Value of T206 E.Collins??

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

Collins was an elite base runner, but Molitor wasn't? Seriously? Why, because Collins stole more bases? For one, Molitor's number of attempts was hurt by his injuries, but he's a much better stealer than Collins ever was. Look inside the numbers.

Collins: 741 stolen bases, 195 caught stealing = 936 attempts. 79.166% success rate
Molitor: 504 stolen bases, 131 caught stealing = 635 attempts. 79.370% success rate.

And, the thing is, Cocky's caught stealing records are incomplete. He was a full-time player as of 1909. There is no record of his caught stealing figures for 1909, 1910, 1911, 1913, 1917, 1918, and 1919. He swiped 345 of his 741 steals in those seasons. How many times did he get caught? Look at his best base stealing seasons where full records are available: he stole 63 in 1912, and was caught 22 times. 74% success rate. In 1914, he swiped 58 bases, but got caught 30 times. That's a 66% success rate. In 1915, he swiped 46 bases, and got caught 30 times. That's a 60.5% success rate. In 1923, he stole 48 bases, leading the league. But he also led the league getting nailed 29 times. That's a 62.3% success rate. Molitor has a 79.4% career success rate, which is already slightly better than Collins' 79.2% rate without even considering all the times he got caught, for which there are no records. Take his four seasons where complete records are known, before he hit age 30: 1912, 1914, 1915 and 1916. He stole 207 bases in 310 tries. 66.7% success rate. Assume he's successful at that same rate for the seasons where no caught stealing records are available. That means he attempted to steal 517 times. So, that's another 172 times he was caught stealing. So, now he's stolen 741 bases....in 1,108 attempts. A 66.9% success rate for his career.

And that was assuming the best case scenario, by his complete seasonal records. He could have been thrown out more often, meaning his career rate dips further.

What about doubles and triples? Collins played half of his career in the dead ball era, when nobody hit home runs. Collins hit 438 doubles, and 187 triples in 2,826 games. Molitor hit 605 doubles, and 114 triples in 2,684 games. 812 extra bases for Collins by double or triple, 833 extra bases for Molitor from doubles and triples. That's a push.

In no way was Collins a better base runner than Paul Molitor. None. He stole more bases, yes. But he also got caught a hell of a lot more often, and what good is stealing if you're getting thrown out a high percentage of the time?

baserunning is more than just stolen bases it's taking extra bases...etc

for Molitor's 12,160 PA's he has a baserunning rating of 46.6 runs above avg, Collins has a 42.3 in 12,037 PA's, so really they were pretty close in total baserunning value per plate appearance.

Collins played 2b, Molitor played 1b and DH, Collins was a 22% better hitter relative to league avg than Molitor (144 for collins 122 for Molitor) for his career as well, this is why he is an elite player and Molitor is not (well ,relative to other HOF'ers anyway)

using counting stats is kind of a waste of time when comparing across eras like that. rates and peripherals give us a much better picture. Molitor was a good player, but Collins is an all time elite player. It's not even close really. 60+ more pts of OBP really matters.(and Collins is tied for 12th all time in getting on base among all players with at least 3000 PA's all time (.424) , Molitor is 281st among the same with a .369)