Clayton Kershaw

[bravos4evr]

You say McGriff's career 57 fWAR isn't high enough for you. Well, Kaat has a career 45.3 bWAR, and a 70.9 fWAR, for a guy that played 25 years, seems low to me, too.

well, that's why I compared Kaat to Eddie Murray, neither were super dominant players, and both played a long time and accumulated WAR (70.9 for Kaat, 72.1 for Murray) I tend to think that most guys who go over 60 career WAR at least deserve a long look.

I do agree that there are far too many players in Cooperstown as it is, though I'm not sure if I'd boot Mazeroski. I think the best to ever play a certain position, defensively, should be in. Metrics won't support that argument, but I think historic defensive metrics are pretty piss poor.

I can see that argument ,at least for the "up the middle" positions and 3b as they require more defensive skill. But will the voters put in Andruw Jones? 67 career fWAR, better hitter than Ozzie or Maz or Brooks and is the most dominant defensive player in the modern era of defensive stats. (not to mention has counting stats like 434 homers and 1300 RBI's that the voters like) I think he should get in, but I don't think he will, and all of a sudden the "good glove" vote starts to look a little suspect.

[Tabe]

If Kerhsaw were able to somehow get an inning in next year and then have to retire to meet the 10-year requirement, I say he's a HOFer. He's already had more excellent seasons than Koufax. Koufax had 5 plus 1 very good season. Kershaw has had 8 excellent seasons. Koufax had a career 131 ERA+ - Kershaw is at 157. Kershaw led the MAJORS in ERA four straight seasons. NOBODY has ever done that other than Kershaw. Kershaw's ERA away from Dodger Stadium - 2.83. Koufax's ERA away from Dodger Stadium - 3.38 in a far easier time.

None of that should be taken as a knock on Koufax. Rather it's testimony to Kershaw's greatness.

[Dewey]

Hurry back, Clayton. We'll keep the light on.

[the 'stache]

The counting stats look good until you see his career OPS + of 111. Everybody and their mother were hitting home runs in that era. His offensive performance, relative to the other hitters in his league, wasn't all that great.

Still, he was a center fielder doing this. So, I don't know. He doesn't scream Hall of Famer to me.

And as far as Maz goes, he wasn't just a good glove. He's the best to ever play the position. Honestly, I think his dWAR is a bit low, too.

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

I can see that argument ,at least for the "up the middle" positions and 3b as they require more defensive skill. But will the voters put in Andruw Jones? 67 career fWAR, better hitter than Ozzie or Maz or Brooks and is the most dominant defensive player in the modern era of defensive stats. (not to mention has counting stats like 434 homers and 1300 RBI's that the voters like) I think he should get in, but I don't think he will, and all of a sudden the "good glove" vote starts to look a little suspect.

[the 'stache]

And comparing Kaat and Murray is not a fair comparison. For his career, Kaat was 8% above league average for pitchers with a 108 ERA +.

Murray, for his career, was 29% above league average as a hitter with a 129 OPS +. And if you eliminate the late part of his career where his numbers tanked, he's even better. From 1977 to 1990 (14 seasons, and 9,125 PA's, a full career for many players), his career OPS + was 140. 40% above league average for a decade and a half is pretty dominant. To compare to a modern player, Ryan Braun has a career 141 OPS +. If you were a GM in today's game, and could add Braun to your lineup, and get his career average offensive production, you'd flip and speak in tongues to get him. Well, that's what Murray was for the vast majority of his career. A dominant offensive force.

The peak of his career, 1981-1985, was pretty spectacular, given the era. His 162 game averages for that five year span: .304 AVG, 105 runs scored, 183 hits, 33 doubles, 120 RBI, 87 BB vs 83 Ks, and a slash line of .390 OBP/.530 SLG/.920 OPS. A 155 OPS + is pretty damned good in any era. The counting stats aren't as eye popping because there just wasn't a lot of offense in that era. Context is everything. Andruw Jones had a 136 OPS + the season he hit 51 bombs. That looks impressive next to Murray's best season of counting stats (33 home runs in 1983). Yet Murray's 156 OPS + blows Jones' out of the water. Why? The era. Between 2000 and 2009, there were 12 50 home run seasons, and 42 seasons of 40 or more. Between 1980 and 1989, there wasn't a single 50 home run season, and 13 seasons of 40 or more home runs.

Murray was pretty dominant.

There were 140 batters to amass 3,000 or more at bats between 1980 and 1989. Murray had the 8th highest OPS + of those 140 batters. Only two batters in all the Major Leagues had more home runs in the 1980s than Murray's 274: Mike Schmidt hit 313, and Dale Murphy hit 308.

I think you're under-appreciating how good Murray really was.

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

well, that's why I compared Kaat to Eddie Murray, neither were super dominant players, and both played a long time and accumulated WAR (70.9 for Kaat, 72.1 for Murray) I tend to think that most guys who go over 60 career WAR at least deserve a long look.

[bravos4evr]

I don't like baseball reference so I don't use their stats. value is value, 72 WAR is 72 WAR and Murray and Kaat were worth the same yet only 1 is a HOF'er?

