Liquidity & Investing vs collecting

[Peter_Spaeth]

Craig stop thinking like a collector or normal human being. The flip is now its own reality. None of that matters to the commodity trader.

[sbfinley]

The only thing I've taken from this thread is that he doesn't like people who complain that the market is manipulated because it isn't. But in the next paragraph he stated he would manipulate the market to protect an investment.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by sbfinley

The only thing I've taken from this thread is that he doesn't like people who complain that the market is manipulated because it isn't. But in the next paragraph he stated he would manipulate the market to protect an investment.

Correction he said he IS doing it.

I can tell you all this. I don't buy a 50k Namath rookie unless I am willing to buy 50 of them for that. I consider my investments before I make them. I encourage those who don't think this way to realize there are others like me out there that are willing to buy not only one card, but all of them for "X" price and control the market.
This is happening and it bugs me that no one else realizes it. I can't convince you all that this is right or wrong, but I'm telling you it's happening because I am doing it and will continue to do so.

[SAllen2556]

My limited understanding of economics suggests that if one person were to buy 50 Namath Rookies and thus greatly reduce supply, then the price would indeed increase, but with the increased price, demand would also decrease. If demand decreases, then the price decreases. If I can't get a Namath rookie at a price I can afford, don't I just eventually move on to Joe Montana?

Also, if supply decreases, production usually increases. So wouldn't more people who wouldn't have previously sold their Namath card now put it in the market, thus increasing supply again and causing prices to decrease. I seem to remember something about price equilibrium.

I have a headache.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by sbfinley

The only thing I've taken from this thread is that he doesn't like people who complain that the market is manipulated because it isn't. But in the next paragraph he stated he would manipulate the market to protect an investment.

He's got the market cornered on tiny border cobbs. It's like ...."hey, where did those borders go?"

[Baseball Bob]

All this talk reminds me of 1999. Anyone remember when the "new economy" Internet stocks were going to replace boring old blue chip stocks? When the market was rising exponentially, and tech stock P/Es were in the 50-100 range? Well, any card made post 1975 is a "new economy" product. The price is rising due principally due to speculation, greed and irrationality, rather than value based on economic fundamentals. The supply of Jordan rookies is nearly unlimited - how many dozens or even hundreds more will be found in dresser drawers, attics and safe deposit boxes in the next ten years? Tons. How many Gehrigs? Very, very few.
Folks, does'nt anyone recall what happened to the NASDAQ in 2002? That's where Jordan rookies are headed. The crash is coming. Oversupply craters a market. Period. Liquidity ends when the speculators run for the exits. They will, and they own the market, just like on Wall Street. They don't get screwed. It's the exuberant little guys who bite the big one.
Just a cheery thought on a Wednesday evening!

[Beastmode]

Originally Posted by sbfinley

The only thing I've taken from this thread is that he doesn't like people who complain that the market is manipulated because it isn't. But in the next paragraph he stated he would manipulate the market to protect an investment.

Justin "I can definitely see the benefit in retractions to discover max bids" Cornett is back. The same guy that had 18 retractions in 6 months?

Your theory that high fees prevent shilling at AH's is laughable. You must be from Texas?

If you can use all your little tricks to pump up prices, more power to you. We all win when you win.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The flip is now its own reality.

Whoa, that's a very deep thought...

[boneheadandrube]

If you want to test your investment practices using those Cobbs, try selling them for more than 75% of what you paid to someone other than the person/persons who sold them to you, or back to yourself in an auction. It would be wise to learn not to depend solely on the "Certification" applied to the cards you are investing in. Bad certification is a very big market variable on the high end, especially in that company's holders. You aren't the first person to approach this hobby the way you are and you aren't the first to do so with the handicap of "flip dependancy". You'll get better at picking out solid investments if you do and it will be more fun as well. This is meant to be helpful*

[ALR-bishop]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Whoa, that's a very deep thought...

Agreed, Adam, sort of like The Matrix

[Bpm0014]

Both the BAT ON COBB and WAGNER..... both have the same upward curvature "cut/trim" to the first half of the bottom of the card if you look closely. I may not be explaining that clearly, but if you look closely they both have the same cut.

[Sean]

Brendan, the Wagner seems to have more of a curvature on the top of the card. The Cobb Bat On may have that same curve on the bottom of the card.

[Stampsfan]

Originally Posted by kickitup

I don't post often, but I feel compelled to share some thoughts. Most of you will likely disagree, and that's ok too. I hope eventually you get it.

A pet peeve of mine... I despise the arrogance of suggesting that if you disagree, you somehow don't get it.

Originally Posted by Sean

Brendan, the Wagner seems to have more of a curvature on the top of the card. The Cobb Bat On may have that same curve on the bottom of the card.

It obviously appears the "trimmer" started getting lazy, overlaying these two cards top to bottom when performing a single task.

[Dpeck100]

I have been active in stocks for 19 years and have been a full service broker for the past 12 and nothing I have ever touched or recommended has even come close to the rates of return I have experienced with cards. This hobby boggles my mind. You can take a raw card, pay a fee and literally print money. Amazing.

That said the liquidity of cards can't be compared to financial assets. There are a few cards like a 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan where anyone can list one on EBAY and achieve a near market price at anytime but that isn't the case for most cards. There is also a very high spread from the sale price to the net price that occurs from fees.

If you were to measure the performance of many of the top cards in the hobby they have crushed what a diversified portfolio consisting of stocks and bonds in the past ten years have returned and clearly many have been fantastic investments. That said cards do not pay interest or dividends and you can only win one way and that is price appreciation. This is a significant drawback that must be considered. Playing the buy high and sell higher game can certainly work but clearly buying today vs. a few months ago must be done with some caution.

For me personally I put financial savings ahead of cards as I would much rather have a large financial base that can create cash flow and only use excess cash to buy and generally sell a few things when I buy something at today's prices as it doesn't feel like a good investment to me. If someone wants to dump a large portion of their net worth into cards I don't see a problem with it if retirement is far off and they have great cash flow. That said for someone in their later years they must be ready to sell and for a lot of collectors myself included I hold my best cards for personal enjoyment and can't imagine selling them which obviously would be a problem for someone approaching retirement.

The other huge issue is buying the right cards. While it has been exciting to watch many sky rocket there are an even greater number that can't be sold for much and aren't participating in this move higher. Lately it has felt like you could throw darts at the market as star cards have been cruising higher but in reality if many want to convert their paper profits to cash the market for cards is not deep enough for a lot of people to head for the exits at the same time. When you see large price gaps in bids this suggests that if just a few people back away cards prices can fall and if those same buyers become sellers it creates even further problems.

The OP I recall was an oil trader and he should know that trading cards aren't even remotely as liquid as financial instruments. If one wants to dive really deep into this issue you could attempt to rank cards in terms of risk and segment cards with what would be considered lower beta vs. higher beta etc. That said when you see cards doubling and tripling in weeks you could throw a lot of that research out the window as the market for many cards is moving in a parabolic state and is extremely unpredictable. Because there is no way to hedge cards or bet against cards the market is more akin to an IPO when it gets listed as it can go vertical as there isn't artificial supply that can be thrown at it and the only way to make money is to go long the stock and it simply becomes a game of hot potato. If we are experiencing a hot potato game right now there will be some people that truly regret getting involved.