baseball playoffs

[bravos4evr]

welll... quarterbacks are like presidents they get too much credit for wins and too much blame for losses. I think it's an unfair comparison to make (qb vs pitcher I mean)


The thing is, if my team put up 9 runs early I would expect my pitcher to throw strikes and get outs rather than give up 5 runs. and if he did I wouldn't say he had a good outing because the team won, I would say the offense carried the day despite a lousy performance.

History tends tends to be written by sports writers, and they are moving towards a metric way of thinking so eventually some of these antiquated narratives will be replaced with more modern thinking ones and all will be well. stats don't lie, and true it is a small sample size, but Kershaw has had some issues in the postseason. IDK if it is nerves or opposing teams are less prone to take pitches and swing away earlier or what, but he needs to make some adjustments to his strategy apparently.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

welll... quarterbacks are like presidents they get too much credit for wins and too much blame for losses. I think it's an unfair comparison to make (qb vs pitcher I mean)


The thing is, if my team put up 9 runs early I would expect my pitcher to throw strikes and get outs rather than give up 5 runs. and if he did I wouldn't say he had a good outing because the team won, I would say the offense carried the day despite a lousy performance.

History tends tends to be written by sports writers, and they are moving towards a metric way of thinking so eventually some of these antiquated narratives will be replaced with more modern thinking ones and all will be well. stats don't lie, and true it is a small sample size, but Kershaw has had some issues in the postseason. IDK if it is nerves or opposing teams are less prone to take pitches and swing away earlier or what, but he needs to make some adjustments to his strategy apparently.

I agree with most of what you said actually.

The only thing is for me is i do think a pitcher did his job if his team scores 9 runs for him if he gives up 5 runs..

things happen in a 9 run lead...you have a guy on 3rd with less than 2 outs you dont care if he scores. You also would rather have a guy hit a homer out the park then walk him when one guy is on base. It could be argued that a pitcher trying to keep his era in the 1.00-2.00 range in a 9-0 game may risk giving up a HUGE inning if he doesnt take the sure outs.

Even if its only a 1% chance that you give up 10 runs, i wouldnt risk it. Id rather give up 5 runs for certain and nothing more if up 9 runs than have a 1 percent chance to give up 10 runs with the attempt of keeping my ERA down to the 1-2 range


I know i am focusing on extreme outliers. i just trying to help out the pitchers that focus on the team wins then their era in all of the samples in between.

If Dodgers end up winning game 5 Kershaw could conceivably be top 5 guy for MVP of the series (would go to Janson.Turner )...thats not exactly terrible

[bravos4evr]

you have a guy on 3rd with less than 2 outs you dont care if he scores. You also would rather have a guy hit a homer out the park then walk him when one guy is on base. It could be argued that a pitcher trying to keep his era in the 1.00-2.00 range in a 9-0 game may risk giving up a HUGE inning if he doesnt take the sure outs.

true you might not be too concerned if he scores, but it would be much better if he didn't. and no, I would not rather a batter hit a bomb than walk, the odds of scoring on first with no outs isn't all that high, the odds of scoring with a HR are 100%!


sure a pitcher can "skate by" giving up 5 runs, but I wouldn't feel to confident about his next playoff start. I want pitchers to dominate and keep runs off the board if it's 10-0 or 1-1.

[chaddurbin]

feels like the last few posts could be jack morris' argument for his hall of fame candidacy...which i'm not a fan of.

as for kershaw, i'm about as close to the situation as possible living in socal. there are many reasons why he's not as dominant as REGULAR SEASON KERSHAW...sure there could be some physiological or mental hurdle, but it could also be the SSS, leaky bullpen, short rest, him being so great he has a longer leash where lesser pitchers wouln't repeatedly turn over a lineup a 3rd time on 3 days rest etc.

i don't remember him being hit hard much, just some weird 7th innings haven't looked at his number closely but his OPS-against in the playoffs shouldn't be a big jump off from his regular season. the start in washington to open the series was the first time i could remember seeing him labor in forever and thinking this is not peak kershaw.

as is we're all hands on deck today...i still feel urias should've started game 4 at home and have a fresh kershaw for game 5 today in washington...but maybe the FO is thinking ahead if they can get by wash to have kershaw pitch 2-3x vs the cubs.

