Changing of the Guard: The Commoditization of Sportscards

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by glynparson

Despite claims there has been nowhere near the same growth in price of low grade rose, Ryan, Stargell, Yaz, Brett and other rookies.

Yet.

I would not expect the same rate of growth, but historically speaking when a marquee card in top # slab goes up dramatically, collectors do tend to downshift. I mean as a Hank Aaron collector I cannot afford a near mint RC but I definitely can afford a lower grade one, and I cannot just 'skip' the RC for my collection. There has been growth, though. A vg Aaron RC averaged around $525 two years ago. The most recent one closed on eBay for $760 and that was down a bit from the recent averages of about $900. A vg Clemente RC was a $600 card two years ago; now it runs around $800 on average and a recent one closed at $1295.

That makes sense in context: is an 8 really worth 20x a 6? Is it worth 100x a 4? Not to everyone. If I can get a card with similar eye appeal but a technical flaw like a corner ding for a tiny % of the cost, maybe that is where I go? And if I go there, doesn't it stand to reason that other collectors will do the same and drive up prices on those replacement items?

One thing I'd be interested in seeing is how the relative prices of these cards in various grades vary over time. When a top grade card skyrockets does the multiple it now fetches over the next grades down tend to narrow back down to typical (whether due to price drops at the top or price rises at the bottom) or does the spread remain? What is the historical price differential between the various grades? The answer to that question might suggest where to invest next, in a HOF RC that hasn't grown faster relative to lower grade specimens. I wish I had the time and the mathematical chops to resolve that.

[glynparson]

You pointed out two cards I purposely did not mention. I feel both like mantle started their rise prior to this recent boom and are definetly harder in good eye appeal lower grades than those I mentioned. I am honestly not sure those and mantle are solely being driven by these 30 buyers. Maybe but these are at least more defensible in their increases than the current levels on rose and Ryan in particular. I have a friend who sells my stuff for me on eBay, a big name dealer everyone knows, we have sold out of all the hot cards in higher grades but both of us still have several of these listed in lower grades and have sold feW to none over the last 4 month boom where we literally were cleaned out of high end examples. So I honestly don't think it's happened to the extent one would think. If the high end pricing surge continues you maybe right and the prices at the lower end may indeed rise but remember these prices will bring more submissions of these cards and most will be at the lower end increasing supply and maybe not increasing price. You also need to take into account who is buying what sometimes a high price on a mid lower end card is it because a doctor or two have seen it and think they can fix or minimize its flaws or is it being driven by collectors?

[TanksAndSpartans]

I’m wondering about two related things: 1) Are members of the group who are buying cards at record prices also selling them? Is there collusion within the group to guarantee certain cards sell at a predetermined level? Using an eBay search, its easy to see recent 1958 Jim Brown PSA 8 rookie sales:

04-24: 4401
05-08: 2199
06-14: 6499
06-23: 17,500

It could be that despite 3 sales within 2 months, there were bidders who thought the 06-23 card was so unlikely to come up again, that 17.5K was a good price. How many of us think that is smart/rational behavior though? Call it rationality or common sense or whatever, but I can’t help but think the 17.5K price tag may have some other purpose. What the end game is, I have some thoughts, but I’m not sure.

[CMIZ5290]

Originally Posted by trdcrdkid

I know that David Hall (president of Collector's Universe, parent company of PSA) has been working on a master set of T206 and driving up prices of many of the tougher backs in that set, but does anybody know if he has been buying any of the high-end postwar stuff being discussed in this thread? He apparently has very deep pockets.

Yes, buying 7 and 8's T206s..... (Edit)My bad, this is obviously pre-war, sorry....

[Steve D]

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

unlike real estate though, the price of a PSA 9 that escalates by 1000% in 6 months DOES impact those collectors just trying to grab a psa 6 or 7 for their collections. People think "well if a psa 9 is now worth $100k, (versus the $10k it was 6 months ago) shouldn't my 6 be worth $2500 instead of $250? and all of a sudden you have a market that becomes falsely inflated and the avg collectors who save up to buy their "one big card" miss out.