[the 'stache]

Clearly Murray was farther above the average Major League player than Kaat. And if it took Kaat 4 extra years to reach Murray's WAR, is he really as valuable? Nope.

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

Clearly Murray was farther above the average Major League player than Kaat. And if it took Kaat 4 extra years to reach Murray's WAR, is he really as valuable? Nope.

for their careers yes they were equally valuable. value is value


you also fail to mention Kaat's high rated defense which doesn't count towards his pitching WAR. (but Murray's counts toward his)

[the 'stache]

No, they weren't equally valuable. Not by any stretch of the imagination.

If one horse takes two minutes to run a mile, and a second horse takes 2:20 to run the mile, they've both run a mile, but the first horse was much faster than the second. The first horse wins races, and gets put out to stud. The second gets turned into glue.

Kaat needed an extra 4 years, or a career that was 20% longer than Murray's, to get the same value. Not the same. Not even close.

You can dismiss all the stats you want. But the same formulas apply equally to all players in the game's history. And one says, for his career, Kaat was 8% better than the average pitchers in his era. The other says that Murray was 29% better than the average hitters in his era.

Oh, and Eddie Murray was voted into the Hall of Fame in 2003, receiving 85.3% of the vote the first time he was eligible.

Jim Kaat was on the Hall ballot for fifteen years, and never cracked 30% of any vote. He was dropped from the ballot.

85% vote, got in on first try vs. 15 years on the ballot, and never sniffed induction.

But, yeah, they were equally valuable. Uh huh. That's what we call an untenable position.

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

for their careers yes they were equally valuable. value is value


you also fail to mention Kaat's high rated defense which doesn't count towards his pitching WAR. (but Murray's counts toward his)

[the 'stache]

And Kaat gets 6 + WAR from his hitting, which is far more than he'd ever get from his fielding as a pitcher, even as a Gold Glover (which, again, doesn't really mean anything, right? You can't say awards are meaningless one minute, and then turn around hailing the number of Gold Gloves a pitcher has as an indication of how much his WAR should be increased).

Why isn't dWar considered for pitchers? Because they don't get enough chances to justify its inclusion. A starting pitcher throws 30-35 games a year, on average, with some variance depending on the era they pitched in. Kaat played 25 years. He had a grand total of 1,062 defensive chances. That breaks down to about 41 a year, or slightly more than one chance per game. How much do you think WAR will increase by the one ball, on average, Kaat fielded a game?

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

No, they weren't equally valuable. Not by any stretch of the imagination.

If one horse takes two minutes to run a mile, and a second horse takes 2:20 to run the mile, they've both run a mile, but the first horse was much faster than the second. The first horse wins races, and gets put out to stud. The second gets turned into glue.

Kaat needed an extra 4 years, or a career that was 20% longer than Murray's, to get the same value. Not the same. Not even close.

You can dismiss all the stats you want. But the same formulas apply equally to all players in the game's history. And one says, for his career, Kaat was 8% better than the average pitchers in his era. The other says that Murray was 29% better than the average hitters in his era.

Oh, and Eddie Murray was voted into the Hall of Fame in 2003, receiving 85.3% of the vote the first time he was eligible.

Jim Kaat was on the Hall ballot for fifteen years, and never cracked 30% of any vote. He was dropped from the ballot.

85% vote, got in on first try vs. 15 years on the ballot, and never sniffed induction.

But, yeah, they were equally valuable. Uh huh. That's what we call an untenable position.

so I didn't say they were equal players on a year by year basis, but the RESULTS of their career say they provided equal value.

so what? the voters were mostly morons back then who still thought batting avg and RBI's had value (as well as pitcher wins). Voters are smarter now.

There are only 4 pitchers IN MLB HISTORY who aren't in the HOF, with more fWAR than Kaat, Tommy John, Mike Mussina, Kevin Brown and Curt Schilling, all 5 (including Kaat) are in the top 30 of starters all time per fWAR. (and 2 of them, Brown and Schilling, have had the PED thing associated with them)

BTW, 4 of Kaat's last 5 seasons he was a pen arm so he accumulated his WAR in 21 seasons of starting.


(oh and fWAR adds defensive production to batter WAR along with baserunning this is why it doesn't show up on pitcher WAR stats)

[steve B]

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

I don't like baseball reference so I don't use their stats. value is value, 72 WAR is 72 WAR and Murray and Kaat were worth the same yet only 1 is a HOF'er?

They actually switched some of their calculating of WAR to the system that the site you like uses after discussing it with them. So maybe they're not so bad eh?

Steve B

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by steve B

They actually switched some of their calculating of WAR to the system that the site you like uses after discussing it with them. So maybe they're not so bad eh?

Steve B

I'd have to look into that, but I'm not a big fan of ERA+ vs FIP nor OPS+ vs wRC+ or wOBA. Plus, Fangraphs using both UZR and DRS on defense is a plus too.

Plus, to be honest, Fangraphs has writers who cover the game, prospects, scouting etc and will follow up discussion on stat validity. BR just seems to be a reference place that was designed in 1992 and never updated. lol

I think it's probably fair to use either,but not to swap between the two so as to back up a particular argument.