Really rooting for a Cubs v. Indians series. 176 years of combined futility (Cubs last World Series win 1908, Indians 1948) . Not likely to see that again in our lifetime, unless you live to be a 177 year old Mariners fan

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by chaddurbin

feels like the last few posts could be jack morris' argument for his hall of fame candidacy...which i'm not a fan of.

as for kershaw, i'm about as close to the situation as possible living in socal. there are many reasons why he's not as dominant as REGULAR SEASON KERSHAW...sure there could be some physiological or mental hurdle, but it could also be the SSS, leaky bullpen, short rest, him being so great he has a longer leash where lesser pitchers wouln't repeatedly turn over a lineup a 3rd time on 3 days rest etc.

i don't remember him being hit hard much, just some weird 7th innings haven't looked at his number closely but his OPS-against in the playoffs shouldn't be a big jump off from his regular season. the start in washington to open the series was the first time i could remember seeing him labor in forever and thinking this is not peak kershaw.

as is we're all hands on deck today...i still feel urias should've started game 4 at home and have a fresh kershaw for game 5 today in washington...but maybe the FO is thinking ahead if they can get by wash to have kershaw pitch 2-3x vs the cubs.

Can you imagine the sh*t the manager and front office would have taken if they held Kershaw out of game 4 and were eliminated? I am sure nobody was thinking ahead, they were facing an elimination game and did what all teams would do, go with their best pitcher on short rest.

[Peter_Spaeth]

OPS .564 regular season .658 post season.

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Can you imagine the sh*t the manager and front office would have taken if they held Kershaw out of game 4 and were eliminated? I am sure nobody was thinking ahead, they were facing an elimination game and did what all teams would do, go with their best pitcher on short rest.

well, sure, but the thing is they had to win two games to make the next rd and the argument is will a regular rest Urias in 4 and Kershaw in game 5 be better than a short rest kershaw in game 4 and a short rest Hill in game 5?

an argument can be made that the former was the better option.

[bravos4evr]

as for kershaw, i'm about as close to the situation as possible living in socal. there are many reasons why he's not as dominant as REGULAR SEASON KERSHAW...sure there could be some physiological or mental hurdle, but it could also be the SSS, leaky bullpen, short rest, him being so great he has a longer leash where lesser pitchers wouln't repeatedly turn over a lineup a 3rd time on 3 days rest etc.

I tend to think SSS is largely at play here with a bit of bad luck on BABIP and perhaps a little more aggressive approach by batter's faced in the playoffs.

career (regular season)

K/9: 9.81 BB/9: 2.44 HR/FB: 7.0% BABIP: .271 ERA: 2.37 FIP:2.55


career (playoffs)

K/9: 11.20 BB/9: 3.07 HR/FB: 10.7% BABIP: .311 ERA: 4.83 FIP: 3.04




this tells me that he's getting a little bit unlucky on balls in play(either by placement or bad defensive range behind him) and plays a little more to league avg in HR/FB as his K's go up as do walks, but not so much as to be a problem really.

If he were to have say 60 more playoff games I would expect to see his era and fip closer toward his regular season avg.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

well, sure, but the thing is they had to win two games to make the next rd and the argument is will a regular rest Urias in 4 and Kershaw in game 5 be better than a short rest kershaw in game 4 and a short rest Hill in game 5?

an argument can be made that the former was the better option.

A team facing elimination in game 4 is, rightly, focused not on the best chance to win two but the best chance to stay alive and worry about game 5 if they get that luxury. You don't start a 19 year old with 5 lifetime wins in an elimination playoff game, IMO, not when you have an elite HOF pitcher available even if he is on short rest.

[botn]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Can you imagine the sh*t the manager and front office would have taken if they held Kershaw out of game 4 and were eliminated? I am sure nobody was thinking ahead, they were facing an elimination game and did what all teams would do, go with their best pitcher on short rest.

Exactly. If Urias pitches game 4 there would not have been a game 5. Kershaw was their only hope and a gamble at that given his postseason history. The team itself is not the same in postseason but aside from a great strike out to walk ratio Kershaw is absolutely not the same dominant pitcher that he is during the regular season.

I like Rich Hill tonight if the Dodgers can give him a few runs.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Well Kershaw got the save tonight on one game rest

if Kershaw gives up a double then Janson gets the Loss with 2 earned runs and Janson's era goes through the roof even though he was terrific.

inherited runners scoring matters in a short sample size..

Kerhaw now has more post season saves than koufax


There was a graphic in the 9th inning when kershaw entered the game saying Kerhaw had 19ks in 11 innings or something to that effect and that the Dodgers won BOTH of his starts..(zero mention of his era)

so now his team won both of his starts and he gets a key save retiring Murphy and this year so far is supposed to support his bad history of the postseason? Yeah right, this year his postseason has not tarnished his legacy at all.

on to the next round.....and who cares about using kershaw/janson for 2 plus inning and the impact in game 1 versus cubs...if the dodgers dont win game 5 then season is over anyway