I've been looking for a 1951 Bowman Willie Mays card for several years, for my 500 home run club set, preferably a PSA 5 to match my Mantle '51 Bowman. 2 years ago, you could get a PSA 5 Mays for around $1,500. Now, you can't get a PSA 3 for that. I've been the underbidder several times on Mays RCs, but always got outbid.

Same thing with Ernie Banks' '54 Topps. I've wanted a PSA 6 to match my Aaron RC. Now, it's tough to find a PSA 4 Banks for what a 6 went for 2 years ago.

Reggie Jackson: Ditto. Can't find a 7 for what an 8 was going for 2 years ago.

Steve

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Forget the Benjamins; Woodrow Wilsons.

Great reference! I wonder how may got it?

Chase would be more realistic, and I'd guess you know why, but does anyone else?

Steve B

[bobbyw8469]

Originally Posted by steve B

Great reference! I wonder how may got it?

Chase would be more realistic, and I'd guess you know why, but does anyone else?

Steve B

Yes...we've all seen the big bills.

[steve B]

I've never seen the two big ones in person, but did often win a few beers using them as bar trivia questions. The top one isn't believed to have circulated publicly but was used for transferring largish sums between banks.

Steve B

[jmb]

The $100k Wilson bill is illegal to own as it was only used between banks. It has an orange back as it is a Gold Certificate. The $10k Chase bill is the largest bill one can legally own. It was issued as both a Federal Reserve note and a Gold Certificate. Another hobby of mine.

[jimjim]

Originally Posted by glchen

The part here that concerns me, and I hope it is not the case is that I hope these 10 to 30 people that are pushing the market are truly collector/investors, and not card dealers who are in collusion with other card dealers to basically exchange inventory among themselves while pushing the value of their entire holdings up.

I have been seeing this with autographs on eBay. I have been outbid by the same 2 or 3 dealers on a number of items only to see them relisted a few weeks or months later for 2x the price. They are obviously trying to hook a novice into overpaying for the item to drive up the overall value. This business model makes me sick to my stomach. Seems like a used car salesman approach.

[Leon]

That was great. Then the kid took the card from Mint 9 to a fair 2 in one fell swoop but I don't think he cared.

edited to add, guess I didn't see the thread concerning this...

Originally Posted by begsu1013

warning: not necessarily prewar content, but i don't know any true collector that can not find joy in or would appreciate this. and i did steal this from another board, but figured some folks around here would enjoy it and the change of pace just as much.

scroll down and just watch the vid first:

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/c...eakdown-063016

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by Econteachert205

Here is My opinion of what is going on:

1. Record low interest rates pushing people toward risk assets.
2. Money laundering
3. Rampant speculation
4. People buying on emotion


Stuff like this always ends well. Be careful. Please note I do not blame pwcc for any of this, they are simply a successful business in the midst of this.

+1

[bravos4evr]

One good thing that has come from all this ,IMO, is that raw cards seem to have dropped a fair bit. I got a raw Waddell T206 for $35 that probably grades as a PSA1. I got a raw Bonds Tiffany rookie for $15, raw 68 Yaz in damn near mint condition for $8 and am about to add a very rare and desirable raw pre-war card for peanuts as well. It seems that the rush to nab high PSA graded cards has left a lot of nice stuff that is ungraded going for really low prices.

[Stetson_1883]

It may not happen within a year, or even 10, but I'm fairly confident that before I die (I'm 37), we're going to see a global economic cataclysm the likes of which we will have never seen before. I'm talking worldwide breakdowns in financial markets, collapsing governments, sudden environmental implosions, hyperinflation, homelessness, criminality all leading to utter bedlam running amok in the streets...a purge, if you will.

Speaking as a former financial academic, I believe there's simply too much interconnectedness in this age of globalization. We're all teetering very precariously in an ubsurd balancing act. One small shift somewhere in the market will cause a tital wave effect. Everything we see is unsustainable at this point. I feel a breaking point is lingering in the air and eventually it's going to crush us.

