Interesting Ebay Bidding

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

+1

It was a classic manipulated bubble on everything except perhaps the 52 Topps Mantle.

I so don't believe that. Yes, there were clearly some shenanigans on certain cards. I think we all agree on that. The market as a whole for high end rare vintage cards? Going up. No doubt in my mind. Unless the whole economy collapses like 2008, prices generally keep going higher.

[dariushou]

The whole thing was manipulated. Not just key rookie cards. Look at my previous post. Pick an issue or card it doesn't matter. PWCC's auctions are tainted in my opinion and they sell everything. It's also a relative argument. If a bunch of cards go up in price, such as key rookies, it tends to bring other cards up, too. Then it busts and everyone holding the cards who bought high loses out. If ebay gave more clarity we could easily show a lot more examples of fraud -- don't forget that you can't see anything after like 6-months, other than the image through VCP. It'll take lawsuits and handcuffs to enlighten everyone to the extent of the manipulation and fraud. Unfortunately, people's memory is short term and don't remember shill rings hauled off to jail in the past. The problems only got worse.

editing this to add that i just went to the latest pwcc auctions they put up today (1955 topps)-- i literally clicked only like 10 auctions, including 1 of the clemente's. Some of the bidders i listed in my previous post were of course bidding, but I found a few others with tons of retractions in last 6-months. Seriously, who has this many retractions and do they all come together and bid on PWCC auctions. Again, ignored the guys with huge bid activity with pwcc, unless they had a ton of retractions:


Bidder............Feedback........... 6-MO bid Retraction
7***0.........................1846................ . ........17
f***0.........................780................. .. ......11
1***a.........................391................. .. ......11
o***j..........................1935............... ..... .....9

I would post links to the auctions and can if you really want me too, but just click on a few with more than 2 bids. There are tons of them...not like a needle in a haystack.

[Snapolit1]

In the past I put down a ton of early bids on PWCC cards. Just so they show up on my eBay bidding list. I bid early and forget about them for a few weeks. I get outbid quickly and then just have a marker down and move on. Do the same thing for most of the major AHs. I would ascribe zero to early bidding.

[Snapolit1]

I think lost of cards from the 50s and 60s were jerked around big time. I don't see that craziness with prewar.

To suggest that the run up in every card was some manipulated scam with the exception of one card, the 52 Mantle, is crazy talk.

If anyone thought spending mega bucks on a Reggie Jackson rookie card was a good idea I feel for them.

[irv]

Originally Posted by dariushou

The whole thing was manipulated. Not just key rookie cards. Look at my previous post. Pick an issue or card it doesn't matter. PWCC's auctions are tainted in my opinion and they sell everything. It's also a relative argument. If a bunch of cards go up in price, such as key rookies, it tends to bring other cards up, too. Then it busts and everyone holding the cards who bought high loses out. If ebay gave more clarity we could easily show a lot more examples of fraud -- don't forget that you can't see anything after like 6-months, other than the image through VCP. It'll take lawsuits and handcuffs to enlighten everyone to the extent of the manipulation and fraud. Unfortunately, people's memory is short term and don't remember shill rings hauled off to jail in the past. The problems only got worse.

editing this to add that i just went to the latest pwcc auctions they put up today (1955 topps)-- i literally clicked only like 10 auctions, including 1 of the clemente's. Some of the bidders i listed in my previous post were of course bidding, but I found a few others with tons of retractions in last 6-months. Seriously, who has this many retractions and do they all come together and bid on PWCC auctions. Again, ignored the guys with huge bid activity with pwcc, unless they had a ton of retractions:


Bidder............Feedback........... 6-MO bid Retraction
7***0.........................1846................ . ........17
f***0.........................780................. .. ......11
1***a.........................391................. .. ......11
o***j..........................1935............... ..... .....9

I would post links to the auctions and can if you really want me too, but just click on a few with more than 2 bids. There are tons of them...not like a needle in a haystack.

Assuming everyone is reset to "0" after 6 months, it would/will be interesting to see how long they take to get their retraction count up again?

[dariushou]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

In the past I put down a ton of early bids on PWCC cards. Just so they show up on my eBay bidding list. I bid early and forget about them for a few weeks. I get outbid quickly and then just have a marker down and move on. Do the same thing for most of the major AHs. I would ascribe zero to early bidding.

I pointed out guys who bid early AND had high bid retractions. Do you have a lot of bid retractions? You also state you get outbid early which means you were probably trying to get a good deal -- how often do you get a good deal on PWCC auction.

You mention prewar. Here's my take on that. Prices that go up for other cards -- lets say 1955 clemente or 1956 clemente or whatever -- will impact other cards. If you were to bid on a Ty Cobb, you may think to yourself that other cards, even newer cards like 1955 Clemente shot up so why not the Cobb. My point is that a bubble (no matter the creation) brings everything up... well except for the obvious losers --junk wax I have not looked at a ton of cards prewar, but I would highly doubt they were not impacted, especially the ones that are traded frequently.

