[MattyC]

Here's a related question I've personally always wondered about the 1952 Topps Mantle-- how many are perfectly centered? It was interesting to read the linked Rosen Find article and see how both Fogel and Rosen mentioned the centered examples.

Gotta wonder if those printing machines shook a lot back then, or perhaps the man at the machine kept a flask on him at all times, lol.

[Bigdaddy]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Here's a related question I've personally always wondered about the 1952 Topps Mantle-- how many are perfectly centered?

As an engineer, I can say definitively, zero.

[orly57]

To the question of "how many of these have you actually seen ungraded?" I would respond with "once the owner decides to sell, and goes to an auction house, it gets sent to grade by the auction house before we ever got to see it in its raw state." No auction house is going to sell a raw 52 Mantle unless it is destroyed and an obvious "authentic" grade. Nor would any person with half a brain buy one ungraded off ebay. So the cards we actually get to see, to wit: the ones that are for sale, are all graded.
I would guess that there are quite a few ungraded mantles out there.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Bigdaddy

This sounds like a good job interview question from one of those new, high tech companies. I've seen some like "How many piano tuners are in Chicago?" or "How many gallons of water would fit in the Empire State Building?"

lol, you are correct. This is totally a Fermi Question.

[mrvster]

TOM J!!!!

did you see my post above???? similar to your calculation


our reasoning was almost exactly the same


I would say 5000 total population is a reasonable guess