When, not if, this time comes, these pieces of cardboard won't be able to buy you a loaf of bread.

Have a nice day!

[bravos4evr]

deleted

[pokerplyr80]

Time to sell the collection and stock up on guns, ammo, bottled water, and canned food?

[Steve D]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

Time to sell the collection and stock up on guns, ammo, bottled water, and canned food?

Don't forget batteries, a flashlight, candles and matches

Steve

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by Stetson_1883

It may not happen within a year, or even 10, but I'm fairly confident that before I die (I'm 37), we're going to see a global economic cataclysm the likes of which we will have never seen before. I'm talking worldwide breakdowns in financial markets, collapsing governments, sudden environmental implosions, hyperinflation, homelessness, criminality all leading to utter bedlam running amok in the streets...a purge, if you will.

Speaking as a former financial academic, I believe there's simply too much interconnectedness in this age of globalization. We're all teetering very precariously in an ubsurd balancing act. One small shift somewhere in the market will cause a tital wave effect. Everything we see is unsustainable at this point. I feel a breaking point is lingering in the air and eventually it's going to crush us.

When, not if, this time comes, these pieces of cardboard won't be able to buy you a loaf of bread.

Have a nice day!

There is no disputing that the current debt globally is unsustainable. You will continue to see the treasury yields fall to reduce the interest expense to prolong the inevitable which is indeed a serious financial issue as you suggest. That said it isn't stopping people from buying luxury real estate, 170 million dollar pieces of art, 52 million dollar cars and so on.

If indeed we see an event of epic proportion that is as serious as you believe is coming, the best investment one could make today is guns, ammunition and silver coins. If all paper money becomes worthless than so to will trading cards but who cares. Your F'ed regardless so why not enjoy them while you can.

The super rich will be safe in an environment like the one you describe as they will buy large plots of land before paper money has no value and be self sufficient should they need to be. Anyone buying a $500,000 baseball card has to be liquid for at least 10 million or more I would think and perhaps even higher. They will find a way to survive don't you worry. In the mean time they can whip out their rare cards and be reminded of how awesome they are and also be reminded that they can afford a piece of cardboard that very few can.

[ALR-bishop]

Wish I was younger. I am going to miss all that stuff

[Paul S]

Originally Posted by Stetson_1883

It may not happen within a year, or even 10, but I'm fairly confident that before I die (I'm 37), we're going to see a global economic cataclysm the likes of which we will have never seen before. I'm talking worldwide breakdowns in financial markets, collapsing governments, sudden environmental implosions, hyperinflation, homelessness, criminality all leading to utter bedlam running amok in the streets...a purge, if you will.

Speaking as a former financial academic, I believe there's simply too much interconnectedness in this age of globalization. We're all teetering very precariously in an ubsurd balancing act. One small shift somewhere in the market will cause a tital wave effect. Everything we see is unsustainable at this point. I feel a breaking point is lingering in the air and eventually it's going to crush us.

When, not if, this time comes, these pieces of cardboard won't be able to buy you a loaf of bread.

Have a nice day!

Tidal, not tital.

Have a nice day yourself, Sir!

[griffon512]

Originally Posted by Stetson_1883

It may not happen within a year, or even 10, but I'm fairly confident that before I die (I'm 37), we're going to see a global economic cataclysm the likes of which we will have never seen before. I'm talking worldwide breakdowns in financial markets, collapsing governments, sudden environmental implosions, hyperinflation, homelessness, criminality all leading to utter bedlam running amok in the streets...a purge, if you will.

Speaking as a former financial academic, I believe there's simply too much interconnectedness in this age of globalization. We're all teetering very precariously in an ubsurd balancing act. One small shift somewhere in the market will cause a tital wave effect. Everything we see is unsustainable at this point. I feel a breaking point is lingering in the air and eventually it's going to crush us.

When, not if, this time comes, these pieces of cardboard won't be able to buy you a loaf of bread.

