Liquidity & Investing vs collecting

[begsu1013]

so went back a re-read this thread and this is the cornerstone of which the buying group conspiracy was bedrocked?

absolutely hysterical.


sorry. it just is.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by begsu1013

so went back a re-read this thread and this is the cornerstone of which the buying group conspiracy was bedrocked?

absolutely hysterical.


sorry. it just is.

I don't think that the posts regarding minor league cards being reissued is or was stated to be anything more than a tangent to the main discussion. But if you don't think the current market for the key cards of the '50's and 60's is a speculative boom, beware, as this is a far better time to be selling those issues going through it than buying them, IMHO. Collectibles simply don't double, triple or quadruple in such a short time when the demand is coming from legitimate collectors. I wouldn't mind sitting on your CJ Jackson for the long term, though Bob. Congrats on that one!

I think the CJ Jax was a great purchase,

Larry

[begsu1013]

thanks, larry.

and I think what is causing a lot of debate is the lack of discussion as to what the percentage levels are that things **might** come stumbling down.

many are painting w/ a very broad brush that it's some bubble. and i have agreed for the most part that what has transpired is a bit of an anomaly and a few cards very well could be targeted.

ive even given pictures or proof as to what might have caused some extremely minor part of it. but like most collectors, don't buy for the short term nor even care but since they haven't been buying all they can do is talk.

but the questions which have yet to be answered is IF this "bubble" pops...

who still believes that they will be able to buy, within 1 year to date:

a koufax 7 for $1750?
a clemente 8 for $12K?
a ryan 8 for $2500?


everyone is claiming the sky is gonna fall as if all hell is gonna break loose and the card market is gonna come crashing down to where the above prices will be back to prime.

i don't see it.

i simply don't.

i don't see them continuing to quadruple next month either and have never made such a claim or even hint that they could even double.

but again, i have yet to see anyone of these guys claiming fallacy answer the above questions in respect to pricing before the theorists came a clucking.

and, yes, the fact that this thread is the main soapbox for its inception is even sadder than me wasting my time going back and reading it over after peter pointed back to it as reference.

[botn]

Originally Posted by begsu1013

thanks, larry.

and I think what is causing a lot of debate is the lack of discussion as to what the percentage levels are that things **might** come stumbling down.

many are painting w/ a very broad brush that it's some bubble. and i have agreed for the most part that what has transpired is a bit of an anomaly and a few cards very well could be targeted.

ive even given pictures or proof as to what might have caused some extremely minor part of it. but like most collectors, don't buy for the short term nor even care but since they haven't been buying all they can do is talk.

but the questions which have yet to be answered is IF this "bubble" pops...

who still believes that they will be able to buy, within 1 year to date:

a koufax 7 for $1750?
a clemente 8 for $12K?
a ryan 8 for $2500?


everyone is claiming the sky is gonna fall as if all hell is gonna break loose and the card market is gonna come crashing down to where the above prices will be back to prime.

i don't see it.

i simply don't.

i don't see them continuing to quadruple next month either and have never made such a claim or even hint that they could even double.

but again, i have yet to see anyone of these guys claiming fallacy answer the above questions in respect to pricing before the theorists came a clucking.

and, yes, the fact that this thread is the main soapbox for its inception is even sadder than me wasting my time going back and reading it over after peter pointed back to it as reference.

Hey Bob,
I don't believe this thread is the cornerstone nor the main support for suggesting the market will make a drastic correction. It simply supports that proposition. In time we will all see. No matter how vehement an argument each side puts up it is not going to change the outcome. You obviously love the cards so keep at it.

[begsu1013]

i don't wanna keep beating the same drum.

it was the only thing that was referenced.

not trying to stir the pot.

anyways, started a simple poll which should equate to peoples overall thoughts in a much simpler fashion...

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by botn

Hey Bob,
I don't believe this thread is the cornerstone nor the main support for suggesting the market will make a drastic correction. It simply supports that proposition. In time we will all see. No matter how vehement an argument each side puts up it is not going to change the outcome. You obviously love the cards so keep at it.

Right on with that!

Highest regards to all expressing their opinions,

Larry

[cardcountry]

For me, I have felt that many of the price increases that we've recently seen should've already happened. For the past year or so it hasn't made sense to me why 63 rose 8 was a $4k card, 68 Ryan 8 a $3500 card, 59 Gibson a $1500 card, 68 Bench a $300 card while Clemente, aaron, mantle, Mays were so much higher. Even banks and kaline in Psa 8 were quite a bit higher than those.

[Exhibitman]

One year is too short a time frame to ask the question. There is no reason to assume that the purchasers (assuming legit sales) would have any reason to bail out after only one year. As I recall, after the events of 2008 there were still strong auctions of cards for about a year. Collectors who overpay for cards tend to hold them, not liquidate them, unless forced by circumstance. Dealers trying to move inventory tend to sell into the market, though many dealers, weekend warriors especially, tend to sit on overpriced inventory rather than moving it, hence the eBay virtual museums that some dealers run.

Will prices come back down? Probably. That has been the pattern with every hot streak category in the past. Will they come all the way back down? Probably not. The questions are when, why and by how much.

All I can say is that if I had a card I was into for $4,000 that had gone to $16,000 in a short time I would probably sell it and buy a lower grade one with a tidy profit to spend on more cards.