Most over-valued card

bravos4evr · #1 06-30-2016, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

This post boggles my mind.

Why are there different prices for similar models of cars? Is every Porsche created equal?

Condition has mattered in card collecting since I got started in 1985. It will never change.

Would you be more comfortable owning a painting that was ripped and stained then one that is in pristine condition and you can clearly see the image without any distractions to the eye?

This is true sure, but lately the difference between super excellent and super duper excellent has gone off the reservation. There once was more of a graduated price ramp from "poor" all the way to "mint" and you could see a logical path along the way. Now, you see some cards are "poor" at $500 and "mint" at $500,000 and that doesn't seem to follow any path of logic at all. I mean people spend what they want and buy what they want, and that's their bidness (the high end market doesn't impact me much) but eventually, this is all going to crash and burn as the prices don't seem to reflect any sort of rational decision making but rather a falsely manufactured profit chase. People buying $90,000 Rose PSA 9's then flipping em for $150k to another who buys hoping to flip for $200k....etc eventually, someone is gonna lose their shirt and the resulting domino effect could bring the entire high end market crashing down (thus impacting the lower markets along the way)

edited to add: paintings aren't really applicable because fine art is "one off" creations whereas cards are a manufactured commodity. There aren't 50,000 "Starry Night" original paintings floating around out there in various states of condition.

Republicaninmass · #2 06-30-2016, 02:05 PM

Greater fool theory

begsu1013 · #3 06-30-2016, 02:11 PM

.

Touch'EmAll · #4 06-30-2016, 02:21 PM

I went through the top 4 pages of PWCC looking for pre war cards from highest priced all the way down to $600. Saw not one single pre war card. No Cobb's, No Ruth's, No Gehrig's, No Walter Johnson's, etc. Hmmm.

Would love to see when some HOFer T206's or other pre war HOFers come up for auction what they go for. Then will be able to get a better handle on the stuff "we" collect.

glchen · #5 06-30-2016, 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 100backstroke

I went through the top 4 pages of PWCC looking for pre war cards from highest priced all the way down to $600. Saw not one single pre war card. No Cobb's, No Ruth's, No Gehrig's, No Walter Johnson's, etc. Hmmm.

Would love to see when some HOFer T206's or other pre war HOFers come up for auction what they go for. Then will be able to get a better handle on the stuff "we" collect.

PWCC regularly auctions all sorts of prewar card every month. I think the prewar section is already complete for June, which is why you don't see it. You can do a search on the auction history for PWCC here: Link, and you'll see plenty of Ruth, Cobb, and Johnson cards.

bravos4evr · #6 06-30-2016, 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by glchen

PWCC regularly auctions all sorts of prewar card every month. I think the prewar section is already complete for June, which is why you don't see it. You can do a search on the auction history for PWCC here: Link, and you'll see plenty of Ruth, Cobb, and Johnson cards.

Yeah they started the month with the oldest stuff and worked in order to the newest stuff right now I think. I was ogling a lot of stuff that ended up out of my range.

must admit I blew it on the lot of cards with a musial auto tho, ended up going for $50 and I assumed it would go too high and let it lapse. DOH!

glynparson · #7 06-30-2016, 05:02 PM

You don't know what you are talking about. I know for a fact two different large submitters have handed in lots in the hundreds to thousand of various 1986 stars. They only had the tens or in a very few cases the 9s slabbed. These cards never make the pop but we're still subbed for grading. That's why some big submitters only have 9-10 cards for sale. Also 200+ of a 25 cent modern card seems like a lot of subs to me. I don't care how many were produced the average owner of a 1986 topps set doesn't even know what the hell Psa or sgc is. So sorry still think you're way off base.

KCRfan1 · #8 06-30-2016, 02:22 PM

If we only had a crystal ball!

Econteachert205 · #9 07-01-2016, 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

Greater fool theory

Yes. Like I tell everyone, I'm a terrible baseball card businessperson and even I have been doing ok. It scares me.