Have a nice day!

if we mention your promo can we get a discount on purchases from your ebay store

[sbfinley]

Thanks to Brent for posting, as from experience I attest he cares about the hobby foremost. I disagree though, and believe (using nothing but rationality) that the market has to correct at some point. Which is the most likely scenario? Something, collectible in nature, that has risen 500%-1000% in the span of a couple dozen months will continue to exponentially grow or that something collectible in nature that has risen 500%-1000% in a span of a couple dozen months will stagnate?

Common sense tells me it obviously won't continue growing at the same pace. I don't understand why the only two futures the market holds in the vast majority of collector's minds are "exponential growth" and "collapse". The two most popular phrases in the hobby are now "don't miss the train" and "don't get left holding the bag." Couldn't it, you know, just settle and correct? Sports card are hot investments right now, but I'm assuming hot investments are hot when they're cheap. I'm baffled that smart people with plenty of money (and obviously, surely, have heard of buy low - sell high) think we're just at the start of market growth. I don't know, could be wrong. Personally I don't have a dog in the hunt. If I can afford something in a 9 I buy a 9. If I can only afford a 2 my heart doesn't really break.

Happy collecting guys.

[tschock]

Originally Posted by Paul S

Tidal, not tital.

Have a nice day yourself, Sir!

Since you are proofreading, you missed "ubsurd" as well.

[WhenItWasAHobby]

First off, this latest phenomenon of skyrocketing high-grade rookie cards from the '50's and '60s makes leaves me highly skeptical. I can recall the superficial manipulation of silver prices in the late 1970's by the Hunt brothers and there was another event in the mid-90's where modern rookie cards were being horded and re-sold on the early days of the internet by a group of dealers that also ended badly. Obviously, some unknown person or persons are jacking up the prices of these cards and it's not the natural progression of hobbyists at-large.

I also have a great distrust for anything associated with PSA. These ridiculously high prices will only bring more scammers out of the woodwork and will only elevate the frequency of card altering, card restoration, phony holders and flips, questionable bump-ups among many of the well-documented PSA-related scandals.

So in the final analysis, it's the label and the holder that's the commodity - not the card and that's not a good thing.

[scotgreb]

I was following this Gibson . . . A mid-grade that sold for nearly 10x VCP.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/351767229283...%3AMEBIDX%3AIT

[4815162342]

Originally Posted by scotgreb

I was following this Gibson . . . A mid-grade that sold for nearly 10x VCP.



http://www.ebay.com/itm/351767229283...%3AMEBIDX%3AIT

That's nuts! 2016 is the year that everyone lost their darn minds.

[bobbyw8469]

That is insane. Not even two months ago one sold for $250, centered as nicely as that one. For that kind of money, you could get an '8'!! Definitely makes all the 'conspiracy theorists' come out.

[Steve D]

In April (not even 3 months ago), four PSA 8 Gibson RCs sold on ebay (all BINs), for $2,000 or less!

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1959-Topps-B...cAAOSwoudW-zav

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1959-Topps-5...MAAOSw5dNWkVFs

http://www.ebay.com/itm/BOB-GIBSON-1959-TOPPS-ROOKIE-CARD-514-PSA-8-VERY-CLEAN-/391411182030?hash=item5b21eca9ce:gvcAAOSwhkRWdfU C

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1959-Topps-B...cAAOSw-W5UrUvS

Just before those four, PWCC sold a PSA 8 for $2,577:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1959-Topps-B...YAAOSwgApXAB2N

Just after the four BINs above, another PSA 8 sold for a BIN (best offer), of $2,595 or less:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1959-TOPPS-N...wAAOSw8aNXGtPT

The mindset of the buyers these days is utter stupidity!

Steve

[Stetson_1883]

Ive got a 6.5 Gibson rookie in my store below. Any takers? Lol

[Leon]

Maybe Gibson is the next Rose?

