Future of grading...

[EvilKing00]

in order i my choice is sgc, bvg then psa.

[swarmee]

I don't see a change from PSA controlling the vast market share. Their bulk pricing is the best, their prices realized are the best historically, and their set registry and pop reports are the best and most used in the industry.

[CrackaJackKid]

Anyone think there's a possibility of a brand new grading service emerging that could capture the market?

[steve B]

Yes, I think there's room for another grading service.

Just not one that operates the same way as any of the big three currently operate.

I have a feeling that if the right sort of grading company starts up, and has the right funding and the right setup it's possible none of the current top 3 will be operating unless they change in some major ways.

I've seen a couple things recently that have convinced me that all of the current group really aren't doing much of a good job.

Slower, more reliable, and yes, that implies more expensive.

Steve B

[iwantitiwinit]

Originally Posted by steve B

Yes, I think there's room for another grading service.

Just not one that operates the same way as any of the big three currently operate.

I have a feeling that if the right sort of grading company starts up, and has the right funding and the right setup it's possible none of the current top 3 will be operating unless they change in some major ways.

I've seen a couple things recently that have convinced me that all of the current group really aren't doing much of a good job.

Slower, more reliable, and yes, that implies more expensive.

Steve B

I don't know if I agree that another grading company could be successful much less supplant PSA and even SGC. I would think that a high percentage of high dollar/high grade cards have already been graded by either psa or sgc. If I had a large quantity of say t206 graded 6 or higher what would be my motivation to have them regraded by another company regardless of their reputation? That regrade might result in lower grades and therefore lesser value. Now might a new company emerge that can garner a portion of newer card submissions, sure, there are a plethora of post 1976 card issues that haven't yet been encased but I think they would have a tough time grabbing any market share in the pre-1977 category. If PSA or SGC went bankrupt that would be another story.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by iwantitiwinit

I don't know if I agree that another grading company could be successful much less supplant PSA and even SGC. I would think that a high percentage of high dollar/high grade cards have already been graded by either psa or sgc. If I had a large quantity of say t206 graded 6 or higher what would be my motivation to have them regraded by another company regardless of their reputation? That regrade might result in lower grades and therefore lesser value. Now might a new company emerge that can garner a portion of newer card submissions, sure, there are a plethora of post 1976 card issues that haven't yet been encased but I think they would have a tough time grabbing any market share in the pre-1977 category. If PSA or SGC went bankrupt that would be another story.

I didn't say a new company would have an easy time getting established or gaining business that the current big three have now.

What they'd have to do would be to add value in a number of ways.

For the holders, how about a solid holder with better protection from tampering than the current ones.
Add in some sensible customization, and that's a huge plus. Some people prefer the clear PSA cases, some prefer the inserts like SGC has. Both have weaknesses, PSA needs the card to fit the space, undersize is prone to damage, too big and it has to go in a sleeve. And the rush to get them in plastic does damage on occasion.
SGC has the ongoing issue with the gaskets being a bit too thin allowing the card to move. Plus, while the black is great for some sets it's not as good for others.
Becketts holders are simply too thick for a large collection. Great for a collector who will collect a handful of cards - something like rookies of stars, but at nearly 1/4 inch thick the stack for an early 80's set would be around 15 feet.

So maybe a selection of gaskets? Clear, black, maybe colors for the team collectors, a few lighter choices for sets like 71 Topps and 1950 Drakes.
Put into a holder that's more solidly designed and made tamper evident, along the lines of the packing tape that comes apart revealing words like "damaged do not open" (Of course it would have to be different for cards)

All have made some glaring errors in slabbing fakes.
None of them do all that good of a job at identifying flaws, so someone can tell why a card that otherwise looks great might have a low technical grade.

I'm not sure about computer grading, I see it being fairly difficult because of the sheer number of things that would need to be tracked of which some on modern cards are hard to image.
But having a detailed report available would go a long way towards making things make more sense.
Yes, it's more complex as someone pointed out about the Beckett subgrades, but with a simple number shown and the extra info available a collector could ignore it if it didn't matter to them. (I think I've read the sub grades on my handful of Beckett graded cards, but didn't really pay much attention)

This is an example of the sort of process I'd like to see.
http://www.philatelicfoundation.org/...s/the-process/

Steve Birmingham

[tschock]

Originally Posted by iwantitiwinit

If I had a large quantity of say t206 graded 6 or higher what would be my motivation to have them regraded by another company regardless of their reputation?

That is the real key to a new grading company entering the market and displacing any of the others. How they will handle already graded cards. All other innovations will be secondary to this (IMO).

[vintagebaseballcardguy]

Sam/PowderedH20 said: "Why should I be in competition? I am a school teacher. I have maybe $3-5k a year that I can sink into cards, and sometimes less than that. There are guys making $250k a year that can wake up tomorrow and decide they want to start a card collection and have a better collection than me in less than 48 hours. When I see the Donald Spences of the world, I am happy for them, but they and I are not in competition. My Roberto Clemente rookie would look silly in Spence's 1955 set. Same with my Aaron rookie and my Rose rookie. I am only in competition with myself to see what I can do with my own collection. You realize that with the right amount of money, a wealthy person could go onto ebay and nearly complete full runs of Topps and Bowman in high grade in less than a month, right? So, why sweat it? Just enjoy what you can afford and don't worry about what others get."