Dpeck100 · #10 06-30-2016, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

This is true sure, but lately the difference between super excellent and super duper excellent has gone off the reservation. There once was more of a graduated price ramp from "poor" all the way to "mint" and you could see a logical path along the way. Now, you see some cards are "poor" at $500 and "mint" at $500,000 and that doesn't seem to follow any path of logic at all. I mean people spend what they want and buy what they want, and that's their bidness (the high end market doesn't impact me much) but eventually, this is all going to crash and burn as the prices don't seem to reflect any sort of rational decision making but rather a falsely manufactured profit chase. People buying $90,000 Rose PSA 9's then flipping em for $150k to another who buys hoping to flip for $200k....etc eventually, someone is gonna lose their shirt and the resulting domino effect could bring the entire high end market crashing down (thus impacting the lower markets along the way)

edited to add: paintings aren't really applicable because fine art is "one off" creations whereas cards are a manufactured commodity. There aren't 50,000 "Starry Night" original paintings floating around out there in various states of condition.

My post from another forum on Bren't post that is did on both boards. I think this sums up the current market.

Nice to see you post on the forum about the topic Brent.

One of the hardest parts of investing is being early in a trend and staying on the bull. It is so much easier said than done. Scads of people have said I wanted to buy that stock at $10 and now it is $100. Had I put x amount in it I would have x. Yeah sure. Along the way you have to deal with death defying pullbacks that can easily shake a human out. The easy part is you can go right back into the market and get your shares back essentially anytime you want just at a different price good or bad. With rare cards you can't so there is a much different attachment and fear of selling.

You make a great point about supply. The total population is only one metric to look at. The immediate supply is more important and there are a multitude of cards locked up in collections that buyers know aren't coming to market.

I personally view most high end cards as appealing to a persons bragging rights. The higher the prices go the more bragging rights associated with them and the more others want them.

I sum up the market with a line from this clip.

The illusion has become real and the more real it becomes the more desperate they want it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IVjCRWbvM4c

My wrestling cards were considered garbage, worthless, only for losers, gay and any other negative comment one can make. It wasn't just people in the card collecting community but personal friends and associates in the financial services industry. Now that they aren't worthless they are cool, awesome, so unique and so on. People hate things at low prices and love them at high prices.

Telling someone you own a perfect mint Michael Jordan rookie sounds great. The first question is how much is it worth. (2010) $6,500. Wow that is pretty cool. Fast forward to 2016 and it is $35,000+. Man that is so awesome!!! Bingo.

jason.1969 · #11 06-30-2016, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

This is true sure, but lately the difference between super excellent and super duper excellent has gone off the reservation. There once was more of a graduated price ramp from "poor" all the way to "mint" and you could see a logical path along the way. Now, you see some cards are "poor" at $500 and "mint" at $500,000 and that doesn't seem to follow any path of logic at all. I mean people spend what they want and buy what they want, and that's their bidness (the high end market doesn't impact me much) but eventually, this is all going to crash and burn as the prices don't seem to reflect any sort of rational decision making but rather a falsely manufactured profit chase. People buying $90,000 Rose PSA 9's then flipping em for $150k to another who buys hoping to flip for $200k....etc eventually, someone is gonna lose their shirt and the resulting domino effect could bring the entire high end market crashing down (thus impacting the lower markets along the way)

edited to add: paintings aren't really applicable because fine art is "one off" creations whereas cards are a manufactured commodity. There aren't 50,000 "Starry Night" original paintings floating around out there in various states of condition.

Yep.

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Lowest Valued Rarities?	ksabet	Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions	14	04-28-2014 09:58 PM
Under valued (or underappreciated autographs)	daves_resale_shop	Autograph Forum- Primarily Sports	15	07-30-2012 12:54 PM
Are all PSA 5s equally valued?	wmullis	Postwar Baseball Cards Forum (Pre-1980)	10	09-26-2011 05:12 PM
D303 - under appreciated and valued	Archive	Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions	2	04-08-2003 04:33 PM
Most under-valued vintage set?	Archive	Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions	23	04-01-2002 12:13 PM