Originally Posted by Steve D

In April (not even 3 months ago), four PSA 8 Gibson RCs sold on ebay (all BINs), for $2,000 or less!

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1959-Topps-B...cAAOSwoudW-zav

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1959-Topps-5...MAAOSw5dNWkVFs

http://www.ebay.com/itm/BOB-GIBSON-1959-TOPPS-ROOKIE-CARD-514-PSA-8-VERY-CLEAN-/391411182030?hash=item5b21eca9ce:gvcAAOSwhkRWdfU C

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1959-Topps-B...cAAOSw-W5UrUvS

Just before those four, PWCC sold a PSA 8 for $2,577:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1959-Topps-B...YAAOSwgApXAB2N

Just after the four BINs above, another PSA 8 sold for a BIN (best offer), of $2,595 or less:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1959-TOPPS-N...wAAOSw8aNXGtPT

The mindset of the buyers these days is utter stupidity!

Steve

[gawaintheknight]

My question is this - a lot of the demand for Aaron, Clemente, Rose etc. rookies has to be coming from people who enjoyed watching them play. What happens when those people die off? I mean, I admire Clemente's stats, he was a great player and person, but he died when I was four years old and so I don't have any real connection to him, so I'm not likely to ever be as passionate as someone twenty years older than me who had him as a favorite player throughout his career. I know the pool of people who saw Ruth and Gehrig and DiMaggio play is pretty small and those prices keep going up, but the pre-war stuff has rarity that the Topps stuff doesn't. I am a very small player, so I don't know what to think of this argument.

[revlis]

Thanks for the OP comments! While the numbers for high end vintage are skyrocketing, it seems to me (I have only been collecting for about a year now, so I have a limited view) that one way of looking at the rising prices is to contrast what is happening with the modern rookie autos. The prices that are being commanded there seem even more crazy to me by contrast. I can buy players such as victor robles or yoan moncada for $3,000 - 5,000 or much more and they haven't even played a day in the majors. By contrast I can buy a HOF player and lock it in as an investment. I'm not saying one is directly influencing the other but this just strikes me as interesting. Would be curious to hear others thoughts on whether or not this plays a role. Thanks

[nrm1977]

Originally Posted by 4815162342

That's nuts! 2016 is the year that everyone lost their darn minds.

Insanity! People have lost their minds...

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by nrm1977

Insanity! People have lost their minds...

depends on who is 'buying' the card and what the plan is..

[Yoda]

Can somebody explain to me why a secretary of the treasury, who admittedly has his name attached to one of the big NYC banks (Chase obviously) was nominated to be on the $10,000 bill, the largest denomination note in the land at the time. He certainly would have to be be the most obscure individual gracing our currency. Did he serve under Lincoln during the Civil War?

[egri]

Originally Posted by Yoda

Can somebody explain to me why a secretary of the treasury, who admittedly has his name attached to one of the big NYC banks (Chase obviously) was nominated to be on the $10,000 bill, the largest denomination note in the land at the time. He certainly would have to be be the most obscure individual gracing our currency. Did he serve under Lincoln during the Civil War?

During the Civil War, when the first US paper currency was issued, Chase put his face on it to boost his name recognition for a possible presidential run. That probably had something to do with the decision to put him on the $10,000 note in 1928.

[Steve D]

Well, I have to say that I have had it!

I just got outbid on a Reggie Jackson PSA 4 1969 Topps; card ended at $190 (double the recent going rate). Then I got outbid on a Steve Carlton PSA 7 1965 Topps; card went for $868 (the last PSA 8 sold for $520 on June 20th).

Edited to add that just 2 days ago, a PSA 6 Reggie Jackson 1969 Topps went for $190.

This is absolute bull$hit!

People have lost all concept of reality, and for those who are saying the prices on high-grade cards won't affect the lower grades, I say BS! It is already affecting practically ALL grades of cards!

Steve

[CMIZ5290]

Can you say Bullshit? If not, I call it... Over $2K for a Gibson 5.5?? Come on....really people? Some serious shit is going on, trust me...