I like Keith's chart from VCP. I'm going to expand on it a little bit to highlight what has happened over the past several years. Price appreciation in a small market (baseball cards) is easily manipulated. I'll accompany that with an internet bubble chart (NASDAQ). Take note that in a heavily traded market, like the NASDAQ, the index shot up to about 2.5-3x the normal path (NOT 50-100x like what we have seen in the much smaller baseball card market which is easily manipulated). Then, my favorite,the typical bubble path chart.


Here is the expanded Clemente Chart:




Here is the NASDAQ Internet Bubble Chart:



Here is my favorite Bubble Chart:

[Exhibitman]

I agree with Darius that there was a bubble, whatever the causes. The charts are true. And it does ripple. People who cannot afford an 8 drop down to compete for a 6 and so on. People who are concerned they will be shut out grab what they can afford. Some prices were too low historically speaking, that is true. The Aaron rookie in a 7 sat for years under $2k.

I sold into some bubbles and did ok. The T206 error craze for example. The silly novelty cards I liked fishing out of commons piles brought huge money for a while. I bought into a few bubbles too and got my ass kicked.

[Beastmode]

Originally Posted by dariushou

The whole thing was manipulated. Not just key rookie cards. Look at my previous post. Pick an issue or card it doesn't matter. PWCC's auctions are tainted in my opinion and they sell everything. It's also a relative argument. If a bunch of cards go up in price, such as key rookies, it tends to bring other cards up, too. Then it busts and everyone holding the cards who bought high loses out. If ebay gave more clarity we could easily show a lot more examples of fraud -- don't forget that you can't see anything after like 6-months, other than the image through VCP. It'll take lawsuits and handcuffs to enlighten everyone to the extent of the manipulation and fraud. Unfortunately, people's memory is short term and don't remember shill rings hauled off to jail in the past. The problems only got worse.

editing this to add that i just went to the latest pwcc auctions they put up today (1955 topps)-- i literally clicked only like 10 auctions, including 1 of the clemente's. Some of the bidders i listed in my previous post were of course bidding, but I found a few others with tons of retractions in last 6-months. Seriously, who has this many retractions and do they all come together and bid on PWCC auctions. Again, ignored the guys with huge bid activity with pwcc, unless they had a ton of retractions:


Bidder............Feedback........... 6-MO bid Retraction
7***0.........................1846................ . ........17
f***0.........................780................. .. ......11
1***a.........................391................. .. ......11
o***j..........................1935............... ..... .....9

I would post links to the auctions and can if you really want me too, but just click on a few with more than 2 bids. There are tons of them...not like a needle in a haystack.

This is fucking ridiculous. How simple can it be for ebay to get this under control. it clearly happens this way by design. I do a lot of bids with PWCC and still am very happy with their service. I snipe a number and walk away, so whatever these bastards are doing doesn't affect me because I bid what I'm willing to pay.

Shilling, retracting, bid rigging, vote rigging, etc, has been going on since the cave-man. Keep your sanity and bid what you think the card is worth, and assume you will be shilled. And don't come on here crying about it later.

Keep in mind, IMO, we've been in a bull-market for cards 5-8 years. When the tables turn, these guys will be eating shit for dinner, and I'll be serving it.

[Exhibitman]

"When the tables turn, these guys will be eating shit for dinner, and I'll be serving it"

Hey John, don't hold back on your feelings, it is not healthy.

[Snapolit1]

I'm guessing that anyone who was buying high five figure or six figure cards and then fraudulently running up the market with a group of like minded others in the hopes of making a bundle on a quick flip probably isn't the kind of person whose going to be living under a highway overpass in a cardboard box anytime soon.

My genuine fear is that this happened with respect to a pretty narrow band of post war cards (I think we can name them) but that a large scandal hits Fortune magazine or something like that and all of a sudden all of card collecting go into the crapper.

Yes, I know some of you guys are collectors, unfettered by earthy concerns on valuation, and just look at these as sweet childhood relics, untroubled by any drop in market value. I realize that.

[stlcardsfan]

How simple can it be for ebay to get this under control. it clearly happens this way by design

Huh?

[Snapolit1]

Retract more than 3 bids in a 90 day period and your account is suspended for 90 days. That's a start.

[Beastmode]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

"When the tables turn, these guys will be eating shit for dinner, and I'll be serving it"

Hey John, don't hold back on your feelings, it is not healthy.

I feel a lot better now, thank you.

[KendallCat]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I so don't believe that. Yes, there were clearly some shenanigans on certain cards. I think we all agree on that. The market as a whole for high end rare vintage cards? Going up. No doubt in my mind. Unless the whole economy collapses like 2008, prices generally keep going higher.

There was major rigging on key players and several folks figured it out independently and compared notes. Without VCP it is very difficult to do, but with VCP I could go through and see a distinct pattern of rigging auctions and shilling. Don't believe it then go do this and report back. Pick Rose rookies, Clemente, Koufax, Ryan...

Check prices from March to now and tell me what caused these cards to go up 2-3 fold in value?

Then tell me what economic or card market forces caused them to drop from September to now, and basically all gains were lost and then some during that time. Keep in mind the US stock market is at a record high right now, so it is not like 2000-01 or 2008-09 when the market indices dropped big time.

I will hang up a listen. Here is a chart to help get you started.