Saturation Point

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Yoda

Over the past couple of months I have watched in a muted amazement at the rollout of a seemingly inexhaustible supply of '52 Topps Mantles, 55T Clemente and Koufax cards from the big AH's, Heritage, REA, Goldin etc. I am no economist, but I have to wonder how long the demand side can keep until prices become inelastic and there is a severe correction. Or when does serious price inflation become a bubble? The wild price fluctuations on say the Clemente card over a short period looks suspicious but who knows. I just have a feeling that the heavyweight players are not that many in number, investors rather than collectors who could pull the plug on their holdings at any time if they become nervous or bored.

This has been discussed a number of times. There also could of been cards that were just undervalued for whatever reason. 6 months -a year ago ago there were many that said the hobby was dying...if they would of sold their rookie HOF cards from the 50s they would of regretted it.

Stock market is high as well right now and continues to grow higher and im sure people are saying similar things about that.


As i said before though, during the housing market crisis the waterfront properties kept a lot of their value. The 52 mantle is a waterfront property.

[Jobu]

I put the 52 Mantle in a different category than cards like the 55T Clemente and Koufax. The Mantle is an icon, the T206 Wagner of its generation. There may be several thousand of them, but as long as people collect cards, that one will always be something almost everyone would like to have. The same cannot be said of the others. This of course doesn't mean that the 52 T Mantle isn't in a bubble right now, I just think it is just a lot less likely that there is a bubble or that we will see a huge crash for that card than it is for most other cards that have seen big jumps recently.

[botn]

Cannot speak for every lot of each of the auctions which has just ended but I did not see record prices on most of those I followed. Very few in fact set records and most sold at greatly reduced prices from the summer. What I am in awe about is how the market was able to absorb the sheer volume of product. Prices overall did not impress me but the consumption did.

[yanksfan09]

Anyone's guess I suppose. One thing about those waterfront properties though... They are prone to flooding and storm damage!

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by yanksfan09

Anyone's guess I suppose. One thing about those waterfront properties though... They are prone to flooding and storm damage!

right but FEMA always bails them out..

[KCRfan1]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

right but FEMA always bails them out..

Love the analogy Jake.

When the housing market crash hit CA, everything got hit except homes on the beach.

I can't afford Malibu, let alone the west side of the PCH there.

So, we buy what we can afford. Certainly not as flashy or valuable as Malibu ( 52' Mantle ), but we love what we have. Appreciation may not be as high or quick, and demand not as great if we sell. As a result, we may be more affected if there is a collapse in the market.

And if i'm buying beachfront, I'm not concerned with storm damage or water. That's a risk I take because the upside and demand outweighs any cons.

[botn]

Originally Posted by KCRfan1

Love the analogy Jake.

When the housing market crash hit CA, everything got hit except homes on the beach.

Actually that is not accurate. Even the homes on the water came down between 2008 and roughly 2011. They came back much faster than all other areas and now are far beyond their previous highs.

[Stampsfan]

Originally Posted by yanksfan09

Anyone's guess I suppose. One thing about those waterfront properties though... They are prone to flooding and storm damage!

Not sure if this is OT, but it caused me to think and chuckle.

When we were hit with a bad flood a few years ago, water and sewer backups were the issue with the seven figure homes along the river. A fellow at work is from SE Asia. He said "You people in North America have it backwards. Where I come from, the poor people live on the water, and the rich people live on the hill."

[clydepepper]

If anyone wants to 'pour' a '52 Mantle my way, I'll break out the fishing net!

...and that the only way I'll ever get one.


mcm

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Stampsfan

Not sure if this is OT, but it caused me to think and chuckle.

When we were hit with a bad flood a few years ago, water and sewer backups were the issue with the seven figure homes along the river. A fellow at work is from SE Asia. He said "You people in North America have it backwards. Where I come from, the poor people live on the water, and the rich people live on the hill."

thats true...i think in new orleans that applied..who wants to live below gulf/sea level over there..

[drmondobueno]

Originally Posted by Stampsfan

Not sure if this is OT, but it caused me to think and chuckle.

When we were hit with a bad flood a few years ago, water and sewer backups were the issue with the seven figure homes along the river. A fellow at work is from SE Asia. He said "You people in North America have it backwards. Where I come from, the poor people live on the water, and the rich people live on the hill."

That may happen soon enough, what with sea levels rising......

[Paul S]

Originally Posted by yanksfan09

Anyone's guess I suppose. One thing about those waterfront properties though... They are prone to flooding and storm damage!

Not to mention having to euthanize a Whale in Moriches Bay.

[iwantitiwinit]

We are taking about baseball cards here guys. Their investment value and ability to retain value in my opinion is far different from oceanfront real estate and any real estate for that matter. I think the basic supply demand function is very steep and inelastic for baseball cards, new entrants to the market would appear to be limited and there is no intrinsic value for cards nor is there a basic need for the product ie. shelter. I have a feeling these prices don't hold up much longer. It could be a month, 6 months or a year but they won't hold and there are going to be a lot of unhappy people out there that thought pieces of cardboard would make them rich. I could be wrong but I dont think so.

[bnorth]

Not sure about cards but with all this waterfront property talk I would love the market to tank for a few months. Looking at buying some and would love to get it at a reduced price.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by iwantitiwinit

We are taking about baseball cards here guys. Their investment value and ability to retain value in my opinion is far different from oceanfront real estate and any real estate for that matter. I think the basic supply demand function is very steep and inelastic for baseball cards, new entrants to the market would appear to be limited and there is no intrinsic value for cards nor is there a basic need for the product ie. shelter. I have a feeling these prices don't hold up much longer. It could be a month, 6 months or a year but they won't hold and there are going to be a lot of unhappy people out there that thought pieces of cardboard would make them rich. I could be wrong but I dont think so.

Artwork doesnt have any real value either and i dont think any cars are really needed for for basic needs hen you are paying 700k....theres always a market for things that arent basic needs......i always hear that basic need argument then i watch pawn stars or any number of auction sites selling tons of non basic need stuff that arent baseball cards and there seems to be always a market for it. Maybe not all time market high but always a market

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

This has been discussed a number of times. There also could of been cards that were just undervalued for whatever reason. 6 months -a year ago ago there were many that said the hobby was dying...if they would of sold their rookie HOF cards from the 50s they would of regretted it.

Stock market is high as well right now and continues to grow higher and im sure people are saying similar things about that.


As i said before though, during the housing market crisis the waterfront properties kept a lot of their value. The 52 mantle is a waterfront property.

Since at least 2010 I have seen the same predictions from the same people that the biggest market crash ever was imminent, just a matter of weeks. Always the same analysis that the dollar was about to lose its status as the world's reserve currency and once that happened it all would go to hell, or some variation on that, always the advice to stockpile gold and food, etc. etc. I am sure there are five ads under the front page on CNN.com and Foxnews.com saying the same thing as we speak. Of course for $99 you can subscribe to their newsletter and get their more in depth advice.