[bobbyw8469]

Originally Posted by CMIZ5290

Can you say Bullshit? If not, I call it... Over $2K for a Gibson 5.5?? Come on....really people? Some serious shit is going on, trust me...

Two people sniped that card over $2,000. It jumped from an average $450 to over $2,000. Just very odd. I'm not sure what to make of all of this.

[Maraya]

It's got to be a bubble. What goes up, must come down. I saw a tremendous rise of coins in the 1980 rare coin market with wall street investors buying up rare coins. Then in the early 80's the market began to slide downwards as those investors began to sell off. it has taken years maybe couple of decades to come back. Make purchases with the head, not the heart.

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by CMIZ5290

Can you say Bullshit? If not, I call it... Over $2K for a Gibson 5.5?? Come on....really people? Some serious shit is going on, trust me...

7s are up for less than a grand. That does seem pretty strange. BS is as good a guess as any.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

7s are up for less than a grand. That does seem pretty strange. BS is as good a guess as any.

PWCC had a 7 close yesterday for just under $700. I call shenanigans on the 5.5 at 2k

[glynparson]

across the board on lower grades. i believe most of the crazy prices on lower grades are for cards doctors feel they can fix. like others have pointed out continuously you can BIN these cards for lower prices. So if you are being outbid why not buy one of the lower priced BIN? Theres a Carlton PSA 7 on right now BIN $325. So be honest and don't just sight a couple examples when you can go on ebay and BIN for 1/3 the price you are trying to claim. And You can get a Reggie PSA 4 BIN for $65 There are 2 others at BIN below a hundred. Why aren't you buying those?

[Rich Klein]

Originally Posted by Maraya

It's got to be a bubble. What goes up, must come down. I saw a tremendous rise of coins in the 1980 rare coin market with wall street investors buying up rare coins. Then in the early 80's the market began to slide downwards as those investors began to sell off. it has taken years maybe couple of decades to come back. Make purchases with the head, not the heart.

Welcome to the board. For those who don't know her - Marion is a long time well respected card dealer

Rich

[Rich Klein]

Originally Posted by Steve D

Well, I have to say that I have had it!

I just got outbid on a Reggie Jackson PSA 4 1969 Topps; card ended at $190 (double the recent going rate). Then I got outbid on a Steve Carlton PSA 7 1965 Topps; card went for $868 (the last PSA 8 sold for $520 on June 20th).

Edited to add that just 2 days ago, a PSA 6 Reggie Jackson 1969 Topps went for $190.

This is absolute bull$hit!

People have lost all concept of reality, and for those who are saying the prices on high-grade cards won't affect the lower grades, I say BS! It is already affecting practically ALL grades of cards!

Steve

No wonder I sold/traded those 2 Reggie RC's I had on consignment. Got a very nice T206 Tinker in trade for one and a 2nd year Billy Williams 7.

I thought the 34 Gehrig would go 1st from the cards that man gave me. Shows what I know

Rich

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by Leon

Maybe Gibson is the next Rose?

"Rose can't hold Gibson's jockstrap." -Sabermetrics

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

"Rose can't hold Gibson's jockstrap." -Sabermetrics

Question: who could be next?

Answer: who won the most games in the 1970s?

[scotgreb]

I knew that card looked familiar . . . thanks for the purchase Adam

[bobbyw8469]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

PWCC had a 7 close yesterday for just under $700. I call shenanigans on the 5.5 at 2k

I emailed the seller asking if the sale was indeed legit (ie, the buyer actually PAID him for the card). I have not heard anything back yet. If I do, I will post the reply here.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

I emailed the seller asking if the sale was indeed legit (ie, the buyer actually PAID him for the card). I have not heard anything back yet. If I do, I will post the reply here.

My guess is a couple of people independently adopted the strategy of putting in a ridiculously high snipe just to be sure they won it for whatever the going price is these days and that neither of them will actually pay the winning bid or the underbidder's high bid. A couple of new debtors' prisons could put an end to that sort of thing.