I don't think I could have said it any better. Thanks for this post, Sam.

[Bram99]

I think that e-Commerce and the demise of shows and person to person dealing without an intermediary like an auction house or site makes grading essential.

I also have concerns / complaints over PSA's grading. The mere fact that they encourage me to send a card in for re-grading despite their supposed grading by one human and another who does peer review (I have the emails where they told me to do so), tells me that they have become more interested in profit maximization than long-term customer satisfaction. For that reason, I do believe there is room for a 3rd party grader to overtake PSA - and SGC seems best positioned at the moment.

It takes time for such transitions, but one thing is for sure, and that is that there are plenty of sellers out there that a grading service helps to protect us from. See the eBay ratings and feedback for Battlefield 0516 from all of their "beautiful, breathtaking, etc." cards that people have been dissatisfied with. That is what makes the future of grading bright.

[CrackaJackKid]

PSA was so much more lenient 5-10 years ago on their grading but claim their standards have not changed. They graded the trimmed Wagner and didn't catch it. They also claim there's no perks for wealthy/celebrity type individuals who submit cards for grading which I think is bs. It's all about the all mighty dollar.

[nhsportsguy]

Let me ask you this - what would a new grading company have to do to differentiate themselves from the 3 big companies now? Is it simply a matter of being less expensive and having quicker turnaround? Are you looking for a company to innovate a way to make something subjective objective?

[steve B]

Originally Posted by nhsportsguy

Let me ask you this - what would a new grading company have to do to differentiate themselves from the 3 big companies now? Is it simply a matter of being less expensive and having quicker turnaround? Are you looking for a company to innovate a way to make something subjective objective?

No, the opposite of that. Slower, a bit more expensive, but with far fewer mistakes. Maybe a detailed report indicating the reasons for the grade. Plenty of room for better holders all around, and maybe giving some choice of holders.

Really, other than dealers not wanting cash tied up for any length of time at all and probably a nervous insurance company, there's no good reason to rush the more valuable cards and take a long time on the cheap ones. That's entirely backwards to how it's done in many other hobbies (If it's done at all)

The report could be digital, or printed, or both.
Maybe a registry that allows cards from other companies to be entered, perhaps with a bit of weighting in favor of the new company.

Steve B

[CrackaJackKid]

Consistency,honesty,affordability. Details about why grades got what they did. Just to name a few.

[Bram99]

It is about consistency, integrity, customer service. Value for the service. The cost for the service needs to provide both peace of mind to the collector and a premium to the customer looking to sell.

[Manny Trillo]

Originally Posted by nhsportsguy

Let me ask you this - what would a new grading company have to do to differentiate themselves from the 3 big companies now? Is it simply a matter of being less expensive and having quicker turnaround? Are you looking for a company to innovate a way to make something subjective objective?

The biggest thing for me would be the look of the flips. The flips they have now are so crappy looking.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G530AZ using Tapatalk

[Nick55]

This subtopic on the dynamics of PSA's grading standards comes up from time to time. When confronted about it, the typical response I've seen from PSA is that their standards have not changed at all, and technically, they're correct (i.e., the wording of the standards has not changed). In my view, what has changed is their application of the standards, which is a whole different issue. In other words, I think they apply (and interpret) the standards much more stringently today than they did even a few years ago.

[KCRfan1]

Originally Posted by Winston7715

PSA was so much more lenient 5-10 years ago on their grading but claim their standards have not changed. They graded the trimmed Wagner and didn't catch it. They also claim there's no perks for wealthy/celebrity type individuals who submit cards for grading which I think is bs. It's all about the all mighty dollar.

I don't believe it's a matter of PSA " not catching " it. PSA was just starting up, and what better way to make a very big splash and give a name to your company than to grade the hottest card in the market? The card industry was waining, and the Wagner was making news for the price it was selling for.

The Wagner HAD to receive a numerical grade. If the card had not received a grade, PSA would have had a difficult road ahead as a company since it was a start-up. The hobby would have been depressed further. If the Wagner was altered, how many MORE cards are altered?

Like it or not, Wagner had to grade.

[CrackaJackKid]

So it had to receive a numerical grade cause PSA was just starting up? So come right out of the gates being shady and lying? I know of several cards that have been submitted 3-5 times and all received a different grade each time. One being the 1914 CJ Matty. First time authentic trimmed,then a 2,then a 4??? I have seen the scans. It's just gotten to the point of "if you can't beat em, join em mentality cause they have control of so much of the market.

[RealToppsaholic]

Originally Posted by Winston7715

Anyone think there's a possibility of a brand new grading service emerging that could capture the market?

10 years ago the top 2 companies were GAI and PSA

[deltaarnet]

Why does a cracked SGC 60 become a PSA N6 under sized? Who's doing the right thing?